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Nigel Barber

Nigel Barber

Posted: September 27, 2010 06:28 PM

Why Atheism Will Replace Religion

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Atheism is a peculiarly modern phenomenon. Why do modern conditions produce atheism? Does this mean that religion is on the way out?

First, as to the distribution of atheism in the world, an instructive pattern emerges. In sub-Saharan Africa there is almost no atheism.1 Belief in God declines in more developed countries and atheism is concentrated in Europe in countries such as Sweden (64% nonbelievers), Denmark (48%), France (44%) and Germany (42%). In contrast, the incidence of atheism in most sub-Saharan countries is below 1%. (The U.S. is more religious than other developed countries with only about one person in eight expressing disbelief).

The question of why economically developed countries turn to atheism has been batted around by anthropologists for about eighty years. Anthropologist James Fraser proposed that scientific prediction and control of nature supplants religion as a means of controlling uncertainty in our lives. This hunch is supported by data showing that the more educated countries have higher levels of non-belief and there are strong correlations between atheism and intelligence.

Atheists are more likely to be college-educated people who live in cities and they are highly concentrated in the social democracies of Europe. Atheism thus blossoms amid affluence where most people feel economically secure. But why?

It seems that people turn to religion as a salve for the difficulties and uncertainties of their lives.2 In social democracies, there is less fear and uncertainty about the future because social welfare programs provide a safety net and better health care means that fewer people can expect to die young. People who are less vulnerable to the hostile forces of nature feel more in control of their lives and less in need of religion.

In addition to being the opium of the people (as Karl Marx contemptuously phrased it), religion may also promote fertility, particularly by promoting marriage.3 Large families are preferred in agricultural countries as a source of free labor. In developed "atheist" countries, women have exceptionally small families and do not need religion helping them to raise large families.

Even the psychological functions of religion face stiff competition today. When people experience psychological difficulties they turn to their doctor, psychologist, or psychiatrist. They want a scientific fix and prefer the real psychotropic medicines dished out by physicians to the metaphorical opiates offered by religion.

Moreover, sport psychologists find that spectatorship yields much the same kind of social, and spiritual, benefits as people obtain from church membership. Precisely the same argument can be made for other forms of entertainment with which spectators become deeply involved. Indeed, organized religion is striking back by trying to compete in popular media, such as televangelism and Christian rock and by hosting live secular entertainment in church.

The reasons that churches lose ground in developed countries can be summarized in market terms. First, with better science, and with government safety nets, and smaller families, there is less fear and uncertainty in daily life and hence less of a market for religion. At the same time many alternative products are being offered, such as psychotropic medicines and electronic entertainment that have fewer strings attached.

The market has spoken. It is predicting more empty pews but only in developed countries. Religious belief continues unabated among poor countries. Ironically, these are the places with the highest fertility so that the number of religious people on the planet will increase along with the population explosion.

In the end, though, as African countries develop, they will become as godless as Europe.
Ultimately, organized religion is on the way out. The only thing that could prevent this from happening would be a sharp decline in global standards of living. That would require some form of ecological collapse. Think a very large asteroid, a very nasty epidemic, extreme global warming, or derivatives traders rum amok.

1. Zuckerman, P. (2007). Atheism: Contemporary numbers and patterns. In M. Martin (ed.), The Cambridge companion to atheism. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. This book is not held by any U.S. Library.
2. Barber, N. (in press). A cross-national test of the uncertainty hypothesis of religious belief. Cross-Cultural Research.
3. Sanderson, S. K. (2008). Adaptation, evolution, and religion. Religion, 38, 141-156.

 
 
 
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04:04 AM on 11/18/2010
"more educated countries have higher levels of non-belief and there are strong correlations between atheism and intelligence." If you're using such stats to "prove" atheists' "superior" intelligence, you should have no qualms about them being used to "prove" certain races/sexes inferior, namely blacks/females; IQ studies show those groups inferior to their counterparts. However, while using IQ tests to argue the latter point is unPC, hypocrites joyously use those studies to argue the intellectual inferiority of theists; even though few can probably explain what such studies actually mean in reality. The idea that religion is dying and atheism is ascending is false. For example, read "Science, 'frauds' trigger a decline in atheism." Atheism must be specifically defined. Rejection of "God" does not mean acceptance of atheism. In Sweden, only 23% say there's no God, life force or spirit, that same percentage as say there is a God. However 53% believe there is a life force or spirit. This according to Eurobarometer. Similar results are repeated in other supposed atheist countries. It is not that atheism is ascending but that people are looking to other forms of spirituality; perhaps paganism, Buddhism, deism, etc. Even Dawkins admits a strong argument for a deist God can be made. What we know of "science" today is rather than explain more, it actually opens up more questions as it makes the world even more mysterious; much of which points to a God (ie.digital encoding in DNA, as John Lennox says)
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Gareth Harris
Scientist, Priest, SentimentalStargazer.com
08:12 AM on 11/14/2010
Carl Sagan had a slightly different take on changes in religion. In addition to rejection of traditional religions, he saw an attraction to wonders shown by science to be more impressive than mesopotamian magic and miracles. He said: “A religion old or new, that stressed the magnificence of the universe as revealed by modern science, might be able to draw forth reserves of reverence and awe hardly tapped by the conventional faiths. Sooner or later, such a religion will emerge.”
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DarianSentient
Omnium Bonum Est
11:26 PM on 11/12/2010
Atheism will eventually supplant religion, but only once religion stops being profitable.

Though this assumes religious dogma does not result in the destruction of our planet first.
09:39 AM on 11/07/2010
Faith declines in more developed countries because the people start thinking they have blessed themselves, when in truth the Lord God of Israel has given them all they have.
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AlienPet13
11:11 PM on 11/12/2010
This comment makes no sense and is in complete contradiction to the doctrine of the faith you profess. As I recall, "...Jesus "Looked around and said to his disciples," (Mark 10:23) "How hard it is for the rich to enter the kingdom of God." It is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle, than for a rich person to enter the kingdom of God!" According to the 'logic' of this particular faith, God does not reward ANYONE with material 'riches.'
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DarianSentient
Omnium Bonum Est
11:23 PM on 11/12/2010
How so?
07:00 PM on 10/17/2010
Nice article. I have a few quibbles. I don't thing religion is going to go away soon. Social critics have predicted its demise for 150 years, and it hasn't happened yet. Remember that the 9/11 hijackers were all pretty well educated and prosperous. While I think it simplistic to say they did what they did because of their religious beliefs, these beliefs did play a role.

Also, Marx was not being contemptuous of religion when he called it the opium of the people. Read the quote in its context. Only people who haven't read Marx use this quote in the context of contempt.

Lastly, atheism is not a particularly modern concept. It has a rich tradition in ancient philosophical traditions throughout the world. Epicurus in Greece, Lucretius in Rome, the Carvaka tradition in India, early Buddhism, etc., all attest to the strength of atheist thought in ancient times.
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DarianSentient
Omnium Bonum Est
11:31 PM on 11/12/2010
Mostly agreed, particularly with the influence of atheistic thought in ancient societies. However, I would like to know why you think it simplistic to say that suicide bombers (etc.) are primarily motivated by their religious beliefs, particularly in cases of well-educated participants. What other factors do you think are in play?
03:52 AM on 10/17/2010
"Ultimately, organized religion is on the way out."

Wasn't this already prophesized in the Bible?
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DarianSentient
Omnium Bonum Est
11:33 PM on 11/12/2010
Possibly so, though due to the absolute authoritarian nature of organized religion, if it is POSSIBLE for religion to be on the way out, we probably shouldn't take their word for anything.
10:43 AM on 11/13/2010
I am sorry but I am not quite sure exactly what you are stating. Are you saying that we should not trust what organized religions say? What did you mean by "the absolute authoritarian nature of organized religion"? Are you saying that religious truth claims are different from truth claims made by other people?

Sorry. Probably everyone else understands your point.
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harkonnen
Alien life-form studying humans from space.
06:18 PM on 10/07/2010
We have irrefutable evidence the biblical God does not exist. It's called the Bible.
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SolarPowerGuy
Ph.D., Immunology; Solar power @ home; Green Party
02:35 PM on 10/07/2010
"Ultimately, organized religion is on the way out. The only thing that could prevent this from happening would be a sharp decline in global standards of living. That would require some form of ecological collapse. Think a very large asteroid, a very nasty epidemic, extreme global warming, or derivatives traders rum amok."

Mr. Barber, the Judeo-Christian religions have been anticipating your thoughts since the writing of the book of Genesis:

"Be fruitful and multiply, and fill the earth and SUBDUE it; and have dominion over the fish of the sea and over the birds of the air and over every living thing that moves upon the earth."

Or, as Ronald Reagan's infamous Secretary of the Interior, James Watt, was reputed to say: "When the last tree is cut down, Christ will come back."

In this context, the unholy alliance between scorched-Earth capitalism and Evangelical Christianity makes some sense. Oh, I'm sure that the Evangelicals plan to continue enjoying their OWN creature comforts. But where will the next generation of faithful come from? They know -- just as you do -- that poor, desperate people are their best recruits. The Evangelicals will be ready with food relief, wasting no opportunity to say, "would you like a side of Jesus with that?" as they dish out their gruel.

I propose to you that at least some of the rabid Christians who deny man-made global warming today actually DO BELIEVE in it -- and WANT it to happen.
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DarianSentient
Omnium Bonum Est
11:19 PM on 11/12/2010
Indeed. To the Capitalist-minded Christian, trying to prevent global warming (or more specifically, trying to curtail any activities which contribute to global warming) is pretty frivolous seeing as how Armegeddon is gonna drop any day now.
02:56 AM on 11/16/2010
What SUV would Jesus drive?
12:38 PM on 10/07/2010
Atheists have been accused of being condescending and patronizing towards religious believers. This may be true in some cases, but in my case it is definitely true. I do feel contemptuously and superior to religious believers simply because their beliefs are ridiculous, potentially dangerous, intolerant and downright and outrageously silly. For there to have some many university professors believe in this nonsense, frightens me to say the least. If they can't think straight, we are in all trouble!
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DarianSentient
Omnium Bonum Est
11:35 PM on 11/12/2010
While I agree that the ability to NOT accept things on faith is a virtue, I've found it much, much easier to engage the religious in discussion (and thus have a shot at helping them to see the light) if I'm NOT aggressive with my atheism... though you should still be okay on internet venues. :P
09:20 PM on 10/03/2010
USA was founded by believers using the 3main religious books(Bible, Quran, BagedaVeda) It's misleading to attribute the success of this greatest Nation to new trends in belief and reject the role of the foundational principles and features, 'one Nation under God".

It's too early to judge the impact of increasing disbelief in western Nations. Again article is misleading, as scientific fact can't be determined rejecting Retro-analysis.

The current trend of western nations, with economic woes, disease etc is actually more dangerously negative than positive. The Humansystem is more complicated than just the few factors measured in the word "development" or economic security as used.

There're more categories than just "atheism" and "religion". Indeed atheism is further divided into so many conflicting branches. I'ts more fit to call popular atheists "believers in disbelief", which automatically makes 'atheism' religion.

The current trend actually has it that there are more especially female professionals in Middle East Nations than theWest. Iran for instance has a much higher % of all educated and 2Xs the number of Phd holding females than the US. So in truth development is tied to education, as we see great development, advancement and economic security there, but education is not tied to atheism.

Development and economic security in the Northern nations is simply due to exploitation.

In conclusion- A more realistic and defensible study will be the tying of western education with greed and exploitation, resulting in transient and highly unstable, un-ecological economic advancement. I suggest such research
12:23 PM on 10/05/2010
Please review the history of the term "one nation under god". Not only does the pledge of allegiance come more than a hundred years after the founding of the country, but the original pledge did not have "under god" in it.

Please also review the religious views of the founding fathers. If you look at the original draft of the Declaration of Independence, you will find the Jefferson explicitly left out not just god, but also the idea of a "creator". The phrase "endowed by their creator" was added in a later draft.

Thanks.
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Wittgenstein
Progressive Secular Humanist
01:48 AM on 09/30/2010
This is a brilliant article. It is nice to read a clear and simple account of religious belief and its future.
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01:00 AM on 09/30/2010
Why do so many discuss atheism at length or often refer to how much more they know about "religion" than the religious. Why should we spend effort in support of a non-issue. We want to live free from guilt and abuse of our intellectual freedom.

The point being that to live a godless life is preferrable. Logically if we progress along this line we are free to experience what we wish and can achieve without outdated moralistic restraints. Life is truly our own. Why would we not prefer to live without moral restraints and no "god".

Who can rebut this obvious truth? Please try if you are able.
05:37 PM on 09/30/2010
"Why would we not prefer to live without moral restraints"? Many do prefer to live without moral or ethical restraints. However to conclude from the nonexistence of any diety that moral (and ethical) restraints may be freely abandoned is simply to accept the fundamentalists' reasoning.

Buddhism can be said to be essentially atheistic, especially Theravadin Buddhism. Confucianism is also more-or-less atheistic. Both of these systems are deeply moral/ethical.
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10:31 PM on 09/30/2010
Why should there be any moral code if there is no God or after life?
04:09 PM on 10/01/2010
Lip77 - "...to live a godless life...live without moral restraints and no god".

You assume the "choice" is either your xian mythology or debauchary (a godless life?).

You conflate xian mythology, morality and ethics; you appear unable to differentiate these.

You apparently do not know the ACTUAL CONTENTS of the mythology you endorse as morality or you would recoil in horror at the acts the god of your bible commands you, OT or NT.

Lip77 - "Why should we spend effort in support of a non-issue."

The results of religious ignorance, discrimination, bigotry, and intolerance are NOT non-issues.
07:15 PM on 09/29/2010
I'm wondering if anyone can inform me as o the difference between modern atheism and earlier varieties.
Thanks
and
Be Well,
Bob Griffin
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Andres64
Religion is a sectually transmitted disease.
09:59 PM on 09/29/2010
Atheism is atheism is atheism. There is no such thing as "modern atheism" just as there is no such thing as "modern A-Bigfootism".
05:30 PM on 09/30/2010
Atheism was anciently advocated by the Atomists. It reappeared in Western Europe (mostly England and France) during the 17th century with slow growth through the 18th century and into the 19th century. The creation of Agnosticism in the late 19th century may (or may not) have had a somewhat negative effect in the growing popularity of atheism in England (and later in North America).
I believe Democritus was perhaps the best known of the Atomists. I am uncertain as to whether Hobbes was an atheist (he proposed a state church, but not from issues of faith). Hume probably was an atheist.
Bertrand Russell was perhaps the best known atheist of the early 20th century.

Be Well,
Bob Griffin
04:11 PM on 09/29/2010
This really isn't very complicated. If you are intelligent, educated and open minded and you analyze the evidence, it is very clear why man created God and Religion. There is zero evidence to support any form of a God. God was invented for a lot of good reasons. But as our society advances, people are realizing that religious beliefs, and a belief in God, are holding us back. By the way, intelligent, educated and open minded people tend to be more affluent.
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DarianSentient
Omnium Bonum Est
11:46 PM on 11/12/2010
Agreed: in times when education of even basic scientific and societal concepts was extremely rare, religion COULD do good, as "do it or God'll spank you" was sufficient to ensure societal stability (as compared to Mad Max highway gang-style morality). Nowadays, education is (relatively) plentiful and available, and as such rational moral philosophies provide a much more effective means of societal advancement, whereas religion is now more of a HINDRANCE to the forces of good due to ancient prejudices and outright misbeliefs about the nature of reality.

This may explain why those who stand to profit from religion's continued influence favor simplistic thought and pseudoscientific teachings in our education system... doing so helps to preserve (and sometimes even expand) their potential market share.
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10:19 AM on 09/29/2010
In sub-saharn Africa you'll also find many people who believe that raping children will cure AIDS and that stoning witches is a good way to spend a saturday night. In other words, an uneducated portion of the world that is prone to rumor mongering and silly ideas.

That does seem like an area I wouldnt expect to find many atheists.
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DarianSentient
Omnium Bonum Est
11:51 PM on 11/12/2010
One can look at many of the self-serving practices masquerading as "religion" (such as religiously sanctioned child rape and slavery) in Africa as indicators of the subtle profit motive in those religious beliefs (worldwide) that directly conflict with reality... yet continue to be defended by the religious.