A Win for Democracy

About two months ago, I wrote a column hoping for success but predicting failure for California's Proposition 11, which would make an independent citizen commission (instead of the state legislature) responsible for determining state legislative district lines. Not allowing self-interested politicians to draw their own districts' lines is a no-brainer, but, as I noted, initiatives like Prop. 11 have failed again and again in recent years. So I'm now crossing my fingers that Prop. 11's slim lead (currently 50.7% to 49.3%) holds up as the last few ballots are counted. After being persuaded by all sorts of misleading arguments to vote against redistricting initiatives in 1982, 1984, 1990, and 2005, it looks like California's voters may have finally done the right thing.

What can we expect if Prop. 11 holds onto its lead and becomes law? First, more competitive races. In the last two general elections, not a single incumbent in the California Legislature lost and not a single seat changed parties. An independent commission presumably would not implement a sweetheart gerrymander that drains all the suspense out of Election Day. Second (and relatedly), fewer extreme politicians. If more districts are more competitive, more candidates for office will have an incentive to run toward the center instead of the edges of the political spectrum. Third, a better correlation between votes and seats won by each party. California's Democrats currently win a higher share of seats in the Legislature than they do of votes cast. Fairer redistricting should prevent such discrepancies from becoming too severe.

Finally, and most importantly, Prop. 11's success shows that redistricting reform is possible. If the largest state in the country -- and one that had rejected four previous redistricting initiatives -- can take away from politicians the power of drawing district lines, then so too can any other state. Excuses that voters don't care about "process" issues or that rabid partisan opposition dooms redistricting initiatives should no longer carry the day. And our democracy should strengthen as a result.

Comments

[mrancer]

By itself, Prop 11 is indeed a no-brainer. But politics in California is rarely simple.

Although I'm a Democrat, I think of myself as a "good government" type willing to meet people in the middle. However, I doubt Prop. 11 will have the results Stephanopoulos prophesies.

1. It's not just that districts are gerrymandered -- it's how people live here. Whole counties went almost 80% for Obama, others went nearly 70% for McCain. Same with Prop 8, the gay marriage measure. When entire counties and metro areas are politically segregated, it's not possible to engineer competitive districts that maintain community of interest.

2. Prop 11 may worsen gridlock in the Legislature, where it takes a 2/3 vote to pass the budget. If Prop 11 does create more party balance in the Legislature, it will reduce the chance of either party putting together a 2/3 majority to get a budget passed.

3. Even in competitive districts that exist under the current system, ideologues of both parties still get elected. For example, the still undecided election in the 4th Congressional District has the candidates separated by 600 votes out of almost 340,000. The apparent leader may be one of the most extreme conservatives in California politics, as was the previous incumbent.

Prop 11 does all the right things, but it may not make much of a difference in our broken state government. The commissioners appointed for the 2011 reapportionment will be challenged to find a way to improve the situation.