Economics is a cruel game. The stakes are life and death. The driving theory is simplistic, mechanical, with a cauldron of emotion and judgment bubbling just below the surface.
When everyone is going in one direction, it's worth taking the opposite route, the contrarian option, the "road less traveled." Here is my recommendation for the next few years.
Greece continues to gamble with its eurozone membership with the misguided belief that it can soften demands for austerity, without threatening its bailout. Instead, it is the lack of a sufficient firewall, rather than a commitment to Greece remaining within the e
Haven't similar experiences in the debt crises of the 1980's, Russia in 1998, and Argentina in 2001 taught us that waiting too long to restructure in situations of clear insolvency can be more costly in the end?
Americans must wonder how a faltering economy in Greece (population: approximately 11 million) can cause a rupture in the entire economic foundation of the eurozone, which is supported by a population of 332 million. Don't worry, we all ask ourselves this question from time to time.
The only real solution for insolvent Europe is to explicitly default on the debt to a level that brings PIIGS countries to a debt to GDP ratio below 60 percent.
I checked my email for the last time and found out that my editor wanted me to go to Greece to cover the elections there. The last time I left my son for more than a day was when he was 3 1/2.
The Greeks have deactivated the switch that threatened to blow Europe sky high. Antonis Samaras's New Democracy party victory in Greece does not in and of itself solve Athens' problems, nor those plaguing the rest of Europe's capitals. The boxer is still on the ropes, but the bell has been rung, ending the round; and that gives Europe time to recover, though it will have to keep fighting. In addition this week, if seen as part and parcel to what happened in Greece, the result of France's legislative elections and the majority that President Hollande now boasts both act as a serious warning to Angela Merkel in Germany. The message is clear: we are willing to go forward, but the pernicious austerity strategy that is pushing us into the abyss must be reconsidered.
For European leaders, the central challenge is bigger, and has been mounting for years: How to stabilize a single monetary union that allows for 17 different fiscal policies
This crisis is not happening quickly. It's more of a slow-motion train wreck -- Greece's crisis started in 2009. But that leaves a puzzle -- why is the American stock market not reacting to obvious warning signs?
It's not that economies are too slow to appease markets. It's that the markets have too much power to destroy economies. Let's not forget -- this entire crisis was caused because markets mispriced risk.
Greek voters are tired of the scaremongering, tired of being portrayed as the poster-child for the ills of Europe and tired of the broken promises made by the "major" parties.
The general election of June 17 is like no other election in the history of our country, and no candidate seems to be addressing the one ingredient that could make a great difference: the sense of honor deeply engrained in every Greek.
Whichever way you look at it, Sunday's election in Greece entails major uncertainties. What is clear is that, by itself, the outcome is very unlikely to immediately end turmoil and uncertainty. Indeed, even a simplified analysis entails many permutations and combinations.
Presuming a uniformity of social circumstances and economic opportunity when they do not exist, and cannot be enforced, inevitably leads to peonage for some and riches for others.
I think this is only the tip of the iceberg. The analysis I did to evaluate the countries across the region showed the year-on-year debt of each country and the cumulative total debt.