Nate Silver is not a pollster. He is not polling people, but using data to make predictions. Similarly, weather forecasts are generally correct -- but not always. But when there is an 86 percent change of rain, most of us grab an umbrella. And we should.
Before the votes are even counted, I am willing to confidently stick with my earlier prediction that Barack Obama will win this election. With that said, here is the first autopsy of the Romney campaign from a hardcore conservative.
Understanding trends and catching a wave in the marketplace is one of two important elements for creating exponential growth. When coupled with outstanding execution, one's performance can yield results a factor 20 higher than normal.
Prediction markets are created for making predictions on a wide range of topics, from presidential elections to celebrity divorces. The current prices of the contracts on these markets can then be interpreted as the probability of an event taking place.
Ideas are wonderful things. But they need to be married to technology to come to life. The classic case is Leonardo da Vinci inventing the helicopter, but not having the internal combustion engine to drive it.