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Secular Stagnation

The Grim Future of a Stagnant Economy

Aaron Pacitti | Posted 02.04.2016 | Politics
Aaron Pacitti

A new world order will emerge in the next decade. Whether it is one of inclusive, broad-based growth for all or exclusive, unequal growth for a few will be determined by the policies implemented today. It does not look like the world's dominant policy makers are capable or willing to see the consequences of their misguided actions.

Falling Interest Rates and Government Investment

Stephen G. Cecchetti | Posted 02.01.2016 | Business
Stephen G. Cecchetti

To see what's happening to the trend of public funding costs, we try to remove cyclical fluctuations (which also removes the impact of most monetary policy actions) by looking at forward interest rates.

A New Explanation of America's Slow Productivity Growth

David Adler | Posted 08.17.2015 | Business
David Adler

Why is the U.S. economy failing to thrive? The topic of a global malaise has generated intense debate among economists. Their explanations are very technical, but worth considering for an understanding of elite thinking about the issue -- and its limitations.

A Simple Guide to "Secular Stagnation"

Stephen G. Cecchetti | Posted 06.07.2015 | Business
Stephen G. Cecchetti

Since its cyclical peak in 2007 - just prior to the financial crisis - the U.S. economy has grown by only 1.2% at an annual rate. This is down sharply from the 3.0% pace that had prevailed since 1990. The resulting cumulative shortfall now exceeds $2 trillion, or more than $6,500 per capita.

Giving Thanks for Small Things: A Little Light in the Dark Corridors of Power

Jeff Faux | Posted 01.26.2014 | Politics
Jeff Faux

It should be no surprise that it has taken so long for a prominent member of the American policy elite to suggest openly to his colleagues that the core assumption upon which they have been managing the economic crisis might be dead wrong.