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Niall O'Dowd

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IRA Leader Martin McGuinness May Become President of Ireland

Posted: 09/21/11 10:33 AM ET

Martin McGuinness was once a very senior commander in the Provisional IRA and now could become president of Ireland.

His entry last week into the campaign has transformed a sleepy race for Ireland's top constitutional job and head of state into a hotly contested race.

The joke going around is that McGuinness would be the first Irish person to ever command two armies, the IRA and the army of the Irish Republic.

But the established political parties are not joking.

The McGuinness entry into the contest signals a new phase in Irish politics, one that could dramatically change the skyline for ever.

Currently, Sinn Fein are the third largest party in the Irish Republic and largest in Northern Ireland. If McGuinness were to win the race it would catapult his party into the main opposition power to Fine Gael which heads the government.

Harsh economic times has obliterated Fianna Fail, the party which governed Ireland for most of its independence.

They were universally blamed for the economic crash and it appears highly unlikely they will rise again.

A measure of how far they have fallen is that they are not even contesting the presidency, an office they held in every election except one.

Their demise has afforded a huge gap for Sinn Fein. The selection of McGuinness was unexpected. He has been Deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland for several years, a linchpin in the successful peace process there who found a way to work with the Reverend Ian Paisley and his successor, Peter Robinson, form the Democratic Unionist Party who were once utterly opposed to him.

Running in the Republic is a calculated risk. The memories of the IRA campaign are still fresh and he has been roundly attacked for essentially admitting his paramilitary past.

But he is no different from any other guerrilla who adopted peace, such as Mandela and Ireland's former president and father of the nation Eamon De Valera, himself a former IRA leader, when he ran for office.

McGuinness is also a cut above the other politicians in the race, who are mostly second tier figures in their own parties.

No one would ever accuse McGuinness of that. He played a massive role in getting the IRA to set aside their weapons, then in Sinn Fein's peace strategy which brought them to power.

If he wins it will be a revolution in Irish politics and the wheels will have come full circle. Sinn Fein were once the dominant Irish party; way back in 1918 they won a majority of seats in an All Ireland election.

After that came the War of Independence and splits and a very nasty civil war and Sinn Fein faded.

Now, almost a hundred years later they are back, led by McGuinness and Gerry Adams.

If they win the presidency it will send shockwaves through the Irish political system for decades to come.

Thus, the election on October 27th will be closely watched on all sides.

A win for McGuinness will trumpet a new era, scarcely imaginable a few years ago.

 

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03:51 PM on 09/21/2011
This irony of a man whose sole purpose for over 30 years was to subvert the state and overthrow the govt. now wanting to be head of state! Over my dead body!

He's made it clear today that anyone who isn't for him is against him. Fine words from a would be head of state.
10:27 PM on 09/21/2011
Lets just ignorw his role completely in the peace process... thats definitely the way forward!
06:10 AM on 09/22/2011
I agree Cormac. Then all his other achievements can shine forth like beacon in a civilised, free world. Oops!
01:20 PM on 09/21/2011
A couple of minor corrections.

1. Sinn Féin is not the largest party in Northern Ireland. That would be the Democratic Unionist Party, which has 38 elected representatives in the Assembly (the administrative body) compared to Sinn Féin's total of 29.

2. Nor is Sinn Féin the third largest party in the Irish Republic. It has 14 parliamentary representatives, making it the fourth largest.

I'm a little surprised that Niall O'Dowd, an experienced political commentator, could have made such basic errors.
11:11 PM on 09/21/2011
Sinn Féin is the largest party in the north of Ireland in the 2009 European Parliament Elections and The party has five MPs at Westminster and the largest share of the vote in Northern Ireland, but no one from Sinn Fein has ever stepped foot in the chamber of the House of Commons.

So, as of the most recent National Election in the United Kingdom then the largest share of the vote in the North. So yeah Local elections are not national elections.

Sinn Fein is the third largest party in IRELAND. All 32 counties of Ireland.

Sinn Fein is also the wealthiest party in Northern Ireland.
06:16 AM on 09/22/2011
It never ceases to amaze me how people can deny the reality of geography, politics and international agreements. There is no such country as Ireland. The Republic of Ireland instituted in April 1949 comprises 26 counties. Northern Ireland, as part of the UK, comprises 6 counties. They are two separate states. Their separation was voted for by citizens of both countries in 1998 and until such time as the citizens of both countries change their minds the situation will remain the same. Just because you don't agree with it doesn't mean it didn't happen.
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12:44 PM on 09/21/2011
RTE has slashed the odds on Martin.