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Presidential Approval

Presidents Day Woes: It's History, Not the Horse Race, That Matters

Joshua Zeitz | Posted 04.19.2014 | Politics
Joshua Zeitz

Obama can take comfort in knowing that he's not the first occupant of the Executive Mansion whose legacy was written off prematurely. Abraham Lincoln, for one, had little cause to celebrate his birthday one hundred and fifty years ago.

Perpetual Halloween in Washington and the Ghost of Relationships Past

Robert Hall | Posted 01.23.2014 | Politics
Robert Hall

The broken relationships of our country's leaders now place us in a perpetual season of Halloween.

Poll Reveals Ex-Presidents' Popularity

The Huffington Post | Ariel Edwards-Levy | Posted 04.26.2013 | Politics

Most recent presidents became more popular with the American public after leaving office, according to polling data released by Gallup on Thursday. ...

A Bigger Problem for President Obama Than a Drop in Poll Numbers

Earl Ofari Hutchinson | Posted 05.07.2013 | Politics
Earl Ofari Hutchinson

It's a tough place for Obama to be in with the GOP loaded for bear against him, and Democrats ready to do battle hard against him on what they won't accept in a budget deal. It's a problem that's far bigger for Obama than the momentary drop of a few points in an approval poll.

Why Candidates Win: Tactics vs. Fundamentals

Brendan Nyhan | Posted 06.18.2012 | Politics
Brendan Nyhan

Today's NYT news analysis by Jeff Zeleny offers a classic example of how journalists attribute political success to tactical strategies.

Mark Blumenthal

Obama's Bin Laden Polling Bump Fades

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 08.10.2011 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- A batch of new national polls released this week share a similar theme: All show a fade of the modest "bounce" in President Barack Obama...

Mark Blumenthal

Obama Ratings Jump On Terrorism, Afghanistan

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 07.03.2011 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- A handful of new national polls conducted in the immediate aftermath of Osama bin Laden's death reveal happiness and relief combined wit...

Mark Blumenthal

Obama Bounce Likely After Bin Laden Killing

HuffingtonPost.com | Mark Blumenthal | Posted 07.02.2011 | Politics

WASHINGTON -- While the killing of al Qaeda mastermind Osama bin Laden lacks true historical precedent, polling following similar events suggests that...

No Evidence Obama Deficit Speech Backfired

Brendan Nyhan | Posted 06.19.2011 | Politics
Brendan Nyhan

Today, NBC's First Read newsletter suggested that Obama's approval ratings are down as a result of his deficit speech last week. But political events rarely have a significant effect on public opinion.

State of the Union Media Prebuttal

Brendan Nyhan | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Brendan Nyhan

In the spirit of my election night bingo post, here's a quick prebuttal to the spin you will hear from the press tonight in its coverage of President ...

The Tactical Fallacy

Brendan Nyhan | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Brendan Nyhan

The reality is that Obama's current standing -- and the rush to blame it on tactical failures -- could be predicted months ago based on structural factors. His approval ratings largely reflect a poor economy.

Judis vs. Judis on presidents and the economy

Brendan Nyhan | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Brendan Nyhan

Back in January, I predicted the birth of a thousand "Why Obama is failing" narratives: It's time to lay down a marker on punditry about the Obama Wh...

More storytelling about Obama's political standing

Brendan Nyhan | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Brendan Nyhan

Writing in the New York Times, Matt Bai downplays the role of the economy in President Obama's current political struggles, arguing that "[i]t's just ...

Presidents and Polls: The Only Way Seems Down

Terry Newell | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Terry Newell

As President Obama contemplates his recent poor poll numbers, he may want to recall that losing the approval of the people seems the norm, not the exception, for presidents.

The economy versus events in Obama approval

Brendan Nyhan | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Brendan Nyhan

Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics has written an ambitious new post arguing that the state of the economy is not necessarily "principally responsible...

When qualitative punditry adds value

Brendan Nyhan | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Brendan Nyhan

Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics objects to my post on Peggy Noonan's mystical interpretations of presidential popularity and mounts a defense of no...

The mysticism of Peggy Noonan

Brendan Nyhan | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Brendan Nyhan

Jonathan Chait had a great post a couple of weeks ago that's worth revisiting because of what it tells us about how pundits reason about politics. A...

The Obama oil spill/approval narrative spreads

Brendan Nyhan | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Brendan Nyhan

The narrative that President Obama's approval ratings are being heavily damaged by the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico is quickly overwhelming the cri...

No evidence for Mellman's "magic" 50% approval

Brendan Nyhan | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Brendan Nyhan

Last week, I criticized Matt Bai's claim that it was an "ominous sign" for Democrats that President Obama's approval rating is under 50%. Writing in ...

More on presidential approval in midterm elections

Brendan Nyhan | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Brendan Nyhan

Two important points of followup on Tuesday's post about how Matt Bai overhyped President Obama's approval rating as "ominous" for Democrats: 1. Firs...

Obama approval: No oil spill effect

Brendan Nyhan | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Brendan Nyhan

In the wake of President Obama's speech to the nation about BP and the Gulf last night, it's worth noting that his approval ratings have not been affe...

Matt Bai: Wrong on presidential approval

Brendan Nyhan | Posted 05.25.2011 | Politics
Brendan Nyhan

In the New York Times Magazine, Matt Bai suggests it is "an ominous sign, historically speaking, for a majority party" when "the president's own appro...