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Pollster Analysis

Forget the Primary: All Republican Candidates Are Unpopular

Margie Omero | Posted 03.20.2012 | Politics
Margie Omero

The latest New York Times/CBS poll shows that all the remaining Republican candidates are unpopular with voters nationally. No wonder Republican primary voters continue to be dissatisfied with their choices.

Mark Blumenthal

Polls Show Newt Surging In South Carolina | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 01.19.2012 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- Six new polls released on Thursday reveal a stunning surge of support for Newt Gingrich in South Carolina's Republican primary, followin...

Mark Blumenthal

Is Romney's Lead In South Carolina Narrowing? | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 07.29.2013 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- A new survey of likely Republican presidential primary voters in South Carolina released on Wednesday shows the same overall result as n...

Second Place in NH Democratic Primary Goes to...Ron Paul?!

Michael P. McDonald | Posted 06.18.2012 | Politics
Michael P. McDonald

We all know that President Obama won his party's primary in New Hampshire. What you may not know is that Obama only won 79.5% of the vote. Second place in the New Hampshire Democratic primary went to Ron Paul.

Mark Blumenthal

Mitt Romney Still Ahead In New South Carolina Polls | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 01.13.2012 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- Three new surveys of South Carolina Republicans, all conducted since Tuesday's New Hampshire primary, show that the week's events have s...

Trend And Variation 'Outliers'

Posted 01.13.2012 | Politics

Jon Bernstein counts endorsements, sees gains for Romney; Seth masket has more; Bernstein recommends we ignore poll results on the value of endorsemen...

Mark Blumenthal

Romney's Gain In National GOP Polls: Why It Matters | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 01.12.2012 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- Over the past week, Mitt Romney's support in the Gallup Daily national tracking poll on the Republican nomination rose above 30 percent ...

New Hampshire Primary Forecasts Obama Reelection

Helmut Norpoth | Posted 03.13.2012 | Politics
Helmut Norpoth

For the record, the Primary Model, with slight modifications, has predicted the winner of the popular vote in all presidential elections since it was introduced in 1996.

Mark Blumenthal

Can Romney Hold Conservatives In South Carolina? | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 01.11.2012 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- Mitt Romney's solid victory in New Hampshire, judging from the network exit poll, can be credited to two factors that made the state esp...

Mark Blumenthal

Local Republican Insiders Like Romney, Question Santorum | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 01.10.2012 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- Last week, political junkies focused on Rick Santorum's surge to a virtual tie in the Iowa caucuses, and this week most are watching the...

Election Monitor: Why Romney's Win in NH Will Be Bigger Than You Think

Steve Lombardo | Posted 03.11.2012 | Politics
Steve Lombardo

The last 48 hours have been horrendous for Mitt Romney, but I think Romney is going to win big today in NH, crossing the 40% threshold and become the first non-incumbent GOP presidential candidate to ever win both Iowa and New Hampshire.

Mark Blumenthal

Final New Hampshire Polls Find Mitt Ahead, Uncertainty In Runners-Up | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 01.10.2012 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- If ever there were a time when polls should be certain about something, it is that Mitt Romney will win New Hampshire's Republican presi...

Emily Swanson

Mitt Romney Gains Ground In National Polls | Emily Swanson | Posted 01.09.2012 | Politics

Although most eyes are fixed on New Hampshire on the eve of the first-in-the-nation primary, new polls released Monday by the Pew Research Center and ...

Mark Blumenthal

New Hampshire Polls: Is Huntsman Surging? | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 07.29.2013 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- Four new polls released over the weekend continue to show Mitt Romney heading for a comfortable victory in Tuesday's New Hampshire prima...

Mark Blumenthal

New Hampshire GOP Activists Unmask Invisible Primary (VIDEO) | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 01.08.2012 | Politics

CONCORD, N.H. -- In the run-up to the New Hampshire primary, local GOP activists have made choices that parallel those of the state's ordinary Republi...

Mark Blumenthal

New Hampshire Polls: Mitt's Support Steady | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 01.07.2012 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- After finishing in a near-tie with former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum in the Iowa Caucuses on Tuesday, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney...

Mark Blumenthal

Romney Ahead In South Carolina, But Santorum's Rising | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 01.06.2012 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- While the news media focus on next week's Republican primary in New Hampshire, three new polls from South Carolina show how close former...

Mark Blumenthal

New Hampshire Polls: Will We See An Iowa Bump? | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 07.29.2013 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- The latest poll in New Hampshire shows little bounce for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and a modest increase for former Sen. Ric...

What Did the Final Polls in Iowa Tell Us?

David C. Wilson | Posted 03.05.2012 | Politics
David C. Wilson

My read of the data suggests there were many dynamics in the Iowa electorate not being captured by polls taken in the final week before caucus night.

Mark Blumenthal

Final Polls Put Romney Ahead | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 01.03.2012 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- With Iowa's Republican presidential caucuses just hours away, the final polling snapshot shows a close race, but the surveys are also re...

Mark Blumenthal

Romney Connecting With Local Republican Activists | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 01.02.2012 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- While the attention of political junkies may be focused on broader polls of likely caucus-goers in Iowa, Mitt Romney has been steadily g...

Mark Blumenthal

How Attack Ads Sunk Newt | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 01.02.2012 | Politics

The rapid fall of Newt Gingrich from front-runner to also-ran was put into motion, at least in part, by an unprecedented wave of negative advertisemen...

Mark Blumenthal

One More Iowa Poll Shows Photo Finish | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 01.02.2012 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- The latest poll of Iowa's likely Republican caucus-goers provides more evidence of a race headed toward a photo finish, with Ron Paul, M...

Mark Blumenthal

Iowa Poll Allows For Many 'What-Ifs' | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 07.29.2013 | Politics

The Des Moines Register on Saturday night published more details from the paper's poll of Iowa's likely Republican caucus-goers, including results for...

Mark Blumenthal

Romney Leads In Crucial Iowa Poll | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 01.01.2012 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- At the end of a year in which five different candidates took turns leading in polls of likely Iowa caucus-goers, the final and most resp...