Of course, Obama's current uptick could just be a temporary blip, but let's think this out: What happens if public opinion IS actually shifting in the Democrats' direction across the country, potentially putting the House of Representatives in serious play?
Since the last time we took such a snapshot, roughly three weeks ago, both candidates have shown some firming up of their positions, but the good news for both candidates is mixed with some softening as well.
While there are ways to present information more effectively, the extensive social science research we review in our New America report suggests that misperceptions are very difficult to counter.
With 106 days to go, the race for the Presidency is a slug fest that is only going to get tougher and tighter. Here is our up-to-the-minute assessment of the political and economic environment.
Based on what we know about the likely racial composition of registered voters in the U.S., the results from the most recent three-week period are probably a more accurate estimate of the current state of the 2012 presidential race than earlier results.
The polls have maintained a serene stability. What about all those dramatic twists and turns so breathlessly covered by cable news? The showdown over contraception. The "Etch-a-Sketch" moment. The impact? Nothing changed.
\How about you turn off the cable news shows, close your eyes, and just think about what you believe and who best represents those beliefs? Then vote according to your conscience.
Recent polling shows overwhelmingly positive news regarding the President's recent decision to allow DREAM-eligible young people to apply for work permits.
If things are so horrible and bad with the economy why haven't Mitt Romney's numbers jumped through the sky and Barack Obama's numbers plummeted in the latest polls? I don't think that any smart reader of polls can tell you today who will win in November, but campaign research suggests that Romney will have a much tougher time than Obama moving forward because of VP pick scrutiny, national debate preparation, the changing of national and international issues will require him to be more specific in his positions, and the like. Obama has the advantage of incumbency and stronger favorability than Romney; Romney's main political advantage is that he's not currently in any elected office to see how he'd perform in this economy. So, if business background is a winning message, where's the Romney effect?
The global economic orthodoxy is being widely rejected by people who are pessimistic about the direction their country is taking. Most people have little faith that the lives of their children and future generations will be better off.
It's time to unequivocally say "I do" to real solutions. As with marriage equality, the president might be pleasantly surprised to find that coming out means no love lost on the right and a surge of enthusiasm from a politically active constituency.
Obama's support is already in the single digits with Republicans. How much less likely to vote for him can Republicans be?
Since, as any fifth-grader will tell you, we don't have a national vote for president, tracking the race by means of national polling is almost completely irrelevant.
By not revisiting their question language, polling outlets are actually influencing the debate by suggesting there is less support for stronger gun laws than actually exists.
Intelligence Squared suggested that "When It Comes To Politics, The Internet Is Closing Our Minds," I suggest that sites like eVoter will be changing our actions.