Given the EU's fundamental interconnectedness -- in economic, financial, geopolitical and social terms -- the disruptive impact of each shock would amplify the others, overwhelming the region's circuit breakers, leading to recession, reviving financial instability and creating pockets of social tension. This would increase already high unemployment, expose excessive financial risk-taking, embolden Russia and strengthen populist movements further, thereby impeding comprehensive policy responses.
If Russia does not seize the opportunity to bail out Greece, we can conclude that the Russian economy is in much worse shape than anticipated. There is also an interesting observation to be made behind the gunpowder smoke in Ukraine, Iran's alleged nuclear weapons program and several other geopolitical issues.
It's clear that we should not base our hopes on futile and dangerous solutions, such as returning to the drachma. Let us draw up a long-term plan for the next day, that will turn Greece into a modern, well-governed European country with a strong economy and liberated from the chronic pathologies that pester it.
The Greek government has squandered all its goodwill within half a year through a combination of arrogance, belligerence, naivety and utter incompetence. It set out to restore the "dignity" of the Greek people by "liberating" them from the alleged stranglehold of the Troika, while in the process "transforming" Europe into a more equal and just continent. It has achieved neither.