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Likely Voters

How Pollsters Decide Who's A 'Likely Voter' Makes A Big Difference In Results

The Huffington Post | Natalie Jackson | Posted 12.23.2016 | Politics

For all the challenges facing the election polling industry, one of the most basic remains figuring out whether people actually vote. Pollsters hoping...

One More Moment of Truth

William S. Becker | Posted 06.24.2015 | Politics
William S. Becker

Climate deniers in Congress must be delighted that they are successfully undermining the chance that after 20 years of negotiations, the international community will finally reach a climate deal this year. It is up to the rest of us to make sure their success is short-lived. Very short-lived, in fact.

Natalie Jackson

Differences Between Registered And Likely Voter Polls Didn't Affect Fall Trends In 2014 Senate Forecast | Natalie Jackson | Posted 12.15.2014 | Politics

The big story in the 2014 Senate elections was Republicans’ success. In hindsight, the evidence was clear that Republicans were gaining support in t...

Americans Are More Likely To Vote If They Hate The Other Party

The Huffington Post | Ariel Edwards-Levy | Posted 10.17.2014 | Politics

The Americans most likely to vote in this year's midterms are also the most likely to be highly partisan and antipathetic toward their political rival...

Early Voting Picking Up Steam

Michael P. McDonald | Posted 12.12.2014 | Politics
Michael P. McDonald

Iowa remains ground zero for the fight for the Senate, and for early voting mobilization activities. As of Friday, 119,141 Iowans had voted in the 2014 general election, representing 10.5 percent of the total vote in 2010.

Polls Show Sharp Turn by Registered Voters, Against Republicans, Concerning Taxes

Eric Zuesse | Posted 02.20.2013 | Politics
Eric Zuesse

There has been a vast and important change of mind among the electorate, regarding the issue of taxes. On 13 July 2012, McClatchy Newspapers headline...

Why Aren't You Voting?

The Huffington Post | Carol Hartsell | Posted 11.05.2012 | Comedy

Registered voters, likely voters, undecided voters... they're all anyone is talking about leading into tomorrow's election. But what about that other ...

Things That Shouldn't Decide the Outcome (But Might)

Mike Edwards | Posted 01.23.2014 | Politics
Mike Edwards

Obama seems to have a lead in the Electoral College, although even that is less assured today than in was three weeks ago. It is increasingly likely that either the national vote total or the Electoral College be decided by a very small percentage of voters.

Mark Blumenthal

Polling Switch A 'Wipe Out' Of Obama's Lead | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 10.10.2012 | Politics

UPDATE -- 1:30 p.m. : On Tuesday, Gallup released its first polling results on the presidential race among respondents they consider most likely to vo...

Mark Blumenthal

Polls: Does Romney Have A Hidden Edge? | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 07.18.2012 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- Are national pollsters oversampling Democrats? That's a charge made by some conservative pundits, and they may have a point: If the most...

Mark Blumenthal

Wisconsin Poll: Republican Enthusiasm Gap Vanishes | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics

The poll released this past weekend by a conservative Wisconsin think tank did more than indicate a preference for compromise among Wisconsin adults. ...

Mark Blumenthal

Likely Voters: How Statewide Pollsters Choose Them | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- Six years ago, I spent much of late October writing about how pollsters screen, model and otherwise select the "likely voters" they inte...

Mark Blumenthal

Gallup's Generic House Ballot: Why So Different? | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics

Why are some pollsters producing results among "likely voters" that vary, either over time or compared to other pollsters? A week ago, I offered a pri...

Yes, We Still Post 'Outliers"

Huffington Post | Emily Swanson | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics

Editor's note for those new to Pollster: 'Outliers' is a feature we ordinarily try to post on a near daily basis. Our aim is to point to analysis else...

Mark Blumenthal

'Likely' Voters: How Pollsters Define And Choose Them | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics

We have seen the "likely voter" polling problem rear its head several times in recent weeks, but few examples have been as vivid as three national sur...

More on the Arkansas Surprise

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

Before moving on to the more important issues raised by both Nate Silver's new pollster accuracy ratings and their apparent role in parting of ways be...

On 'Modeling' and Surveys

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

My National Journal column for this week looks at the "modeling" that underlies both online panel surveys and all pre-election polling. Please click t...

On Polling Political Junkies

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

This morning, Nate Silver [flagged]( a pretty glaring difference between...

Column: Definites for Sestak

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

My column for this week looks back at how the polls performed in Pennsylvania's Democratic primary for Senate and one potentially overlooked finding: ...

When to Watch Likely Voters?

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

My column for this week looks at the issue of "likely voters" as identified on public opinion surveys from a slightly different perspective: When shou...

McDonald: Does Enthusiasm Portend High Turnout in 2010?

Guest Pollster | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Guest Pollster

As Nate Silver notes, a recent USA Today/Gallup poll finds that that 62% of registered voters say they are "more enthusiastic than usual about voting" in the upcoming midterm elections.

How Tight is the Screen? (2010 Edition)

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

Nate Silver has an interesting catch this morning: On the most recent USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted roughly a week after health care reform passed ...

Mokrzycki: Are MA Senate Polls Prone to Non-response Bias?

Guest Pollster | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Guest Pollster

Mike Mokrzycki is an independent consultant who was the founding director of the Associated Press polling unit. He may be reached at

Massachusetts Polls Update (1/13)

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

The flurry of commentary on polling in the Massachusetts Senate race plus a handful of new polls -- some real, some rumor -- provide some new topics w...

Massachusetts Polls: Divergent Results But One Clear Finding

Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Mark Blumenthal

We have two new polls out in Massachusetts on the January 19 special election to fill Ted Kennedy's Senate seat, and their results could not be more d...