Projecting an Obama Victory

Projection is a psychological hazard of politics. What's "obvious" to some doesn't occur to others. So, these days, it's hardly reassuring when some progressives roll their eyes at the latest McCain-Palin maneuver and express confidence that few voters will be swayed by the latest slimy attacks on Barack Obama.

The poll numbers so far this month, combined with ample media hype, have fostered the belief that the current economic crisis is close to dooming the McCain campaign. But any crystal ball that offers assurance of an Obama victory is a piece of junk.

Twenty years ago, presidential nominee Michael Dukakis emerged from the Democratic National Convention with a 17-point lead in a Gallup Poll. One of the main reasons that the lead disappeared was a scurrilous TV ad, linking Gov. Dukakis to a prisoner who committed a rape during a weekend furlough. The commercial included an ominous photo of the African-American convict, Willie Horton.

Now, a "Willie Ayers" ad is getting plenty of media attention, and Sarah Palin is accusing Obama of "palling around with terrorists." The McCain campaign is eager to implement desperate measures for its desperate times -- making preposterous claims to link Obama with terrorism -- scraping toward the bottom of the barrel and heaving larger quantities of mud.

Any confidence that such tactics will have scant effect on the electorate is misplaced.

There's also the matter of race -- and, more to the point, racism. "Many older Democrats quietly admit they will not vote for Mr. Obama because they fear he would put too many blacks in power, or be hamstrung in office by racial opposition," the New York Times reported from Florida on Oct. 4.

This fall, no one knows exactly how much we'll see of the "Bradley effect" -- named after the defeat of the black mayor of Los Angeles, Tom Bradley, who received conspicuously fewer votes from whites than election-eve polling had predicted when he ran for governor in 1982.

Polls involving a black nominee "have tended to undersell the level to which race negatively impacts voting -- particularly among whites," political reporter Chris Cillizza wrote on washingtonpost.com four months ago. "That is, a black candidate tends to underperform his or her polls on Election Day, as some voters who may have told a pollster they would support an African-American candidate ultimately decide against doing so."

The Bradley effect has a long history, Cillizza noted. "In other races involving a black candidate -- most notably Charlotte Mayor Harvey Gantt's candidacies against Sen. Jesse Helms in 1990 and 1996 as well as L. Douglas Wilder's victorious run for the Virginia governor's mansion in 1989 -- the Bradley effect came into play."

Some political analysts say that the Bradley effect has diminished and will have little or no impact on Obama. Maybe they're right. But I doubt it.

Along with throwing mud and benefitting from racism, McCain stands to gain from the fact that the national Republican Party now has a lot more money in the bank than the Democratic Party does. And in many states, a wide range of anti-democratic measures -- including purges of voter rolls and very unreasonable requirements for voter ID on Election Day -- will work to the benefit of the McCain-Palin ticket.

Overall, the polls showing Obama with a sizeable lead should be taken with a box of salt. The count on election night could be close. In the meantime, McCain can only benefit when progressives assume he'll lose.

Such rosy assumptions are dangerous. They're apt to result in overconfidence, reducing volunteer energy and voter turnout for Obama.

Assume that the economic crisis has doomed the McCain campaign? He hopes you will.

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Norman Solomon was an elected Obama delegate to the Democratic National Convention.

Comments

[castlerider]

You're so right, Obama needs to continue to fight like he's 15 points behind, and not let up, not for a second. To the campaign's credit, it appears like they're doing just that, and doing well with it. But there truly is a great danger of compacency and overconfidence, because of such high and desperate emotions and feelings.
However, the McCain camp is really the ones who are acting very careless, desperate and dangerously, because Americans really won't and don't appreciate that there is such attempted distraction on the part of McCain's camp.
In just the same manner that Obama absolutely destroyed McCain's attempted distraction at making him a celebrity with the Paris Hilton ads, he will again destroy these latest cowardly McCain attacks, next time he's talking to the nation on National TV.

Like many other Americans who know who they want for their next POTUS, ...- I can't wait.

[PulSamsara]

-----------------------
Why would America REWARD complete Republican failure ?

We wont.

[crosswaysnet]

What does Mr. Solomon mean by "... very unreasonable requirement for voter ID on Election Day..." Sounds like: "... very unreasonable to require any voter to prove who they are - and have legally qualified to vote - before voting."

Am I just not grasping the subtlety here?

I take pride in producing my ID (voter card included) as the attendant crosses off my name. In this I know I earned the right to cast my vote - by pledging allegiance to only the American flag; by staying out of prison; by paying taxes; by sitting on juries periodically.

Surely he wouldn't demean my accomplishment, meager as it is, by advocating that the polls be opened to any human being, regardless of citizenship, lawful conduct, or civil responsibility. I don't want the world deciding my leaders for me - I want me deciding my leaders. And there ain't a twinge of xenophobia or racism in that sentiment. I'm the quintessential American mutt - including a generous sampling of Native American. My ancestors tilled the soil in a dozen states. They fought each other in the Civil War. They succumbed to the onslaught of White invasion. My genes register the many conflicts and hypocrisies of our national history. My heritage is dear to me.

By blood, I'm an American.

By citizenship, I'm an American.

By choice, I'm an American.

By law, I'm an American.

It comforts me when I know that, by and large, it is Americans voting with me on

[PioneerKing]

Mr. Solomon:

You are very correct -- it is premature for folks to become confortable witht he thought of Sen. Obama winning in Nov.

there is still plenty of work to be done. Floks have to make sure they get out to vote and get their friends and family memebers out to vote.

Poll watchers will be needed to ensure that there is not voter intimidation and that every ballot is counted.

There are those pesky Diebold machines being used in more thant 65% of our polling places.

Republicans will throw out all types of fear tactics to scare Americans -- probably a terrorist attack or some fake tape of Bin Laden or another jhiadist talking about an attack on the US.

There will be the release of some sort of terror alert by the republicans runnning Homeland Security. the republicans will go all out on their fear campaign.

Sarah Palin telegraphed as much when she used her opening statement at the debate to say the wards fear about eleven times and called Sen. Obama dangerous a number of times.

The republicans have been telegraphing this strategy all year.

[USA1776]

For sake of argument, let's say that the race is over and Obama wins. Keep fighting ... make it hurt the Republicans, make them lose Congressional seats, dethrone Rovian style politics and more importantly, ruin Sarah Palin's political career at the national level. Oh, let's just make it her career in general.

[proudem]

Let's remember that Obama is only ahead by about 6%. This means that at least 43% (according to recent published polls in general) are voting for McCain. FORTY-THREE PERCENT of the voting population believes that McCain is a better candidate for POTUS. Whether it is because of ideology, ignorance, racism, partisanship or just plain stupidity, 43% (to 48%) with approximately 8% undecided (what exactly are they waiting for) believe in McCain. Many identify with Palin (I just don't get that either) but either way...we are not out of the soup yet.
I am glad to see Obama hitting back hard. The truth is that negative campaigning works. We have had 8 years of Rovian style politics and if we haven't learned a thing or two, then shame on us. And to all who have worked so hard on this campaign...keep it up. We may see a victory yet if we do not become complacent.

[ProudLiberalDan]

There is still a month away and that is a lifetime in politics. I still think the neocons might have an October suprise with Iran coming as one last ditch effort to rescue McCain.

While the polling news is good, there is still a lot of work to be done to turn those polls into cast and counted votes.

Early voting has already begun in many places as well as voting-by-mail or absentee method.

Please use these methods if you can. It will free you up to help others get to the polls on election day, ensures you have already cast your vote if a personal emergency comes up, and a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

[katocat]

Nobody is slowing down or getting complacent... the enviroment is much different this time around and we are not taking any chances regardless of the polls.

Obama will win because he is the best presidential material and the more Americans take a look, the more they like.

[rjmiller]

The "Bill Ayers" attack is dried up and empty. Why? Because we've been drinking from that shallow well for nearly a year. I doubt there is anyone seeing the ad now that hasn't heard about it already.

[JR49]

When statement about race is over comes out of Karl Rove & company then it is dangerous thing. They would never ever said something like that without following side effects...so Democrats stay focused and race is over when it is over and all votes are counted.

[allonfla]

One more thing..........I'm not worried about those articles that say the race is over, because the fact that McCain will be ramping up his attacks only means that Obama's supporters will come to his defense even more. Remember how we did during the primaries? More attacks on Obama, more money for Obama, more voter turnout for Obama. That's the way I look at it.

[allonfla]

The Bradley Effect makes no darn sense. Why would you lie about who you are supporting, OVER THE PHONE? Why would you care what some anonymous pollster thinks of you? Who are you supporting? McCain Why? He has more experience. End of discussion. No need to lie about who you are supporting. It would make sense if they lied about WHY they are NOT supporting Obama! I know there have been papers and research, blah, blah, but it just doesn't make sense especially now when most voters have made up their minds.

[Grunty1]

I think the Bradley Effect of racism is simply a cover for the Diebold Effect of fraud.

[bill76]

This post is required reading, IMO. I cringe everytime I read that the "race is over" and that Obama 's lead cannot be overcome. We need to fight like tooth and nails right up until election day. Now's not the time to get complacent.

[ConEd]

"Who is that masked man?"

[joanndarc]

The Bradley effect is very real...

[SimonNZ]

A good and timely post. This is no time for Democrats and their supporters to get overconfident or complacent. Let's stay focused and alert, and save the champagne till after November 5.