Against All Odds
No doubt about it, Hillary Clinton's odds remain long in North Carolina. Just ask Erskine Bowles, who lost two Senate bids because of his connection to the Clinton administration, or ask Bill Clinton himself who lost the state twice. Or better yet, just look at the demographics. Clinton has yet to win a state where African Americans comprise more than 30 percent of the electorate and blacks in North Carolina comprise 38 percent of registered Democrats.
Pundits have pretty much written off Hillary's chances in North Carolina. Until yesterday, Hillary might well have been Don Quixote lying on the side of the road, ravaged by windmills and gypsies. But in the last 24 hours, her campaign has unexpectedly been handed an olive branch, an endorsement, and a chance to change the odds.
According to veteran strategist Doug Heye, Gov. Mike Easley's (D) endorsement of Clinton is huge. To be sure, Easley is no Ed Rendell or Ted Strickland-- he does not have their powerful state organization -- but he is still popular with rural, white, blue-collar Democrats who Clinton has been targeting. "It's still uphill. But Governor Easley would not endorse a candidate he thought was going to lose," Heye said.
Make no mistake however, if speculation is correct Easley won't be the only big North Carolina name endorsing Clinton. In an MSNBC interview yesterday, Elizabeth Edwards said she would not rule out making an endorsement before Tuesday's primary. Edwards has made it clear that she favors Clinton, and as North Carolina political analyst Gary Pearce put it: "it's going to take John Edwards hog tying her down" to stop his wife from coming out for Hillary.
The other development yesterday in North Carolina, of course, was Obama's denunciation of Rev. Jeremiah Wright. In the long term, the Wright controversy may hurt Obama's efforts to broaden his appeal among working class white voters. More immediately, Obama's response to the Wright controversy could alienate an unlikely set of his North Carolina supporters: the 38% of African-American primary voters who were expected to turn out in droves for him on Tuesday.
Obama's very public "divorce" from Wright may turn some black supporters away from him. For African Americans, Wright is more than the 48 hour self-inflicted-media spectacle he created. Many still view him as a passionate pastor who has worked hard to develop his church ministry in an underprivileged community.
More importantly, he was Obama's family. Prior to yesterday, Obama said he would not disown Wright or his church, which he said "embodies the black community in its entirety." In black churches the relationship between pastor and parishioner is a sacred one and denouncing Wright could produce a backlash against Obama -- a Sister Souljah moment of sorts.
Ace Smith, Clinton's North Carolina state director, says a win in the state would be "the upset of the century." Even cutting into Obama's double-digit lead in the Tar Heel State is no small order. But yesterday the prospect of an against-all-odds victory by the underdog entered the realm of political possibility.
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You're wrong on at least one part of your analysis. African Americans understand why Obama chose not to cast his pastor out in March and we understand why he he moved further in denouncing him this week. When Reverend Wright chose to give a press conference at the National Press Club this week, resurrecting this controversy and adding fuel to those who were using his words against Obama, he changed the nature of their relationship. Wright's action was not that of a man concerned with Obama's well-being (acting as a member of the family, which is how Obama had characterized Wright in his March speech) but rather someone who knowingly took action that would harm the candidate passionately backed by the vast majority of African Americans. And while African Americans may be divided about the words that Wright spoke, we deplore his timing. Rather than any backlash against Obama, what you are likely to see in North Carolina is record turnout among African Americans for Obama in a show of suport for him during this critical time in his efforts to secure the nomination.
PS In response to Ms. Mcalvanah- Elizabeth Edwards has denied endorsing anyone
http://www
....you might want to get your facts straight
The Insider Advantage poll has it Clinton 44, Obama 42, Undecided 14. They had her +10 in Penn the day before the primary and nearly nailed it. Factor in the so-called Bradley Effect and Undecided voters who trend towards Clinton, and it does look like she has a shot.
Yeah! a shot of Crown Royal! You guys are too funny. We the people will not let her steal the nomination and if for some reason she does you can kiss goodbye to the Democratic Party.
Try to remember that your "We the people" constitutes roughly half of the electorate. If she wins, she wins. That's not stealing. So you would just have to live with it Obamamamamamao.
And if the democratic party decides it wants to pander to blacks and college kids, they can kiss the rest of us goodbye.
This AM we are hearing about Clinton super delegates "switching" from Clinton to Obama. Good luck with your theory that everything is coming up roses for Clinton in North Carolina.
How sad. Maybe they like the idea of obliterating sovereign nations. Maybe they like the idea of a pathological liar. Maybe they like the idea of NAFTA. Maybe they like the idea of war in Iraq with close to a million dead. Maybe they like to shoot ducks in Bosnia. I find it pathetic that this candidate who has done so little, and is blatantly dishonest is still in the race.
None of this changes who Hillary is. Woman, yes. OK. Self centered, self serving, no loyalty to any party but a party of one (Lieberman Lite), but possessor of "testicular fortitude". Certainly. But she is one who can offer nothing more than that crazy old McCain. Not on your life.
She offers 8 more years of the Clinton/Bush dynastic order. History will then mark this period of Reagen, Bushes, and Clintons as the undoing of the US imperial reign over th world. Time for a woman president. Watch Governor Sibelius, if HRC doesn't take nomination. How bout them Scandinavians. Norway's already had a couple of lady PM's.
I personally will never vote again for a Clinton. Gravel will be among the ballot choices. The man is definitely a straight shooter.
Gravel in 2008.
Something tells me that the African-Americans who make up 38% of NC's primary electorate will be a hell of a lot more pissed off at Hillary's racist tactics than they will be at Obama for denouncing his former pastor. Every time she tries to bring up Louis Farrakhan, AA voters know what she's up to. It's the old racist guilt-by-a
Besides the Clintons have now written off black voters. Since the SC primary, both Bill and Hill have displayed their contempt for the very people who put them in office in the first place. Hillary's trying to use race to drive some white voters away from Obama. Such tactics should be unconscionable for a Democrat, but then, Hillary has long since ceased to be a member of this party in anything but name.
Hillary's racist tactics
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No such thing.
Big deal! Any idiot who still calls people "pansys" is obviously out of touch.
This is further demonstrated by his endorsement of Clinton.
HELLOOO? She can win ALL the remaining contests by significant margins & still arrive in Denver behind Obama
All she is doing is destroying the party & enabling a McCain victory in November.
I am voting for President not Preacher
She can win ALL the remaining contests by significant margins & still arrive in Denver behind Obama
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And Obama will arrive WITHOUT ENOUGH DELEGATES TO WIN.
If the score of the basketball game is 98-94 when the buzzer goes of, guess who wins? It's not about who reaches 100 first.
Farewell Roe v Wade.
If Hillary gets the nomination, kiss your precious abortion rights goodbye because she CANNOT win the general election. She is too despised by too much of the population. She may destroy Barack Obama's chances, but she will lose the election. She cannot attract independent and crossover voters as Obama has shown he can. Not only that, Clinton's nomination will energize the conservative base to get-out-the-vote in record numbers, cutting into any possible gains the Dems might make in the House and Senate. The next president will probably appoint between 3 and 5 Supreme Court justices. If Hillary gets the nomination, the next president will be John McCain.
"Feminists" who support Hillary simply for the fact that she is a woman AND FOR NO OTHER REASON refuse to recognize the fact that SHE CANNOT WIN THE GENERAL ELECTION. Her nomination would set back women's rights back 40 years.
Hey stop, what you need to realize is that it is already over. McCain will be the next president, no matter which candidate wins the nom. DISAFFECTED VOTERS on each side.
after supporting gender equality all of my life i am beginning to loathe militant feminism as much as i loathe neo-conservatism. it is becoming disappointingly obvious they have far too much in common.
I wouldn't say it's so much militant feminism we're witnessing here...(al
Clinton had the governor onside in South Carolina, too. Guess how much difference it made.
The same Easley who used homophobic rhetoric while Hillary was on stage next to him? Yeah, that's a great endorsement. So great that she should denounce and reject him, yet she won't because it might help her electoral prospects.
Nice try.
When you back a candidate who's run a bad campaign, has been outperformed by an upstart, and has changed the goals and the goal posts as many times as Hillary has, I guess you too start to see things through the prism of an altered reality. Good luck with that.
Wishful thinking. Clinton has also lost states with less than 30% African American population, like Iowa, No. Dakota, Idaho, Alaska, Colorado, Kansas, Minnesota, Wisconsin.
Long odds? Maybe in No. Carolina, but nationally, the contest is over. Anyone with less than the ego she and Bill have would long ago have dropped out. She cannot win the elected delegate count, nor can she win the popular vote count, either, unless one uses her fuzzy math and count two states who were disqualified. Isn't it funny, she initially agreed to the rules, thinking she would not need either state, but when Obama beat her in 11 straight primaries, her attitude changes.
I would like someday to see a woman sit in the Oval Office, but this one doesn't deserve it. The writer is overwhelmed by wishful thinking. Hillary is entitled to nothing.
She cannot win the elected delegate count,
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Neither can Obama.
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