The Riddle of Appalachia
As expected, Sen. Hillary Clinton crushed Sen. Barack Obama in yesterday's West Virginia primary. This result means very little, of course. Obama still has the most pledged delegates, the most superdelegates, and the most popular votes, and is still firmly on track to capture the Democratic Party's presidential nomination. While not very politically significant, though, the outcome in West Virginia does shed some new light on the kinds of Democratic primary voters who do and do not vote for Obama.
The so-called "race chasm" theory, conceived not long ago, held that Obama prevails wherever African-Americans make up a very small (i.e. less than 6 percent) or very large (i.e. more than 17 percent) share of a state's population. The idea was that very white states lack a legacy of racial discrimination, and are thus receptive to a black man running for president, while the blacks in heavily African-American states are able to overwhelm the less amenable whites who live there. In between, where blacks make up more than 6 percent but less than 17 percent of a state's population, racial polarization reduces Obama's appeal to white voters but African-American voters are not numerous enough to compensate.
This theory had correctly predicted the result in just about every primary to date. Yesterday, though, it misfired spectacularly. West Virginia, a state where blacks make up just 3 percent of the population -- a state that was founded because of opposition to slavery -- went for Clinton by 40 points over Obama. States with similar black/white demographics (e.g. Nebraska, Maine, Washington) had all previously gone for Obama by significant margins. So what on earth happened in West Virginia? Why did the "race chasm" theory fail so dramatically?
Josh Marshall posits an interesting historical answer. Marshall observes that West Virginia is part of Appalachia, a region with a historical, ethnic, and socioeconomic profile distinct from the eastern seaboard, the deep South, or the Midwestern plains. For a variety of reasons, Marshall suggests, Appalachian voters are particularly likely to support Clinton over Obama.
But this explanation is not very satisfying either. Yes, West Virginia went overwhelmingly for Clinton while Southern states like Alabama and Mississippi fell into the Obama column. But white voters in West Virginia were essentially indistinguishable from their peers in the deep South. According to exit poll data, Clinton won West Virginia white voters by a 69-23 margin -- and Alabama and Mississippi white voters by almost identical 72-25 and 70-26 margins, respectively.
What these numbers mean is that Obama doesn't exactly have an "Appalachia problem." After all, if West Virginia had a black population akin to Alabama or Mississippi's, Obama would almost certainly have won the state. And if Alabama and Mississippi had the same black/white demographics as West Virginia, Obama would almost certainly have been trounced. Rather, Obama's greatest difficulty seems to be with white voters both in Appalachia and in certain nearby states. For whatever reason, white voters in states like Alabama, Arkansas, Indiana, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, and West Virginia have all proven extremely reluctant to support Obama, instead preferring Clinton by margins of at least 20 points.
Still, there is hope that Obama can increase his appeal to these states' white voters in the general election. For one thing, whites in some Southern and Midwestern states were surprisingly receptive to Obama. Since Obama lost Georgia whites by only 10 points, there would seem to be no reason why he should lose Alabama and Mississippi whites by 45 points. Similarly, since Obama won Virginia whites by 5 points, there would seem to be no reason why he should lose North Carolina whites by 24 points. A general election is also a very different contest than a Democratic primary, and many of the whites who voted for Clinton over Obama can be expected to support Obama when he becomes the party's nominee.
Finally, and most importantly, Obama seems well aware of his unpopularity with certain white voters, and eager to do his best to improve the situation. It is a very good sign that today's New York Times headline reads: "After Lopsided Loss, Obama Woos Blue-Collar Voters." Wooing may not always work -- but it plainly beats ignoring the problem and hoping it will go away.
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"When poor Appalachians hear black people loudly demanding restitution for their ancestors' slavery, we take it as an affront, as we came from similar backgrounds"
- SIMILAR BACKGROUNDS?!!! - Krikkit you say you are educated but certainly not educated about slavery and the treatment of slaves versus indentured servants. You are certainly not educated about what has been denied and stolen from Blacks for hundreds of years. W. Virginians indentured or not had the right and freedom to go and start a life for themselves. Indentured or not, the color of their skin allowed them to do whatever they pleased. Remember, the Civil Rights Act was only enacted a little more than 4 decades ago.
I'm so sick and tired of people asking why did Obama lose by such a wide margin or why didn't he campaign there. All they showed on TV were saying they believed he is a Muslim or that he's Black. Not once did I here any of them say, "he didn't campaign enough here!". It would not have mattered if he went there for 1 day or for every single day for a month, he still would've lost. These people have long held ingrained beliefs and they are not going to change. This is not some movie where the racist guy has a change of heart when he realizes the Black guy ain't so bad after all.
If Clinton was ahead and winning she wouldn't give a rats behind about W. Va. Almost heaven my
You are wrong on this one. It is an Appalachia problem. Yes - they are white, uneducated and poor. Yes, perhaps if they were black, not such a problem. BUT Whites are voting for him in great numbers EXCEPT states touched by the ignorant, backward bigots of Appalachia.
Stereotype much?
lived in Appalachia much? I have. brown skinned, immigrant, well-educated, articulate, entrepreneur, employer .. Obama will *not* get the benefit of the doubt .. he will need to plant his feet in Appalachian soil and campaign 4 times as hard as a any other "liberal" (the right's hyperbole, not mine) candidate would ...
I am a hard working white male in the Appalachian foothills of GA and can verify that there are a lot of ignorant backward bigots here. It is a shame that many are racist, but the ones that are just stupid can be won over.
Obama/Colbert '08
Your words explain everything.
Hey, don't fault the Hillary base too much. Without them, who would we get to run off and fight our wars for us? (tongue in cheek comment in case it isn't clear)
whites didnt vote for him in FL, CA, NJ or NY....how do youexplain that?
That is stupid. Whites did vote for him in those states he just didn't win them. Don't make ignorant arguments.
0bviously, you've come to some wrong conclusions regarding "black/white demographi
By the way, if the WV outcome is "not very politically significant," why spend all this time trying to figure out what it allegedly means? Seems weird.
Kansas is coming around. What's the matter with Appalachia?
What's the matter with them? There's something wrong with people who don't vote for your rock star?
The arrogance. Sheesh!
Imagine if someone asked, "What's wrong with so-and-so for not favoring Hillary?"
try taking some paxil for that anger.
Even through moonshine-addled brains, most people are still able to perceive condescending attitudes. Moreover, in a culture where change comes slowly, people are justifiably suspicious of claims of impending paradigm shifts.
The element of Kansas you refer to is actively, even proudly, backward. But Appalachia distrusts and avoids any kind of activism.
Shouldn't one at least try to understand a culture before holding it in contempt?
Should Jews try to understand and empathize why the Nazi wanted them exterminated before holding them in contempt? or should they just hold them in contempt because they wanted them exterminate?
Patiently waiting for unemotional answer.
also the republican anti-patriotic campaign worked and the Clintons who have run 4 presidential campaigns made more stops in WV than Obama.
a lot of people in WV may have voted for Obama if he'd campaigned more in WV
I think he's going to ask Edwards to stump for him in WV.
guess who received more votes last night, Obama or McCain? if you guessed Obama you would be right! So, if he can get just 50% or more of the remaining voters(including Hillary's), he still gets the state in the general. BUT, this is a state that voted for Bush twice, which suggests that a lot of those clinton voters voted for BUSH , twice! So, where are those votes really going in the fall, even if HRC somehow gets the nomionation?
I have heard much about this Appalachian argument and the impact voters from this particular region have on the Democratic primaries.
It's become quite apparent that Obama is struggling with the blue-collar vote, while for Clinton, it's just a walk in the park. The demographics in the Appalachian region have been described by many analysts as old, white, rural, and uneducated. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I suppose people from this socio-economic background are slightly more traditional, less progressive, unacclimatized to the new age of technology?
Our two candidates are both professionals, highly educated (Clinton- Yale, Obama- Harvard) and pretty well-off, especially Clinton. How can one figure that the Appalachian demographic would gravitate more towards Clinton than Obama? His life story is rather compelling, coming from a broken household, and struggling with his self-identity. His own demons and economic struggles SHOULD BE resonating with these voters, especially in these uncertain times. If these voters are really that narrow-minded and traditional in nature because of their lack of education or whatnot, how could they even consider voting for a woman?
Another HuffPo elitist. I'll bet W Virginians have more satellite dishes per capita than any other state. You probably use rabbit earsoil. with f
It isn't a matter of gravitating toward the new, it's a matter of being reactionary against a perception of "entitlement demand." I'm an educated Appalachian, so take my word for it.
Appalachians come from nothing, historically speaking. We pride ourselves on being able to get by on very little. We broke from Virginia during the civil war, not to side with high-minded abolishionists, but to poke a finger in the eye of rich down-slope coastal Virginians who happened to be slave-owners. Incidently, much of the population of Appalachia began life in the colonies as indentured servants, term-limit white slaves if you will.
When poor Appalachians hear black people loudly demanding restitution for their ancestors' slavery, we take it as an affront, as we came from similar backgrounds, but demanded nothing from anybody, and never contributed to slavery. When we hear about anybody demanding a handout it offends us. Consider the lack of support for Obama in Appalachia as a generalized reaction against black culture in these terms, and you might begin to see a pattern.
Incidently, for the record, I am an Obama supporter. But then again, I have a college education and I spent many years outside of Appalachia pursuing my career. But I still have roots in Appalachia and I understand the mindset.
I attended undergraduate school in Applachia: Applachian State University. This, indeed, is a proud, hardscrabble, and self-sufficient part of the United States. That being said, it is, indeed a place where those of a different skin color are *not* given the benefit of the doubt or receive the same grace and forgiveness (there is plenty of this ethic in Appalachia) that others get.
That being said, this area is also a rebellious and pragmatic one where people generally understand what the pablum and sheen of corporation and Nation speak can mean ... witness the battle of Blair mountain ...
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That being said, John Edwards will be an important ally in helping to shed light on how much Obama is similar to those who come from nothing .... like me, the brown-skinned immigrant whose best friends happen to be from Appalachia ...
I must confess that it is a great work of political PR that Mrs. Clinton is able to represent herself as a friend to white working class people, anywhere. As one of her constituents, she is one of the most aloof and disconnected of Senators. It is nearly impossible to get any response from her office on issues of concern, if you want to talk about elitist. This is miles away from Chuck Schumer, our other senator, who is always very responsive and helpful to his constituents. Mrs. Clinton has a sense of entitlement that has not served her well in this campaign, but that aspect of her character evidently didn't show up in WVA.
I suspect the answer to the mystery has to do with aging populations in some areas, and the movement of younger, better educated voters out of those areas into areas with higher paying more plentiful jobs. People that have moved away from their families and youth are often more open to change.
you related to George ? If so I know where you are coming from, you think you are writing something new I got news for you.... you are not.
Nicholas, you need to take a second look at the historical explanation regarding the distinction between Appalachian and other descendent populations. As a West Virginia native and a student of history, I can assure you that the Appalachian theory is substantially correct.
Appalachians consider ourselves to be quite distinct from our neighbors. Yes, West Virginians chose to side with the north, a move that led to the creation of our state, but the dynamics had nothing to do with "our fellow black brother" and everything to do with a historic animosity held toward rich coastal plantation owners who looked down on us "hill folk" as landless and shiftless commoners. It was an opportunity to stick it in their eye.
Another fact about the origins of Appalachian peoples. The coastal plains were settled first by the wealthy, and the mountainous regions were only settled later by waves of poor immigrants, mostly from Scottland and Germany. Many of these people, including my ancestors, paid for their passage by indenturing themselves. Afterward such servitude, it was a rugged business to make a subsistence life for themselves in the unpopulated mountains.
Given the above, it shouldn't be difficult to see that poor Appalachians view black Americans as competitors rather than brothers, as the ingrained history is one of hard subsistence. Appalachians take pride in their ability to make do with very little, but very little means nothing to share.
The Civil War was a long time ago and to harbor resentment (against fellow suffers no less) for so long isn't healthy. Sounds like it is past time to the 21st Century. Having very little means a greater responsibility to promote the common good for increased prosperity for all, not hoarding against a winter that has already broken the backs of 80% of the country, black and white alike.
One of the talking heads on MSNBC (yeah, I usually abstain, but I wanted to hear the endorsement!) made the comment that Hillary probably would have beenJohn Kerry by about the same margin. Interesting point. Could it be the edumacated that are especially disliked? Of course, Hillary (like Bush) has similar educational credentials to Kerry and Obama, but the Bubba's pander so much better.
Clinton's people now declared that she leads the popular votes by around 200,000 votes by not counting caucause states. I think she would lead by millions votes if she only count her own votes, ignoring all of Obama's wins. To Clinton, only voters who voted for her count, not every vote counts as she lied.She even threatened that she will get Edwards' endorsement , after he had endorsed Obama! This woman needs psychotic help urgently.
In college I had to read the book "How to Lie With Statistics
This is a perfect example.
You've got a college education. You don't count either.
I'm still wondering why all those whites in Oregon support Obama 55 to 35 according to latest polls -- are they just lazy whites, rather than hard working?. Seems its only Hillary voters are that are hard working whites.
"This woman needs psychotic help urgently."
Psychotic help? Maybe Charles Manson is available.
Not sure how he could help her, though.
And herein lies the BIAS of the media coverage Hilary is losing the AA vote by 70 POINTS and they just blow it off like its NOTHING and that is MORE problematic for the Democrats. Listen the white vote is going to be split between the republican candidate and the democratic candidate democrats rarely win the majority of white vote. Its the AA vote that they win by 80 points or more it coalsce thats what send Presidents like Bill Clinton to victory. But here is the media harping on WV and Obama winning 30 to 40% of the white vote. If there was a state that was 94% AA she would be embarassed there look at Washington DC see how she did. To MAGNIFY it into an Obama weakness when in the general election the white candidates DO NOT get the majority of the white vote is BIAS. Does Hilary seriously think that she is going to get 67% of the white vote in WV if she was running against McCain. Its not going to happen because its a split vote and when you split a demographic you weaken it. Obama won the white vote in California in Virginia and in Wisconsin not to mention those states that he won by 30 40 points. But they are turning it into the Black adn white issue trust the media to sexualize these things for ratings.
Carol
Exactly Especially with the fact that NO DEM candidate ever won white votes in the GE! So the media just listened to the Clintons's spins and magnified it relentlessly that it 's Obama's weakness, ignoring the fact that it's the DEM's weakness. The woman is delusional but it seems her supporters and the media just help her along. They should help her to wind down to earth instead of making her crash at the end for her health concern.
I think they ignore Obama's strenghts Obama won the youth vote by 49 points over Hilary in NC. Its not just winning the Youth vote and AA vote by large margins its turnout that will be key and he can get them to turn out and if they turn out in large numbers in certain places they may be able to flip a few states.
Carol
Isn't our volunteer military largely formed with people from these states? Hillary is more militaristic than Obama.
The average for EACH state is around 1%. There is no "bump" in the numbers for "people from these states."
Where does the other half of the army come from/? :P
In all the hyperventilating over West Virginia, how come nobody mentions that it's very, very small? WV has 1.8 million people on a good day, making it bigger than Philadelphia but smaller than Houston. It has 3 congressional districts and 5 electoral votes. Key swing state? Don't ask me what's wrong with West Virginia, but don't worry about it, either.
I've mentioned it quite a bit over the past 2 days. Of course, I don't have a 24 hour cable news channel...
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