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Managing Country Risk.

The Paris Climate Change Agreement Is a Huge Disappointment

Daniel Wagner | Posted 12.14.2016 | Green
Daniel Wagner

Now that the handshakes, back slapping and self-congratulatory addresses are over, the cold hard reality of what wasn't achieved at the Paris Climate Change Conference is setting in.

American Political Culture Explains Why Trump Is Still Strong

Daniel Wagner | Posted 12.02.2016 | Entertainment
Daniel Wagner

Why do Republican voters seem to naturally gravitate to celebrities -- most of whom are, shall we say, 'short' on actual knowledge about politics, legislative issues, and global affairs?

Europe's Long Goodbye to Open Borders

Daniel Wagner | Posted 11.15.2016 | World
Daniel Wagner

If a bomb can explode in a stadium in France with the French president sitting in it, there is a problem. The Paris attacks are a wake-up call.

Information Transparency and No-Fly Zones in Conflict Areas

Daniel Wagner | Posted 11.02.2016 | World
Daniel Wagner

Why should it be left to governments and airlines with skin in the game to decide whether to issue flight restrictions or comply with warnings? What is needed is an international governing body charged with enforcing air corridor restrictions or closures, rather than merely issuing protocols and alerts.

The U.S. Needs a New Approach to the Rest of the World

Daniel Wagner | Posted 10.30.2016 | Politics
Daniel Wagner

America is having a tough time finding its footing - not only in the Middle East, but in much of the rest of the world. It almost feels like the U.S. has become a developing nation, at least on the global stage.

Chest Thumping and Chess Playing in Syria

Daniel Wagner | Posted 10.13.2016 | World
Daniel Wagner

Political pundits in the U.S. are working overtime trying to get in to the mind of Vladimir Putin and explain to the world why Mr. Putin has decided to jump into the fray in Syria.

The UAE's High Stakes in Yemen

Daniel Wagner | Posted 09.21.2016 | World
Daniel Wagner

Amidst the background of a violent conflict that is destroying Yemen, the UAE seeks to prove to the world that the wealthy emirates are capable of more than just spending billions of dollars to create a first-rate military with advanced weaponry.

Singapore's Election Runs Counter to Global Trends

Daniel Wagner | Posted 09.15.2016 | World
Daniel Wagner

Modern Singapore's political landscape has often served as a bellwether (or mirror, as the case may be) for what other countries in Asia have come to expect from their polities.

Iran Exposes the Myth of GCC Unity

Daniel Wagner | Posted 09.10.2016 | World
Daniel Wagner

If GCC officials slowly pivot toward the perception that their long-term interests reside in an improved relationship toward Iran, such a strategic shift would be seen in Riyadh as an erosion of GCC unity against an emboldened Iran.

Blaming China Is Not the Answer

Daniel Wagner | Posted 08.25.2016 | Business
Daniel Wagner

Global investors and lenders have learned relatively little since 2008, creating more bubbles, ignoring more warning signs, and, until recently, continuing to party like it's 1999. The chickens are coming home to roost.

How the Iran Deal May Impact Israel's Influence

Daniel Wagner | Posted 08.18.2016 | World
Daniel Wagner

Whether the deal is rejected or not by the U.S. Congress, in the process, conservatives in Israel and in the U.S. will have enhanced their ability to flex their lobbying muscles going forward, and Israel will be well positioned to receive enhanced defense assistance from the U.S.

A Republican President and the Next War

Daniel Wagner | Posted 08.04.2016 | Politics
Daniel Wagner

Nearly all of the Republican presidential candidates have been vociferous in their hatred of the Iran deal, and if a majority Republican Congress is elected in 2016, the Iran deal will probably have a short life -- if it has one at all.

Aquino's Legacy in the Philippines

Edsel Tupaz | Posted 08.02.2016 | World
Edsel Tupaz

In just 5 years, Aquino's accomplishments have exceeded many expectations and have outperformed all previous administrations.

The Trump Phenomenon and U.S. Political Culture

Daniel Wagner | Posted 07.14.2016 | Politics
Daniel Wagner

The only things that really matter in Republican politics today are name recognition, a degree of celebrity, and the ability to make outrageous statements that appeal to a minority of voters.

History Tells Us That 2016 Will See a Recession

Daniel Wagner | Posted 07.09.2016 | Business
Daniel Wagner

As if a reminder were needed, a variety of asset classes are once again frothy and it feels a lot like 2008.

Greece Has Reached Its Threshold of Pain

Daniel Wagner | Posted 07.06.2016 | World
Daniel Wagner

It should not have come as a surprise that the majority of Greek voters opted not to accept more externally-imposed austerity, by voting "no" in Sunda...

The EU, the Grexit, and Market Failure

Daniel Wagner | Posted 06.26.2016 | World
Daniel Wagner

An orderly unwinding of Greece's and Europe's debt is possible. If it could be done in the U.S., when a third of all savings and loans associations failed in the 1980s and 1990s, something similar can be done in Europe.

Backing the Wrong Horse in Iraq

Daniel Wagner | Posted 06.16.2016 | World
Daniel Wagner

The Obama Administration's announcement that it is sending several hundred additional advisors to Iraq is consistent with America's failed policy in the country.

Rising Nationalism a Threat to Asia

Daniel Wagner | Posted 06.08.2016 | World
Daniel Wagner

Given its diverse cultural, linguistic and religious mosaic, nationalism is always lurking beneath the surface in Asia.

Grexit's Cost for Europe

Alexis Giannoulis | Posted 06.08.2016 | World
Alexis Giannoulis

While it is obvious that the current painful negotiations between Greece and its creditors must come to a swift conclusion, a Grexit will ultimately cost Europe as much, or more, than a possible 'haircut' of Greek debt.

Why There Is No Stopping the Funding of the Islamic State

Daniel Wagner | Posted 06.05.2016 | World
Daniel Wagner

The governments of Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia have for many years funded anti-Shia political and military movements in the Middle East without any substantial resistance from the international community.

China's Territorial Claim at Risk in the South China Sea

Edsel Tupaz | Posted 05.26.2016 | World
Edsel Tupaz

The Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) at The Hague has announced that in July it will be holding the first hearing on the 2013 arbitration case the Philippines filed against China questioning the legal validity of China's '9-dash line' claim over the South China Sea.

Sudan's Prospects for Reform

Daniel Wagner | Posted 05.21.2016 | World
Daniel Wagner

In spite of declarations to pursue reform following South Sudan's secession from Sudan in 2011, the political landscape in Sudan has remained bleak, with the government of Omar al-Bashir continuing to repress the country's marginalized populations.

A Premature Peace Deal in the Philippines

Edsel Tupaz | Posted 05.19.2016 | World
Edsel Tupaz

Following a number of recent setbacks in the elusive search for a lasting peace in Mindanao, the Philippine Congress is trying to rush the passage of the Bangsamoro 'Basic Law' -- a major component of the 2014 Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro -- in the hope of enacting the law prior to a mandatory adjournment of the Congress next month.

China's Growing Global Military Presence: Walk Softly and Carry a Small Stick

Daniel Wagner | Posted 05.13.2016 | World
Daniel Wagner

The alarm bells that are ringing among various governments and in the press with respect to China's growing global military presence are overdone.