My blog posts on religion have attracted a lot of controversy. Religious people are annoyed by my claim that belief in God will go the way of horse transportation, and for much the same reason, specifically an improved standard of living.
The view that religious belief will give way to atheism is known as the secularization thesis. The specific version that I have described is known as the existential security hypothesis. The basic idea is that as people become more affluent, they are less worried about lacking for basic necessities, or dying early from violence or disease. In other words they are secure in their own existence. They do not feel the need to appeal to supernatural entities to calm their fears and insecurities.
The notion that good living conditions are associated with a decline in religious belief, importance of religion, church attendance, and so forth is supported by a mountain of evidence assembled by Pippa Norris and Ronald Inglehart in their book, Sacred and Secular,1 as well as numerous more recent works.2
We can be as sure of the relationship between material security and declining religious belief as we are of any other such connection in the social sciences. That does not prevent some serious scholars, like political scientist Eric Kaufmann,3 from making the opposite case that religious fundamentalists will outbreed the rest of us. Yet, noisy as they are, such groups are tiny minorities, and they will become even more marginalized as global prosperity increases, drawing existential security along with it. That is certainly what has happened in history up to now.
If we assume that prosperity is responsible for declining religiosity in the world, and that prosperity will continue to increase, it is possible to estimate the date at which the world will switch over from being a majority believing in God to majority atheist. I further assumed that once a country becomes as wealthy as the godless countries of today, it, too, will turn against religion.
For my analysis, I selected the 10 developed countries with the highest level of disbelief in God. They were Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Japan, Netherlands, Sweden, and the U.K. Their average disbelief in God conveniently averaged at 50.0 percent, implying that these countries were at the transition between religion and atheism in 2004 when the data were collected.
Their average GDP (corrected for purchasing power) was $28,590, or 2.63 times the world average in that year.
I conservatively assumed that the world economy can grow at 2 percent per year, which is somewhat lower than the actual growth rate over the past 50 years, and only half the current growth rate, according to the World Bank. How long will it take until the average country in the entire world is as wealthy as the average godless country was in 2004?
The answer is that it would take about 49 years. Adding 49 years to 2004 means that the world transition to atheism will take place by 2053, or 42 years into the future. If the world economy were to continue plugging along at 4 percent, it would be as soon as 2038. A decades-long global recession would have the opposite consequence.
Perhaps the revelation that four decades along, the typical country in the world will have a religious composition and standard of living similar to that of contemporary Europe, or Japan, is not all that earth-shattering. Yet, it is highly optimistic in the sense that these countries enjoy the best standard of living ever experienced throughout human history.
If the rest of the world follows the lead of these countries, we can all look forward to a better future in terms of material well-being. Contrary to the claims of religious leaders, these are highly moral countries with an unusual level of social trust, so that the loss of religious belief is not something to be feared.4 But that is the subject of another post.
Sources:
1. Norris, P., & Inglehart, R. (2004). Sacred and secular: Religion and politics worldwide. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
2. Barber, N. (2011). A Cross-National test of the uncertainty hypothesis of religious belief Cross-Cultural Research, 45, 318-333.
3. Kaufmann, E. (2010). Shall the religious inherit the earth? London: Profile books.
4. Zuckerman, P. (2008). Society without God: What the least religious nations can tell us about contentment. New York: New York University Press.
However, to extend your question in a more pragmatic direction, when will atheism Prevail over politics?
Again, majority rule, the bedrock of democracy is the obstacle. By a Huge majority, `In god we trust' was just reinstitued on coin & paper currency by the congress. Here is a resounding & eloquent repudiation of it, which emphatically shows there are sounder things we trust in:
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-shermer-god-20111104,0,877363.story
At every opportunity, the US govnt. attempts to trample upon our constitutional guarantee of separation of church & state.
Thats because it's gobbldegook!
You don't need God for peace, love, understanding, forgiveness, generosity and other kind acts, but some people find inspiration on a personal level. The belief may fall off in numbers, but I hope the belief never dies. Especially the right to worship freely in the United States. That's a constitutional right. Ironically you read about the movie stars with all of their wealth and their personal problems and their therapists. Billionaires stepping in front of trains, stock market employees jumping out of windows when the market crashes. Even wealth can't fill a void that some people seek. I believe that many turn to religion for inner peace and other reasons besides some primitive fear or insecurities as the author suggests. Bill Maher rightly criticized a highly righteous religious guest on his show for her suggesting he was inferior because he did not share her belief. Turn it around, atheists that post on the HP that condemn, criticize or mock believers are guilty of the same thing.
Other gods might offer moral justification for one group over against others. Such gods would probably thrive whenever disparities and social tensions increase.
Other gods might promise an escape from reality.
But other gods, like the God of the bible, are more concerned with the ordering of relationships -- interpersonal, societal, interethnic and with the environment. As long as we need guidance on how to order human life with justice and compassion, how to live in sustainable communities, and how to practice forgiveness and acceptance with one another, it is hard to see how such a God can be made irrelevant by a rise in prosperity. Some things in life will always require a measure of spiritual sustenance.
Of course, we may become so isolated from each other, so impoverished in our relationships, and so indifferent to the well-being of others that we don't even know what we're missing. God of grace, have mercy on us.
To be quite honest that would make those "paranoid" islamist extremist right,then,wouldn't it?
The only thing atheists can argue is that it seems to be a natural psychological progression. Much like the phases of belief in Santa. We buy the claim as kids because our parents sell it to us. We grow out of it but in tern sell it to our own kids because we like the idea of getting presents.
But, irrational beliefs have always been part of our species existence and I don't see that changing. If atheists prevail, it will be because of our own marketing and appeal. But that IS NOT a given.
Marketing can be successful, even with superstition, even if the belief is patently false.
If we prevail as atheists, I want it on terms of truth, not force. On debate, not force. I think the best argument we can make long term is " Which is more important to you(the believer). Having the belief. Or, finding out you were wrong. Which is why atheists don't see "faith" as a virtue. I would rather know the truth tan wallow in self delusion simply because it sounds nice.