"Argo" has producers and actors behind it, a push that gives Affleck's film the momentum of a runaway freight train. Meanwhile, we're all still waiting for "Lincoln" to win one significant Oscar precursor.
At this time last year, John Hawkes and Richard Gere were guaranteed Oscar nominatons (neither were nominated) and "Beasts of the Southern Wild" was the next "The Tree of Life" (it was; "Beasts" earned four nominations). From sea level here in New York, it doesn't seem like any of the films at the 2013 festival have popped quite like those.
Look, I get why rooting for Steven Spielberg can feel like rooting for the New York Yankees (and, no, let's not have that argument again), but I think he overcame his worst instincts in this movie and created what you might call a late masterpiece. It's not my favorite movie of the year, but it's the strongest candidate for Best Picture, in my opinion.
By the time Oscar night rolls around, we hope that our model will feature the most reliable picks anywhere -- supplementing the educated guesswork that constitutes most efforts at awards prognostication. (I say supplementing, not supplanting, because we are, after all, avid fans and practitioners of such guesswork.)
"It's difficult to see a scenario where 'Lincoln' doesn't romp," wrote Tim Grierson and Will Leitch over at Deadspin following the Oscar nominations on Thursday morning. Which would be true, except for the "difficult" part. Because any Oscar discussion that doesn't allow for the possibility of "Silver Linings Playbook" winning Best Picture seems incomplete at best.
It's all over but the shouting. On Thursday, the 2013 Oscar nominations will be announced by Seth MacFarlane and Emma Stone. Finally! Ahead, some fearless forecasting of what to expect from the 85th annual Academy Award nominations.
Happy New Year, Mike! We've entered the final countdown -- ballots are due on this week, meaning a lot of Academy Awards voters are going to have to learn how to use the internet.
Let's keep this short, as there are stockings to hang and reindeers to listen for: It's the night before Christmas, and the only thing stirring is controversy about Zero Dark Thirty and the nationwide opening of Les Miserables.
Welcome to For Your Consideration, HuffPost Entertainment's weekly breakdown of all things Oscar. Between now and Feb. 25, 2013, executive arts and en...
If I sound like a person who disrespects the impact of the Globes, that's because I am. The Globes mean nothing ever, especially in 2012, with the Oscar nominations being announced before the HFPA hand out their trophies.
Hello, Mike! After weeks of speculating, the first official Academy Awards 2013 precursor has arrived: The New York Film Critics Circle spent five hours handing out awards on Monday, a time-sucking act of futility that rivals the actual Oscar telecast. The big winners were "Zero Dark Thirty," Kathryn Bigelow, Daniel Day-Lewis, Rachel Weisz (!), Matthew McConaughey (!!) and Sally Field. While that list includes some surprises (see the exclamation points above), the big shocks, to me, are who and what didn't make the cut.
One last Argo vs. Lincoln vs. Les Miserables note: Can we imagine a scenario where one of them wins Best Picture and another wins Best Director? Like Les Miserables and Ben Affleck, or Argo and Steven Spielberg?
I had always thought of Les Misérables as something that was (A) kind of complicated, (B) beloved by a lot of people and (C) impossible for me to catch up on at this point in my life. It would be like deciding all of a sudden, "You know, maybe it's time I took up polo."
Spielberg's film will have big support from the acting branch (three acting nominations seem like a forgone conclusion), Tony Kushner's script is a mortal lock for Best Adapted Screenplay, its below-the-line contributors (specifically composer John Williams, cinematographer Janusz Kaminski and editor Michael Kahn) are all respected past winners and nominees and it's the most culturally relevant film of the bunch -- perhaps even more than either "Argo" or "Zero Dark Thirty."
Well, it's official: We're now less than two months away from the 85th annual Oscar nominations. Are we having fun yet? ("Party Down" references never die.)
Best Actress has nothing on Best Actor. Consider the lineup of male performers with a legitimate chance of being nominated: Daniel Day-Lewis, Joaquin Phoenix, Denzel Washington, John Hawkes, Anthony Hopkins, Hugh Jackman, Bradley Cooper, Ben Affleck and Jamie Foxx. Truthfully, I could make an argument for any of those guys -- especially Cooper, who is a revelation in "Silver Linings Playbook"; he gives a performance that will forever change how audiences view him as an actor.