Nothing has really moved it at all. Not half a billion dollars in combined expenditures by all sides; not Romney's vice-presidential pick of Paul Ryan; not any speech by either President Obama or Romney. Not even Vice President Joe Biden opening his mouth. Why?
Abandoning his former supporters, his former colleagues, and his president, makes him in some ways the personification of the Romney-Ryan-Ayn Rand glorification of self-interest. He's got his, America. Who cares what you got?
Right now, the two candidates are in a tight race, with Obama holding a slight advantage in the polls. Based on my bump predictions, I expect that the race will continue to be tight after the conventions but that Romney will hold a slight lead.