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Pollster Analysis

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - Hillary Clinton's Favorability Drops | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.31.2013 | Politics

Hillary Clinton is looking a little more partisan to Republicans again. The Obama campaign shares their trendless trendlines from the 2012 campaign. A...

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - Obama's 'Big Data' Experts Team Up With Google's Eric Schmidt | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.31.2013 | Politics

The Obama data "Cave" incorporates with Google's Eric Schmidt as a backer. Quinnipiac finds it's still the economy, stupid. And speaking of the "big ...

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - Voters Dislike Both Candidates For Virginia Governor | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.30.2013 | Politics

Most Virginia voters say they dislike both candidates for governor. Gallup is close to a settlement in its DOJ case. And making too much of a non-rand...

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - Is Mitch McConnell Losing Ground? | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.28.2013 | Politics

PPP poll for Democratic super PAC finds bad news for McConnell, but is there less change here than meets the eye? Another new poll reaffirms everyone...

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - John H. Thompson Named As Census Director | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.24.2013 | Politics

The President names a new Census director nominee. No one likes the sequester, one of the few things Congress approved recently. And the NRCC discover...

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - Most Support 'Path To Citizenship' | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.23.2013 | Politics

Another poll finds a positive reaction to the immigration reform proposal, but less intensity among supporters. Americans like the IRS even less. And ...

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - LA Mayoral Polls Get It Right | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.22.2013 | Politics

Pollsters catch a break in Los Angeles. One national poll shows increasing disapproval of Obama. And Jason Linkins takes on a less-than-unimpeachable ...

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - Obama's Ratings Remain Unchanged | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.21.2013 | Politics

A new round of national polls is telling a consistent story: Obama's overall ratings remain stable despite rising concerns about the scandal stories g...

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - Wendy Greuel, LA Mayoral Candidate, Attacks 'Flawed' Poll | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.22.2013 | Politics

Barack Obama had a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad week, but his job approval ratings remain stable. Pollsters are fighting pollsters in Los Ang...

Mark Blumenthal

'Worst Week' For Obama Has Surprising Effect On Polls | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.21.2013 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- President Barack Obama may have had the "worst week in Washington" -- perhaps even his "worst week ever" -- but so far polls tracking hi...

Mark Blumenthal

What Went Wrong? Gallup Shares New Details | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.19.2013 | Politics

BOSTON -- Gallup, the company that has faced intense criticism after its polling consistently understated President Barack Obama's support during the ...

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - AAPOR Attendees Review The State Of Polling | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.17.2013 | Politics

A who’s-who of pollsters and researchers are gathered in Boston for their annual conference today, and two thirds of Team Pollster are there to brin...

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - Few Supporters For The IRS | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.16.2013 | Politics

Most Americans don’t like the IRS, most Virginians don’t know anything about their candidates for governor, and AAPOR kicks off in Boston. This is...

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - British Columbia's Polling Fail | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.15.2013 | Politics

A low turnout election in British Columbia yields the sum of all pollster fears. In New Hampshire, which knows of such meltdowns, Hillary Clinton domi...

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - Will Second Term Scandals Be 'Game Changers'? | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.14.2013 | Politics

Without fresh survey data, pundits turn to political science and prediction to evaluate the impact of the week's new scandals. On Benghazi, Obama gets...

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - Another Look At Kelly Ayotte's Approval Ratings | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.13.2013 | Politics

Kelly Ayotte's job rating gets another look. Politico discovers Gallup's review of its methodology. And PPP is asking about "hipsters" by talking to r...

Did The Youth Vote Actually Increase in 2012?

Kristen Soltis Anderson | Posted 07.10.2013 | Politics
Kristen Soltis Anderson

I'd argue it's also not nearly as important as what Republicans plan to do to win over more of those young people who do show up.

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - Could Pennsylvania Be A 2016 Swing State? | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.13.2013 | Politics

It's a good time to ignore horse race numbers in Virginia, but a fine time to speculate about battleground states in 2016. Eliot visits Elliot, the mo...

2012 Election: A Failure to Mobilize the Youth Vote

Michael P. McDonald | Posted 07.10.2013 | Politics
Michael P. McDonald

Among the most dramatic findings reported in the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey is a large decline in turnout rates among young people. Obama's smaller margin of victory in 2012 was thus partially a turnout story.

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - Census Turnout Data Shows Record Black Turnout | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.09.2013 | Politics

Political data geeks rejoiced over the release of the biennial Census report on voter turnout, a report which shows black turnout exceeding white turn...

2012 Turnout: Race, Ethnicity and the Youth Vote

Michael P. McDonald | Posted 07.08.2013 | Politics
Michael P. McDonald

The big news from the Current Population Survey will be that African-American turnout exceeded non-Hispanic white turnout. But I contend that really that happened first in 2008. The more important political story may be the dramatic decline in youth turnout, as it poses a challenge to Democrats and an opportunity for Republicans.

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - McAuliffe, Cuccinelli Running Close In Virginia | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.08.2013 | Politics

Pollsters missed the South Carolina special election outcome by a mile. So...on to Virginia! And Pew Research confirms that off-year turnout advantage...

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - South Carolina's 1st District Votes Tonight | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.07.2013 | Politics

For South Carolina's election day, a lesson in comparative politics: In the U.S., politicos either obsess over the latest twitch in automated telephon...

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - South Carolina Special Election Poll Shows Close Race | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.07.2013 | Politics

A final PPP poll in South Carolina's 1st congressional district shows a near tie, but both the poll and the race have produced more far more speculati...

Mark Blumenthal

POLLSTER UPDATE - Markey, Gomez Running Close | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 05.03.2013 | Politics

We close the week in Massachusetts, where a new PPP automated shows a close race and a student group at Emerson College is getting into automated poll...