LONDON -- The main determinants of an emerging economy's ability actually to emerge, sustainably, are politics, policy and all that is meant by the institutions of governance. More precisely, although countries can ride waves of growth and exploit commodity cycles despite having dysfunctional political institutions, the real test comes when times turn less favorable and a country needs to change course.
One of the most significant changes since the declaration of the Millennium Development Goals, set to conclude this year, is that the private sector is now seen as a key stakeholder. With governments reneging on prior commitments, and given the projected $3 trillion to $4.5 trillion price tag to achieve the SDGs, corporate participation is essential.
Over a year has passed since the Ebola outbreak in West Africa began. In that narrow window of time, the disease has claimed more than 10,000 lives, stalled economic growth, and hampered -- if not reversed -- gains the region had made in strengthening public health infrastructure and service delivery.
Behind the numbers lies an unusually complex set of forces shaping the world economy. Some, such as the decline in the price of oil and the evolution of exchange rates, are highly visible. Some, from crisis legacies to lower potential growth, play more of behind-the-scenes role but are important nevertheless. Let me briefly review them.
In 2013, McKinsey & Company predicted that by 2025 almost 230 Fortune Global 500 companies would be based in cities in the emerging markets. Whilst I can't yet comment on whether this prediction is likely to come true, it is interesting to look at how companies are shifting their focus to these developing countries.