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Electoral Votes


Posted 11.02.2012 | Comedy

Sure, New York and the rest of the east coast may have been ravaged by Hurricane Sandy, but count your blessings, people. You could be living in "post...

Computational Thinking About Politics

Robert St. Amant | Posted 12.30.2012 | Science
Robert St. Amant

On The Atlantic Wire Gabriel Snyder gives what we'd call a combinatorial analysis of the presidential election. I like the analysis not for what it says about the possible outcome but because it illustrates an influential idea in computer science, called computational thinking.

Xbox/YouGov Panel Quantifies Romney's First Debate Victory and Obama's Subsequent Debate Rebound

David Rothschild | Posted 12.30.2012 | Politics
David Rothschild

What has been the cumulative impact of these changes over the last month? Overall, Romney has improved roughly 2 percentage points with Xbox LIVE users, and those gains occurred almost entirely during the period between the first two debates.

2012 Electoral Math -- One Week Out

Chris Weigant | Posted 12.29.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

The real sword of Damocles hanging over the White House right now is this Friday's release of the October unemployment figures. If the numbers are bad, it could give Romney the last-second momentum he needs. If the numbers are good, Obama could waltz to victory.

The Change We Don't Need

Gov. Jennifer M. Granholm | Posted 12.26.2012 | Politics
Gov. Jennifer M. Granholm

Now, Mitt Romney said in his economic speech today he's about "real change/big change" and the president, he says, is about "the status quo." But the growth of government spending is the lowest it's been in 60 years, since President Eisenhower.

Tie Goes to the Runner: Welcome to the Romney-Biden Administration

Terry Connelly | Posted 12.23.2012 | Politics
Terry Connelly

A 269-269 outcome is feasible in a number of hypothetical state-by-state outcomes that would not strain anyone's credulity. There is, however, one complication with that scenario -- two, really.

Snapshots and Movies: Most Polls Are Snapshots, but the Xbox / YouGov Panel Shows Voters in Motion

David Rothschild | Posted 10.22.2012 | Politics
David Rothschild

he vice presidential debate stopped the bleeding for Obama and the second presidential debate on Oct. 16 gave Obama a few strong days. During this entire time the number of undecided voters has slowly drifted downward.

Why the Constitution's Framers Didn't Want Us to Directly Elect the President

Eric Black | Posted 12.17.2012 | Politics
Eric Black

The strange tale of how the electoral system came about puts some of its weird features into context. Once you get this context, it is at least understandable what the Framers thought they were doing.

10 Reasons Why the Electoral College Is a Problem

Eric Black | Posted 12.16.2012 | Politics
Eric Black

The Electoral College system further distorts the presidential campaign by causing the candidates to grant extra weight to the parochial needs of the swing states.

2012 Electoral Math -- Obama's Debate Cliff

Chris Weigant | Posted 12.15.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Mitt Romney got an enormous bounce out of the first debate. This translated into him flipping two states to his column -- something he hasn't been able to do in quite a while.

Xbox Live/YouGov Polling

David Rothschild | Posted 12.15.2012 | Politics
David Rothschild

So many people today watch TV with a second screen around and we are giving them something fun, related, and meaningful to do with extra energy; we have enacted the promise that is interactive television with the hope that it will lead us towards the future of information aggregation.

Our Electoral College System Is Weird -- And Not in a Good Way

Eric Black | Posted 12.15.2012 | Politics
Eric Black

The Electoral College system is pretty weird. No other country has anything like it (and bear in mind, every country with a written constitution has had the benefit of the U.S. precedent when they designed their own system).

2012 Electoral Math -- Debate Effects Remain to Be Seen

Chris Weigant | Posted 12.08.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

National polls have pulled back into a neck-and-neck contest. This is all fun for the pundits, who (pre-debate) were on the verge of declaring the race all but over (and, hence, boring), but we hasten to remind everyone that this is not how we elect presidents.

2012 Electoral Math -- Obama Solidifies Bounce

Chris Weigant | Posted 11.26.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Of course, we are heading into debate season, so things could always change, but at the moment it is looking decidedly good for an Obama win. Here's how the election would break down if held today.

Why Ohio Is So Pivotal for Romney

David Rothschild | Posted 11.25.2012 | Politics
David Rothschild

The flip state is Ohio at 77.3 percent for Obama and 22.7 percent for Romney. This is a great, simple approximation for the likelihood of the election.

Iowa Just Became More Important

William Laney | Posted 11.25.2012 | Politics
William Laney

The state of Iowa has only six electoral votes, but nevertheless, it is making a major impact on the presidential race.

Obama Reaches His Highest Likelihood of Reelection

David Rothschild | Posted 11.17.2012 | Politics
David Rothschild

As the summer turned towards Labor Day, Obama gained ground every day that Romney did not. Time is kind to incumbents and leading candidates. The burden is now completely on Romney and/or Ryan to move the needle in their four debates

2012 Electoral Math -- Obama's Bounce

Chris Weigant | Posted 11.17.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

The big question in the next few weeks will be if Obama's impressive convention bounce will hold or fade away. This will set the stage for the first presidential debate, which could prove to be decisive.

Three States Hold the Keys to the Election

David Rothschild | Posted 10.29.2012 | Politics
David Rothschild

If you have limited time to devote to following the presidential election this fall, I suggest you follow the data on just three states: Florida, Virginia, and Ohio. Mitt Romney's only likely path to victory over Barack Obama is to win those three states.

2012 Electoral Math -- Pre-Convention Baseline

Chris Weigant | Posted 10.22.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Now is a good time to look at the state of the race, to establish a baseline to measure all this expected frenzied movement.

2012 Electoral Math -- Ups and Downs

Chris Weigant | Posted 10.08.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Since the last time we took such a snapshot, roughly three weeks ago, both candidates have shown some firming up of their positions, but the good news for both candidates is mixed with some softening as well.

2012 Electoral Math -- Mixed Pictures

Chris Weigant | Posted 09.17.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Since the last time we checked in, two states have moved toward Romney, two states have moved toward Obama, and three states have mixed news.

Obama vs. Romney: Strategies to Capture Critical Boomers in Battleground States

Brent Green | Posted 09.10.2012 | Politics
Brent Green

America today is politically divided among all age segments. However, older voters have some problems of unique concern, informed by generation and current life circumstances, thus inviting attention when campaigns target advertising.

"Oregon, Oregon, Oregon"

Derrick Kitts | Posted 09.04.2012 | Politics
Derrick Kitts

Believe it or not, 2012 is shaping up to be all about the Beaver State. With innocuous races for the Oregon legislature and an under the radar non-partisan race for statewide office, Oregon is the sleeper state up for grabs in 2012.

2012 Electoral Math

Chris Weigant | Posted 08.25.2012 | Politics
Chris Weigant

This column series will examine the race between Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama in the only way that is useful for actually predicting its outcome: a state-by-state look at how each candidate is doing. National polling is almost completely useless in election prognostication.