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Giorgio Cafiero

Libya's Descent to a Failed State

Giorgio Cafiero | Posted 04.07.2015 | World
Giorgio Cafiero

The failure of last year's election to achieve political unity in Libya was most evident when Fajr Libya, or "Libya Dawn" -- a diverse coalition of armed groups that includes an array of Islamist militias -- rejected the election's outcome and seized control of Tripoli.

Bahrain's Jihadist Dilemma

Daniel Wagner | Posted 09.18.2014 | Politics
Daniel Wagner

Bahrain finds itself in an increasingly untenable position. If it misplays its hand, or events in the region outpace the government's ability to manage domestic politics, the Bahraini government could find itself facing a dire crisis in the near future.

Why MH370 Will Not Change Chinese/Malaysia Relations

Daniel Wagner | Posted 07.20.2014 | World
Daniel Wagner

In spite of the bilateral tension created by MH370, China is likely to remain cautious about taking actions that could jeopardize its partnership with Malaysia, given the country's importance in the region's geopolitical landscape and its warming relations with Washington.

What MH370 Says About Malaysia's Challenge

Daniel Wagner | Posted 05.26.2014 | World
Daniel Wagner

Malaysia sits at a crossroads. The government has been widely criticized for a lack of perceived transparency, and although the legacy of semi-authoritarian rule remains strong, it's slowly changing in some fundamental ways.

The Geopolitics of Gay Rights in Uganda

Daniel Wagner | Posted 05.06.2014 | Politics
Daniel Wagner

Last week's passage into law of the controversial anti-gay bill in Uganda puts the country among an elite club of nations noteworthy for their backpedaling on human and civil rights. As a host of a U.S. military presence, Washington has long viewed Kampala as a strategic ally in Central and East Africa.

Turkey and Iran's Growing Alliance

Daniel Wagner | Posted 04.23.2014 | Politics
Daniel Wagner

Declaring a desire to stand "shoulder to shoulder" with Iran in combating terrorism, and driven by Turkey's evolving policy toward Syria, Erdoğan's trip highlighted Ankara and Tehran's tendency to pursue mutual interests when their paths cross.

France's 19th Century Foreign Policy Fails in 2014

Daniel Wagner | Posted 03.23.2014 | World
Daniel Wagner

Since Operation Sangaris was launched, however, the French military has proven powerless to stop the sectarian violence, which took more than a thousand lives in Bangui last month.

Regional Implications of a South Sudanese Civil War

Daniel Wagner | Posted 03.09.2014 | World
Daniel Wagner

The deadly turmoil that erupted in Juba last month threatens to ignite a full scale ethnic civil war across South Sudan. If peace talks between the government and the White Army rebels fail to stem the violence, a potential genocide may result.

Can Democrats and Jihadists Coexist in Tunisia?

Daniel Wagner | Posted 09.05.2014 | World
Daniel Wagner

While Tunisia has been spared the large-scale human rights abuses and chaotic turmoil of the other post-Arab Spring states, a growing al Qaeda presence threatens to destabilize the country and undermine the democratic aspirations that fueled the Jasmine Revolution.

Is the Turkish-Israeli Rapprochement for Real?

Daniel Wagner | Posted 02.15.2014 | World
Daniel Wagner

The two states' shared economic and security interests have created an unusual dynamic that permits both to extend an open hand, as well as a clenched fist.

The Central African Republic's Coming Genocide

Daniel Wagner | Posted 02.02.2014 | World
Daniel Wagner

The chaos in the CAR has potential to negatively impact its neighboring states further, especially given the region's ongoing conflicts and instability.

Dim Prospects for Peace in Southern Thailand

Daniel Wagner | Posted 01.25.2014 | World
Daniel Wagner

Since February of this year the Malaysian government has sponsored talks in Kuala Lumpur (KL) with the aim of ending the bloodshed that has plagued southern Thailand for nearly a decade.

The Paradoxical Afghan/Iranian Alliance

Daniel Wagner | Posted 09.05.2014 | World
Daniel Wagner

Humanitarian crises, sectarian clashes, and terrorism in Afghanistan will inevitably impact Iran. The Iranian government holds no illusions about Afghanistan's myriad of problems, nor is there any expectation that these will soon be resolved.

Is the U.S. Losing Saudi Arabia to China?

Daniel Wagner | Posted 01.23.2014 | World
Daniel Wagner

Saudi Arabia's declared intention to pivot away from the U.S. in foreign policy implies a shift toward Beijing, which predates both the Obama presidency and the Arab Awakening.

Japan's Influence in the Middle East

Daniel Wagner | Posted 01.23.2014 | World
Daniel Wagner

Although it is not widely recognized as such, Japan is one of the most influential economic actors in the Persian Gulf -- something that is unlikely to change in the near or medium term.

Syria's Divisive Impact on Yemen

Daniel Wagner | Posted 01.23.2014 | World
Daniel Wagner

The violent clashes that erupted last month between Sunni Islamists and Shi'ite rebels in Yemen's Amran province were partly a reaction to U.S. President Obama's declaration of his intention to launch a military strike against Syria.

The Evolving Landscape in Syria and Implications for Greater Kurdistan

Daniel Wagner | Posted 11.06.2013 | World
Daniel Wagner

The ease with which violence in Iraq and Syria has negatively impacted surrounding countries underscores the declining significance of borders throughout the Levant.

Germany's Arms Sales and the Middle East

Daniel Wagner | Posted 10.23.2013 | World
Daniel Wagner

It is no secret that the German military equipment being purchased by Saudi Arabia will most likely be used to crack down on anti-government demonstrations inside Bahrain, and/or the Shia-majority region of eastern Saudi Arabia.

Implications of Iran and Sudan's Growing Alliance

Daniel Wagner | Posted 10.12.2013 | World
Daniel Wagner

Recent geopolitical developments across the Middle East and Africa have added momentum to Iran and Sudan's strategic partnership, an alliance driven primarily by an interest in weakening the power of Israel, and by extension the U.S., throughout East Africa.

Can Oman and Iran's 'Special' Relationship Last?

Daniel Wagner | Posted 09.05.2014 | World
Daniel Wagner

While Oman continues to use its leverage to thwart a military confrontation in the Arabian Gulf, officials in Muscat have accepted that their influence is naturally limited, and they have taken actions to prepare for a scenario in which the Strait of Hormuz is closed.

China and Nigeria: Neo-Colonialism, South-South Solidarity, or Both?

Daniel Wagner | Posted 09.18.2013 | World
Daniel Wagner

Bilateral relations between China and Nigeria will likely take one of two paths in the long term: either China will remain the overwhelmingly dominant actor or Nigeria will become a regional superpower, evening out the playing field.

Morsi Plays the Sectarian Card

Daniel Wagner | Posted 08.25.2013 | World
Daniel Wagner

Morsi must realize that he cannot have his cake and eat it too -- attempting to embrace Tehran on one hand and the West and rest of the Arab world on the other. He is trying to be all things to all people, which will not work.

The Central African Republic: The Emerging Pakistan of Africa

Daniel Wagner | Posted 08.21.2013 | World
Daniel Wagner

The crisis in the Central African Republic (CAR) has deteriorated in recent months with worsening humanitarian conditions, lawlessness and violence between the Christian and Muslim communities.

Saudi Arabia's Dark Role in the Syria Conflict

Daniel Wagner | Posted 08.07.2013 | World
Daniel Wagner

While the Saudis are delighted to see Iran's top ally facing a potentially existential threat, Riyadh would be wise to recognize that Iran's loss might not necessarily advance the Saudis' longer term interests in the Middle East.

Can Colombia and the FARC Make Peace?

Daniel Wagner | Posted 07.22.2013 | World
Daniel Wagner

The nearly half century of war between the government of Colombia and the Armed Revolutionary Forces of Colombia (FARC) that left over half a million Colombians dead and three million displaced may finally be coming to an end.