The NIC report indicates that we're rapidly moving towards a quadripartite world governed by the U.S., China, India, and the European Community. In such a world, it makes no sense for America to shoulder most of the responsibility for policing the world.
The future is arriving faster than expected. According to a report by the National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2030, 17 years from now the world will be remarkably different. How does America plan to deal with this change?
Global growth will likely increase the demand for food, water, and energy by 35, 40, and 50 percent, respectively, by 2030. Add continued climate change to the equation, and the struggle for resources only becomes more intense.
I asked Col. Mykleby about issues facing President Obama in his second term. The resulting interview is long but well worth reading. It offers a fresh approach to national security from someone who has served at the highest levels of the U.S. military. I'll post it in two parts.
Every few years the National Intelligence Council has produced a document it calls serially Global Trends [fill in the future year]. The latest edition, out just in time for Barack Obama's second term, is Global Trends 2030.
As we look at prognostications about the economy and politics of 2030, is it possible that the axis of global culture is also moving to other places, or at least will be more evenly distributed in the decades to come?
Though tricky to define and even more challenging to measure, there's no denying that power is a fundamental driver of country behavior in the international political system. And measuring material power in today's geo-political space will only continue to shift.
For those of us concerned about the future of the U.S. in an era of global climate change and international competition over diminishing natural resources, the new report from the National Intelligence Council contains goods news and bad news.
Even a Roosevelt, a Kennedy or Reagan would have to deal with the reality that is facing Obama, in which domestic resistance and rising global challenges make it difficult for Washington to secure its military and economic hegemony.