The Riddle of Appalachia

As expected, Sen. Hillary Clinton crushed Sen. Barack Obama in yesterday's West Virginia primary. This result means very little, of course. Obama still has the most pledged delegates, the most superdelegates, and the most popular votes, and is still firmly on track to capture the Democratic Party's presidential nomination. While not very politically significant, though, the outcome in West Virginia does shed some new light on the kinds of Democratic primary voters who do and do not vote for Obama.

The so-called "race chasm" theory, conceived not long ago, held that Obama prevails wherever African-Americans make up a very small (i.e. less than 6 percent) or very large (i.e. more than 17 percent) share of a state's population. The idea was that very white states lack a legacy of racial discrimination, and are thus receptive to a black man running for president, while the blacks in heavily African-American states are able to overwhelm the less amenable whites who live there. In between, where blacks make up more than 6 percent but less than 17 percent of a state's population, racial polarization reduces Obama's appeal to white voters but African-American voters are not numerous enough to compensate.

This theory had correctly predicted the result in just about every primary to date. Yesterday, though, it misfired spectacularly. West Virginia, a state where blacks make up just 3 percent of the population -- a state that was founded because of opposition to slavery -- went for Clinton by 40 points over Obama. States with similar black/white demographics (e.g. Nebraska, Maine, Washington) had all previously gone for Obama by significant margins. So what on earth happened in West Virginia? Why did the "race chasm" theory fail so dramatically?

Josh Marshall posits an interesting historical answer. Marshall observes that West Virginia is part of Appalachia, a region with a historical, ethnic, and socioeconomic profile distinct from the eastern seaboard, the deep South, or the Midwestern plains. For a variety of reasons, Marshall suggests, Appalachian voters are particularly likely to support Clinton over Obama.

But this explanation is not very satisfying either. Yes, West Virginia went overwhelmingly for Clinton while Southern states like Alabama and Mississippi fell into the Obama column. But white voters in West Virginia were essentially indistinguishable from their peers in the deep South. According to exit poll data, Clinton won West Virginia white voters by a 69-23 margin -- and Alabama and Mississippi white voters by almost identical 72-25 and 70-26 margins, respectively.

What these numbers mean is that Obama doesn't exactly have an "Appalachia problem." After all, if West Virginia had a black population akin to Alabama or Mississippi's, Obama would almost certainly have won the state. And if Alabama and Mississippi had the same black/white demographics as West Virginia, Obama would almost certainly have been trounced. Rather, Obama's greatest difficulty seems to be with white voters both in Appalachia and in certain nearby states. For whatever reason, white voters in states like Alabama, Arkansas, Indiana, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, and West Virginia have all proven extremely reluctant to support Obama, instead preferring Clinton by margins of at least 20 points.

Still, there is hope that Obama can increase his appeal to these states' white voters in the general election. For one thing, whites in some Southern and Midwestern states were surprisingly receptive to Obama. Since Obama lost Georgia whites by only 10 points, there would seem to be no reason why he should lose Alabama and Mississippi whites by 45 points. Similarly, since Obama won Virginia whites by 5 points, there would seem to be no reason why he should lose North Carolina whites by 24 points. A general election is also a very different contest than a Democratic primary, and many of the whites who voted for Clinton over Obama can be expected to support Obama when he becomes the party's nominee.

Finally, and most importantly, Obama seems well aware of his unpopularity with certain white voters, and eager to do his best to improve the situation. It is a very good sign that today's New York Times headline reads: "After Lopsided Loss, Obama Woos Blue-Collar Voters." Wooing may not always work -- but it plainly beats ignoring the problem and hoping it will go away.

Comments

[altohone]

First of all. Limbaugh voters skewed the numbers in some of those states.

Second, winning 27% amounts to a lot of good hard working folks.

Nobody's asking why Hillary couldn't even match her numbers from Arkansas despite the demographics.


Has anybody done a comparison factoring in the digital divide?
Could it be that the numbers actually reflect those without access to fact-based news, as opposed to the corporate media?
I think the exit polls said only 17% said race was important to their decision... other factors may well be more important.

[calluna]

WV was founded because of opposition to the slaveholders who had a grip on political power in Virginia before the Civil War, NOT in opposition to slavery per se.

[Mack20]

Very good. There were no plantations in western Va. There were a number of poor dirt farmers, though. I'm from East Tennessee and our state from Knoxville east generally supported the Union Cause. In fact in 1791 when Tennessee bacame a state, our General Assembly had to vote to be a Free or Slave state. The slave designation won by ONE vote! Our state paid the price for that decision during the civil war. Only Virginia had more battles on its soil.

[FrankDiPrima]

To put it in context, West Virginia is least educated state in the nation (fewer college graduates per 1000 than any other), the second oldest, and has almost no African-Americans. The state was made for Hillary -- white, old, and ignorant -- that's her base. Hillary's statement that no Democrat can win in November without carrying West Virginia is about as true as her Bosnia sniper story. In 2004, Bush carried West Virginia by almost 13 percentage points in 2004 and won by only 3 nationally, and by 6 percentage points in 2000.

[northeast73]

The real answer is the education level of these people. How many went to college? How many

In the West Virginia DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY...the education of voters was as follows.....

29% Hold a 2 year college degree
15% Hold a 4 Year college degree
14% Hold a Post Graduate Degree.

Meaning 59% of voters had at least 2 years of college.....K

[obamagirl1968]

Wrong for another reason. ALL of the states listed STILL have parts that are considered Appalachia. West Virginia unlike all the other surrounding states is ENTIRELY, SQUARELY in the HEART of Appalachia. For example, while most of Western PA is in Appalachia, the southeastern corner (Philly metro) is entirely East Coast which narrowed his losing the state to under 9 percentage points. Look at the CNN county by county maps. Duh!




Oh, you must be from WV....

[Nicholas Stephanopoulos - Huffpost Blogger]

Arkansas, Indiana, Louisiana, and Oklahoma do not overlap at all with Appalachia. And in several of the other states listed (e.g. Alabama and Mississippi), Clinton won by equally large margins in heavily white non-Appalachian counties as in heavily white Appalachian counties. (This also is evident from the CNN maps.) Hence my skepticism of the "Appalachia problem."

[mykindoftown]

West Virginia broke away from Virginia at the start of the Civil War to remain part of the Union. It was NOT a confederate state.

[RDixon]

"West Virginia, a state where blacks make up just 3 percent of the population "

Wrong.

"a state that was founded because of opposition to slavery "

Wrong.

Ever hear of a guy named Jason Blair?

[Nicholas Stephanopoulos - Huffpost Blogger]

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/54000.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Virginia

[RDixon]

Technicality but 3.3% is not 3 % and that number is also wrong.

There are many people who do not bother to fill out the census forms.

Truth is, no one knows what percentage of WV's population is black.

Clinton won the state because she spent a lot of cash here campaigning during the two weeks before the election.

Her and Bill visited places where a President or presidential candidate had never before in history visited.

If Obama had campaigned as hard as the Clintons did, the results would have been much different.

Of particular note about the WV results is: If Obama had won the state Hillary would be saying WV is one of those "small" states that doesn't matter in the general election.

I live in WV and I voted for Obama.

There is only one race I recognize and that is the human race.

Am I am certainly not the only Mountaineer who feels that way.

[BADEN]

"For whatever reason, white voters in states like Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, and West Virginia have all proven extremely reluctant to support Obama, instead preferring Clinton by margins of at least 20 points."

Uh..."It's the CONFEDERACY, silly"

It IS that simple.
Simple minds.
Ignorance/Fear/Delusions of exclusivity.

[5thGenDem]

Ignorance: Not knowing WV was never in the Confederacy.

There's racial prejudice everywhere. Here in Ohio Clinton received 61% of the white vote. She received only 10% of the black vote. Unfortunately racial prejudice cuts both ways!

[erykah]

Please. Black people wo do not vote for Hill are not racist. We put them in the white house, twice. Hill loss the black vote because of her race baiting. Plain and simple.

[paganmist]

I love it how people can claim that Obama was insulting whites by suggesting that being treated poorly by the government made them bitter, but then expect blacks to hang on to Hillary while she's constantly saying,

"Obama can't win the blue collar white vote, and that's why he can't win."

Hello? Whether or not it's true, being democratic also has a lot to do with learning how to phrase what you say better.

So if rural whites feel justified in fleeing from Obama because he made a gaffe that we ALL KNOW (for those who actually read the entire accounts of what he said) was meant with better intentions than elitism, then blacks can feel justified in fleeing from Hillary in making a gaffe that we can't know for certain isn't proof positive that she's a racist.