While these predictions focus more on mainstream movies, it is not necessarily the ones dominating the main categories: Life of Pi leads in three, Zero Dark Thirty in three, Anna Karenina in two, and Lincoln in only one.
85 percent of winners came in the top two in nominations, and 93 percent of the winners at least made bronze. So should you go ahead and fill out your Oscar ballot with Lincoln or Life of Pi, this year's runner-up with 11 nominations?
I could write numerous articles on how Tarantino and DiCaprio got the shaft, how Christopher Nolan got cheated, and how Looper didn't even get a best original screenplay nomination, but I'll stick to just the Best Picture category to tear apart.
Branching out from politics and economics, I have been examining Oscar predictions over the last few weeks. While I approach the science of predictions the same way for both political elections and the Oscars, there are some key differences.
This year, it's looking as if I won't be buying tickets to most of the nominees for Best Picture, because I have this built-in protective mechanism which keeps me away from exceptionally violent films.
In our initial likelihoods of victory for the big six categories, Lincoln is our most likely winner in three: best actor (Daniel Day-Lewis) at near certainty, best picture at 94 percent, and best director (Steven Spielberg) at 70 percent.
As we look at prognostications about the economy and politics of 2030, is it possible that the axis of global culture is also moving to other places, or at least will be more evenly distributed in the decades to come?
This year's expertly-run festival gave the indies room to breathe, focusing on the massive treasure trove of new talent from the Middle East, Africa, and beyond. Of course it wouldn't be Dubai without some outrageous parties.
I've come to decide that Aristotle was a pretty smart guy and that plot, in both content and structure, matters quite a bit. I've also come to decide that we live in an age where plots have been greatly degraded.
This weekend saw a half-hearted new release, Playing for Keeps, a Gerald Butler rom-com that once again proves that Butler is only a star when he has a bigger co-star beside him. Next weekend sees the heavily-anticipated debut of The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey.
With some great ball gowns packed already -- one thing DIFF does not do is casual! -- a thirst for discovering new favorites and watching once again a few films near and dear to my heart, I look forward to the 9th Dubai International Film Festival.