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Investing Heavily in Romney: Was It a Good Bet?

David Rothschild | Posted 11.27.2013 | Politics
David Rothschild

We cannot say for sure if this market was manipulated, but if manipulation could be successful, it would be worth it. If a few million dollars could boost fundraising and morale, than it would be a good investment next to one more television advertisement.

How One Trader's Love For Mitt Romney Went A Little Too Far

The Huffington Post | Mark Gongloff | Posted 09.25.2013 | Business

We knew Wall Street loved Mitt Romney, but this is ridiculous. One devoted trader apparently lost between $4 million and $7 million in just two wee...

Could a Patent Lawsuit Take Down the Bitcoin Exchanges Like MtGox?

Max Keiser | Posted 06.07.2013 | Business
Max Keiser

As bitcoin and the exchanges become more prevalent we'll see Wall Street and the central banks challenge the exchanges on intellectual property grounds.

Government Goes After Prediction Markets and Research

David Rothschild | Posted 01.30.2013 | Politics
David Rothschild

Intrade goes to great lengths to transparently define the contracts in their markets for hosts of potential pitfalls: candidate deaths, calling outcomes, etc. The investors in this market are fully aware of what they are trading and the risks associate with that.

Morning Links: More Guns, Less Crime in Virginia; Libertarianism and the Middle East; Intrade Pulls Out of the U.S.

Radley Balko | Posted 01.28.2013 | Politics
Radley Balko

-- Study: Gun sales in Virginia up 73 percent since 2006. Gun violence is down 24 percent over the same period. -- Intrade cuts off U.S. customers af...

Prediction Markets: The Other Big Winners on Election Night

Leighton Vaughan Williams | Posted 01.08.2013 | Business
Leighton Vaughan Williams

Mr. Obama was a big winner on election night. But there were others. Statistical modelling was one such winner, and the other big winners were the prediction markets, which had it right all along.

Who Is Winning the Race for the White House?

Leighton Vaughan Williams | Posted 12.30.2012 | Politics
Leighton Vaughan Williams

The conventional wisdom is that the betting markets are pointing to the re-election of the president while the polls apparently have Mitt Romney as the narrow favorite. So what's the evidence?

How Gamblers -- History's Most Accurate Election Forecasters -- Are Betting on 2012

Keith Thomson | Posted 12.24.2012 | Politics
Keith Thomson

I don't like uncertainty, and the current presidential polls are a hotbed of uncertainty. Fortunately there are veritable election oracles I can turn to instead: gamblers.

Matt Sledge

Obama Reelection Odds Jump After Presidential Debate, According To Online Predictors | Matt Sledge | Posted 10.23.2012 | Politics

NEW YORK -- The consensus after Monday night's third and final presidential debate is that Barack Obama was the winner. But the president's victory be...

Joe Biden Debate Performance Gives Obama Minor Bump In Prediction Markets

The Huffington Post | Matt Sledge | Posted 10.12.2012 | Politics

Joe Biden's performance at the debate on Thursday night was warmly received by Democrats -- and now the betting markets are rewarding his running mate...

Narrative Power and the Predictability of Electoral Prediction Markets

David Karpf | Posted 10.14.2012 | Politics
David Karpf

The Republican convention is in two weeks. Both Romney and Ryan will give big, primetime speeches. I don't know what will be in those speeches. It barely matters though. The general contours of the narrative are already clear in advance.

Is There an Equation to Predict the Next President?

Eben Esterhuizen | Posted 10.06.2012 | Politics
Eben Esterhuizen

Prediction markets are created for making predictions on a wide range of topics, from presidential elections to celebrity divorces. The current prices of the contracts on these markets can then be interpreted as the probability of an event taking place.

Trader FAIL: Healthcare Edition

The Huffington Post | Mark Gongloff | Posted 06.28.2012 | Business

Can we all agree now that there's not so much wisdom in markets, or crowds? The Supreme Court's decision to uphold President Barack Obama's health ...

To Bet or Not to Bet? Why Gambling on Elections Is Wrong

Matt Bieber | Posted 06.06.2012 | Politics
Matt Bieber

The world is a complicated and uncertain place. But that doesn't mean that everything in it should be treated like a March Madness pool. Some things are sacred.

Confessions of an Intrade Junkie

Jason Stanford | Posted 04.11.2012 | Politics
Jason Stanford

"Intrade for political professionals is like the ultimate insider training. I feel like Martha Stewart. You take the industry you live and breathe and know and love and hate, and you make money off of it."

Even as Romney Recovers, Newt's Attacks Are Killing His Chances In the Fall

David Paul | Posted 03.30.2012 | Politics
David Paul

The world is different now from when Karl Rove and Matthew Dowd crafted a political strategy in a world with no center. Today, the center looms, and Republican chances are zero if they cannot win the suburbs.

Rick Perry Looks to Leave Mitt Romney and Karl Rove in the Dust

David Paul | Posted 10.18.2011 | Politics
David Paul

There is a reason Karl Rove and the Bush family have fought this guy. Perry just either says what he wants with no regard for outcomes, or says what he wants with full regard for outcomes. I suspect it's the latter.

Jason Linkins

Late Returns: Mitt Romney Will Skip One Of The Hundreds Of Debates Scheduled For 2011 | Jason Linkins | Posted 08.21.2011 | Politics

Jonathan Martin reports that former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney will take a pass on a July debate in Las Vegas, Nevada. That's bad news for Tuc...

Gamblers' Odds on Middle Eastern Leaders' Futures

Keith Thomson | Posted 05.25.2011 | World
Keith Thomson

Currently the most popular market on Intrade is the prospective fall of Libya's Moammar Gadhafi, garnering more than $100,000 in wagers. Markets regarding the fates of other Middle Eastern leaders have been nearly as hot.

Gamblers' Election-Forecasting Prowess and How They're Betting on the 2010 Races

Keith Thomson | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Keith Thomson

A professional horseplayer once told me that compared to handicapping horse races, elections were a cakewalk. "Polls can be inaccurate," he said. "Gamblers are accurate or they lose." There's considerable evidence he was on the money.

Markets Think Goldman Sachs Is More Risky Than Citi - And That Blankfein Will Stay (POLL)

Huffington Post | Ryan McCarthy | Posted 05.25.2011 | Business

For many in the market, just a few months ago it would have been hard to believe that Citigroup could be a safer bet than Goldman Sachs. But the b...

How Todd Palin Can Make Millions. Now.

Keith Thomson | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Keith Thomson

Sarah Palin has the capability to manipulate the political betting markets and thus, is barred from betting on her future. If you are a member of Palin's family, however, you can play.

How Tim Geithner Can Guarantee a 43% Return on Your Money This Year

Keith Thomson | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Keith Thomson

I asked one of America's foremost horse racing handicappers to take time out from the grandstand and bet on political outcomes. What's his line on Geithner?

Intrade: Geithner Odds Of Ouster Surging

Huffington Post | Julie Satow | Posted 05.25.2011 | Business

The odds-making firm Intrade has asked investors to bet on whether Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will leave his job before the end of this year....

Who Could Have Predicted Hillary As Secretary Of State? Me.

James Boyce | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
James Boyce

When the Secretary of State page went up on November 5th and the bets started to be laid down on Intrade, there was a large number, relatively, of initial bets placed on Hillary for Secretary of State.