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Gary Langer

THE WILDCATTERS: A Dead French Mathematician Says Donald Trump Is a Loser

Keith Gaddie | Posted 03.08.2016 | Politics
Keith Gaddie

Want to make a political scientist's head explode? Explain to them how Donald Trump is a winner because he is leading polls and winning crowded primaries. In the back of their mind, the political scientist is thinking "he's 'winning' because the vote is fractured," and resisting the urge to say "the worst way to pick someone for office is to just take the person with the most votes, but not a majority."

Obama Suffers Opinion Poll Fallout From Iraq, Afghanistan Wars

Los Angeles Times | Andrew Malcolm | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics

Obama's approvals began high like Bush's but have now cratered dangerously close to Lyndon Johnson's when he abandoned a reelection bid....

A Lesson in Caveat Emptor

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

What is the most important lesson to be learned from the emerging Daily Kos - Research 2000 polling scandal? Two prominent pollsters, Gallup Poll Edit...

Transparency and Pollster Ratings: Update

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

[Update: On Friday night, I linked to my column for this week, which appeared earlier than usual. It covers the controversy over Nate Silver's pollste...

AAPOR 2010: Public Opinion in Afghanistan

Kristen Soltis Anderson | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Kristen Soltis Anderson

If you think pollsters in the US have it rough - difficulty getting folks to agree to participate, difficulty finding good samples given the rise of c...

Health Reform and the Will of the People

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

Both sides of the epic health care reform battle continued to invoke the view of "the people" over the last few days. A few hours after the bill passe...

Update: How Accurate Were the Benchmarks?

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

Regular readers will recall that after ABC News polling director Gary Langer posted a new paper on a study conducted by a team of Stanford University ...

Unusually Strong Disapproval?

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

Gary Langer has a blog post up today worth reading in full, but I'll block quote two paragraphs to get you to read the rest. First, his lead: A deb...

Doug Rivers: Second Thoughts About Internet Surveys

Guest Pollster | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Guest Pollster

Douglas Rivers is president and CEO of YouGov/Polimetrix and a professor of political science and senior fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Instit...

Quality, Standards and Disclosure: An Inbox Overflowing

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

Over the last few weeks, I had the chance to attend two different events that covered similar ground: a day-long conference on survey quality organize...

The Pleasure of "I Told You So"

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

"Told ya so." That's how ABC News polling director Gary Langer begins a blog post explaining that polls from ABC News predicted today's report of a 2....

The Return of "Outliers"

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

Somewhere during the conventions, I got out of the habit of posting these. So for those new to the site, here is a collection of links to "outliers" -...

Bradley-Wilder: New Data on Interviewer Race

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

Just yesterday, I expressed a bit of frustration that much of the recent media focus on the "Bradley-Wilder Effect." Much of it, and much of the debat...

Weekend "Outliers" (Illustrated!)

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

[Brought to you on Monday morning due to a Sunday evening power outage...] Gary Langer and the ABC Polling Unit chart Obama's ascent in delegates and ...

Moore: The Frontrunner Myths

David Moore | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
David Moore

Today's Guest Pollster article comes from David W. Moore, a senior fellow with the Carsey Institute at the University of New Hampshire. He is a former...

Pre-RBC "Outliers"

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

Brian Schaffner unpacks the Michigan exit poll results that asked which candidate the respondent would have voted for if all the candidates had been o...

"Outliers" for May 28

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

Gary Langer reviews the two new California polls on same-sex marriage and offers reasons why they produce divergent results. Kathy Frankovic thinks th...

Moore: "Noise and Clamor" 2008

David Moore | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
David Moore

Today's Guest Pollster article comes from David W. Moore, a senior fellow with the Carsey Institute at the University of New Hampshire. He is a former...

AAPOR Interviews Wrap-Up

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

As a wrap-up to my coverage of this year's annual conference of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR), here are links to all of...

What's Up With The National Polls?

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

Last week, Democratic pollster Mark Mellman used his column in The Hill to argue that one could use "same-poll to same-poll comparisons" to argue that...

Age or Education?

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

Amidst the personal craziness last week, I neglected to link to two columns from network pollsters that provide some valuable data from the exit polls...

Pennsylvania Follow-Up

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

As of this writing, the Pennsylvania Secretary of State reports that Hillary Clinton defeated Barack Obama yesterday by a 9.2% margin (54.6% to 45.4%)...

Live Blogging Pennsylvania Exit Polls and Vote Returns

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

I will be live-blogging here starting very soon on what the exit polls will have to tell us about the exit polls. More details to follow, but please f...

Pennsylvania Wrap Up

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

We have been busy here over the last day or two, including links to 8 new polls that interviewed through Sunday night, so I am going to try use this p...

Final Update: Pennsylvania by Race, Education & Gender

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

On the eve of the Pennsylvania primary, here is one last update on the results by race, education and gender and measured by the Quinnipiac University...