Does the rise of Trump herald an era of home-grown fascism? Human intelligence and vast quantities of metadata seem ill-equipped to help forecast geopolitical events at this scale. Despite decades of sophisticated political science and game theorizing, the truth is that we are very bad at anticipating great historic turns. Why?
The complex but irreversible integration of the European continent and the renaissance of the Chinese civilization arguably constitute the most significant factors of change of our time, the wise articulation of these two processes can only be mutually enriching and a source of growth and stability for our global village.
After six years of silent preparations, the Obama White House has recently unveiled some bold diplomatic initiatives. As these moves unfold, Obama is revealing himself as one of those rare grandmasters who appear every generation or two with an ability to go beyond mere foreign policy and play that ruthless global game called geopolitics.
As Saudi Arabia continues to ramp up production, taking market share away from U.S. shale producers, U.S. shale is being forced to cut back. This story has been told many times over the past few months, but the data is finally confirming the success of Saudi Arabia's strategy, albeit a minor one thus far.
It's often said that you can't get economists to agree on anything. Well, oil economists certainly can't agree on future prices, with commentators suggesting anything from $20 to $200. Seldom has there been such a discrepancy in forecasting, though the median forecasts seem to be somewhere between $60 and $70.
The recent deal between Cyprus and Russia may seemingly have no real short-term impact on the EU or Russia's politics in the Balkans. But it is in fact part of Russia's grand design to bypass the sanctions, stabilize and increase its foreign expansion in the EU, the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East.