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Pollster Analysis

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE: Rick Scott's Lukewarm Improvement | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 06.18.2013 | Politics

Rick Scott gets some good news in Florida, if good news means trailing by 10 points and a "re-elect" of just 35 percent. The growth of cell-phone-only...

Polling About Privacy: Lessons From the Past

Mike Mokrzycki | Posted 08.18.2013 | Politics
Mike Mokrzycki

An exhaustive 2008 academic study of polling in the years after 9/11 can help make sense of what might be seen as confused public opinion today on privacy and government surveillance. It also suggests concerns about surveillance may be underreported as some people particularly sensitive about privacy might not take surveys.

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE: CNN Poll Exaggerates Obama Approval Decline | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 06.18.2013 | Politics

Obama's approval rating has declined since May but not nearly as much as implied by a new CNN poll. Americans are just as opposed to military aid to t...

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE: Polls Show Opposition To U.S. Military Involvement In Syria | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 06.14.2013 | Politics

"Military aid to the Syrian rebels bucks public opinion. Frank Newport reminds us that opinions on complex policy issues are rarely fixed or 'ironclad...

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE: Polls Find Division On Snowden's Actions | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 06.13.2013 | Politics

Americans worry about threats to their privacy, yet polls find division and uncertainty about Edward Snowden's actions (unless nudged to an answer). M...

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - Do Americans Support Surveillance? It Depends On How You Ask | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 06.12.2013 | Politics

Something about today's NSA poll results seems familiar. Steve Shepard asks a question about questions. And is Rand rising? This is the HuffPost Polls...

A Modest Early Voting Rise in 2012

Michael P. McDonald | Posted 08.12.2013 | Politics
Michael P. McDonald

Without a catalyst of a large state adopting early voting, I expect the early voting rate will again rise modestly in 2016. The trend should continue upward since once a state adopts early voting, the percentage of voters voting early tends to increase from election to election.

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - What The NSA Polling Doesn't Tell Us | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 06.11.2013 | Politics

Today we look at why two initial polls on the NSA surveillance controversy appear to tell different stories about where the public stands and ask, wha...

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - Booker Leads In First New Jersey Special Election Polls | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 06.10.2013 | Politics

Booker leads by a mile in two new New Jersey polls. Markey leads by smaller margins on five June polls in Massachusetts. And Pew Research finds a majo...

America's Take On the Fourth Amendment and the NSA

Michel Floyd | Posted 08.07.2013 | Politics
Michel Floyd

The original revelations about spying on the AP have been overshadowed by the recent confirmations of the NSA's long suspected and extensive domestic spying activities. The opinion of the public appears to be strongly in favor of improved privacy protections.

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - Americans Have Little Expectation Of Online Privacy | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 06.07.2013 | Politics

Polls show that while Americans have little expectation of privacy about their phone records and online data, they're wary of growing government surve...

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - The 'Stunning' Shift On Same-Sex Marriage | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 06.06.2013 | Politics

A new Pew Research poll confirms a strong continuing trend in favor of same sex marriage. Obama's internal polling analytics beat the polling averages...

Breadwinner Moms and Gaffe-Prone Men

Margie Omero | Posted 08.06.2013 | Politics
Margie Omero

it's not just Republican leaders who have more traditional views toward gender equality -- it may be men as a whole. As families and the workforce change, many men's views are not changing in kind.

Why Bother Electing Women?

Christine Matthews | Posted 08.05.2013 | Politics
Christine Matthews

While many would like to see women members of Congress at parity with men, many challenges remain to getting them even close. For Republican women, the challenges are even steeper.

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - New Polls A Mixed Bag For Obama | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 06.05.2013 | Politics

New national polls find good and bad news for Obama. Stu Rothenberg takes Lake Research to the woodshed. And where else can you find a debate about po...

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - Reviewing The Gallup Review | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 06.04.2013 | Politics

Gallup explains what happened in 2012, and some of it may sound familiar. Everyone has an opinion about Chris Christie's decision to call a special el...

Sweet Georgia Blue: Why Democrats Should Be Bullish on the Peach State

Zac McCrary | Posted 08.04.2013 | Politics
Zac McCrary

Population trends can change and parties can re-position themselves, but after a decade of states like Virginia, North Carolina, and Colorado becoming legitimate swing states, Georgia could certainly be the next state to move from red to purple -- and potentially blue.

Mark Blumenthal

The Real Reasons Behind Gallup's Big 2012 Fail | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 06.05.2013 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- Gallup, the polling firm that took a major hit last year for finding better results for GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney than other ...

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - New Jersey's Senate Battle Complicated By Frank Lautenberg's Passing | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 06.03.2013 | Politics

While the political world mourns Sen. Frank Lautenberg, the inevitable succession speculation begins. Barack Obama's job approval has declined since J...

Mark Blumenthal

Gallup's 2012 Mea Culpa: What To Expect | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 06.03.2013 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- On Tuesday, Gallup will unveil new details of an "extensive review" of its 2012 polling at a press briefing in Washington. While the inv...

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - Hillary Clinton's Favorability Drops | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.31.2013 | Politics

Hillary Clinton is looking a little more partisan to Republicans again. The Obama campaign shares their trendless trendlines from the 2012 campaign. A...

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - Obama's 'Big Data' Experts Team Up With Google's Eric Schmidt | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.31.2013 | Politics

The Obama data "Cave" incorporates with Google's Eric Schmidt as a backer. Quinnipiac finds it's still the economy, stupid. And speaking of the "big ...

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - Voters Dislike Both Candidates For Virginia Governor | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.30.2013 | Politics

Most Virginia voters say they dislike both candidates for governor. Gallup is close to a settlement in its DOJ case. And making too much of a non-rand...

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - Is Mitch McConnell Losing Ground? | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.28.2013 | Politics

PPP poll for Democratic super PAC finds bad news for McConnell, but is there less change here than meets the eye? Another new poll reaffirms everyone...

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - John H. Thompson Named As Census Director | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.24.2013 | Politics

The President names a new Census director nominee. No one likes the sequester, one of the few things Congress approved recently. And the NRCC discover...