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Obama Electoral Map

Converting a Poll Average to a Forecast

Simon Jackman | Posted 12.30.2012 | Politics
Simon Jackman

As we enter the final week of the campaign, an obvious question to ask is how to convert the state-by-state probabilities of an Obama or Romney lead in the polls to probabilities that Obama or Romney will win the state and the election itself.

What We Have Lost (and What We Are Fighting for)

Jedediah Purdy | Posted 12.22.2012 | Politics
Jedediah Purdy

It's time to fight like hell for the party of the center-right, represented by Barack Obama, against the party of the far right. There is no alternative. It's a time for progressives to be disappointed and resolute.

10 Reasons Why the Electoral College Is a Problem

Eric Black | Posted 12.16.2012 | Politics
Eric Black

The Electoral College system further distorts the presidential campaign by causing the candidates to grant extra weight to the parochial needs of the swing states.

Imagining Some Other Ways to Run Elections

Eric Black | Posted 12.09.2012 | Politics
Eric Black

Perhaps, conditioned by the relentlessness of the U.S. system, you can't think of any other way to run an election. But there are several in use around the world, and even around the United States.

Bob Novak Just Doesn't Get It

Brian Normoyle | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Brian Normoyle

The President-Elect flipped eight Bush states to the blue column and managed to get two states to elect a Democrat for President for the first time in nearly half a century.

McCain Aides Search For "Narrow-Victory Scenario"

NY Times | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics

Confronting an increasingly bleak electoral map, top aides to Senator John McCain said Thursday that they were searching for a "narrow-victory scenari...

Obama Scales Back 50-State Strategy

Time | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics

Barack Obama has never been particularly shy about his hope to reshape the political landscape of a country deeply divided between red and blue. To mu...

Obama's Lincoln Strategy?

Chicago Sun-Times | Abdon M. Pallasch | Posted 05.25.2011 | Chicago

The map hasn't changed all that much in 148 years. But the political parties have switched places. The northeast part of the country, from Illinois t...

Was Obama's 22-State Strategy A Mistake?

FiveThirtyEight | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics

Some scattered thoughts on the ponderable above: 1. Thave been some particular resource allocation decisions made by the Obama campaign that I've bee...

McCain Strategy Unveiled: Another New Map

Daniel Nichanian | Posted 05.25.2011 | Home
Daniel Nichanian

The plan is not as innovative as its designers suggest. Obama will be played up as beyond the mainstream and California as seriously in play, both ideas unlikely to rattle the Obama campaign.

Chuck Todd: Electoral Map Shifting To Obama

Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics

A month ago, NBC's electoral map showed an exact tie between Obama and McCain -- including 'base' and 'lean' states, each had 200 electoral votes. But...

Polls: Obama Making Inroads In 10 Bush States

CQ Politics | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics

According to recent polls, Sen. Barack Obama is doing extremely well in states that have voted Republican in recent presidential elections....

Poll: Obama Beating McCain In Montana

Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics

A new Rasmussen poll, Obama is leading McCain by five points in Montana -- a state George Bush won by 20 points in 2004. More details: In April, th...

"Whistling Past Dixie" Author: Obama Will Lose The South

NY Times | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics

THE interim between the primaries and the parties' nominating conventions is, according to ancient writ, a fertile period for presidential campaigns t...

Obama: Going North to Alaska!

Amanda Coyne | Posted 05.25.2011 | Home
Amanda Coyne

Last night in Anchorage, Obama staff told a small crowd that Obama would be coming to campaign in Alaska. A new poll has the margin closing here dramatically, to 5 points with 17 percent undecided.

Obama Could Win Vote, Lose Election

Politico | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics

Until 2000, it hadn't happened in more than 100 years, but plugged-in observers from both parties see a distinct possibility of Barack Obama winning t...

Why President Obama Could Lose Ohio & Florida

Ari Melber | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Ari Melber

If Obama can close the deal out West -- winning back Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico while simply holding the states that went for Kerry in 2004 -- then he can win.

Betting On Obama's New Map

Daniel Nichanian | Posted 05.25.2011 | Home
Daniel Nichanian

Obama is strong in the Rockies and weak in the Appalachians. His map is tilted to the west. He may well win Col. and even Nev. in the general election but how does that balance against Ohio, Penn. Fl.?