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Primary Predictions

My Final Primary Picks

Chris Weigant | Posted 06.06.2016 | Politics
Chris Weigant

One poll exists from New Mexico, but it is really too old to be very informative. Back in late February, Clinton was up over Sanders by 14 points (47 to 33 percent). That's not much to go on now, though.

Democratic Primary Home Stretch

Chris Weigant | Posted 05.16.2016 | Politics
Chris Weigant

We're really in the home stretch of the Democratic primaries now, as the last few territories and the last eight states will all be voting in the upcoming weeks. Tuesday night, Oregon and Kentucky will weigh in, and then the last six states (who, for some unfathomable reason, all decided to go last this year) will finally get a chance to vote.

Calling Tomorrow's Primary Races

Chris Weigant | Posted 04.25.2016 | Politics
Chris Weigant

The nation's smallest state will vote tomorrow night. Not a whole lot of polling exists here, but it's pretty clear on the Republican side. Donald Trump will sail to victory here, with a huge margin. John Kasich looks to take second, with Cruz far behind.

New York State of Mind

Chris Weigant | Posted 04.18.2016 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Tomorrow's New York primary will be the decisive one, the pundits tell us. It will join a long list of other primaries and caucuses which were also deemed to be the crucial one which would decide the whole race.

Predicting Tuesday's Primaries

Chris Weigant | Posted 03.14.2016 | Politics
Chris Weigant

Calling Florida is pretty easy, on both sides of the aisle. Hillary Clinton will dominate, continuing her sweep of the South. The big news here, however, is going to be Donald Trump beating Marco Rubio in his home state.

New Hampshire Primary Forecasts Obama Reelection

Helmut Norpoth | Posted 03.13.2012 | Politics
Helmut Norpoth

For the record, the Primary Model, with slight modifications, has predicted the winner of the popular vote in all presidential elections since it was introduced in 1996.