McCain's Base Problem
John McCain has been the nominee of his party for over a month now. He has no active opposition, no figure on his side of the aisle contesting him for leadership of the Republican party and the conservative movement.
And yet, Republicans are still voting against him. In Indiana McCain pulled in 77% of the vote, and he made an even worse showing with 73% in North Carolina. Even more troubling for McCain is that Huckabee is the leading protest vote. That's the religious right vote, the anti-choice crowd and the bedrock of President Bush's re-election victory.
In 2004 the GOP got the vote out by riling up the religious right and wooing the moderate middle. Post-Katrina and post-Iraq they have lost the middle. The press image of McCain as a maverick helps them with the middle, but they've still lost it. The religious right is mostly disgusted with the GOP - they haven't kept up their end of the bargain. The religious right lined up behind the GOP to ban abortion, negate gay rights, and violate the separation of church and state. In exchange for that, the religious right was okay with allowing the business class to take their pound of flesh. But the GOP had the House, Senate, and White House and while they did enough at the edges of those issues they did not remake America into a theocracy.
John McCain does not inspire these people. Ambivalent at best about his faith, he is not the "God warrior" Bush pretends to be. He is very much the Bob Dole candidate. McCain is the "his turn" guy and in Obama he is going up against the first Democratic candidate in a long while who has the base of voters who are really for their guy.
The religious right is not going to move Democratic, but like in 2006 they are probably going to stay home while the Democratic base is poised to make the turnout in 2004 seem like training camp. The religious right's relationship with the GOP isn't just yet a divorce, but Mommy and Daddy are for sure on a break.
(More coverage at OliverWillis.com)
Follow Oliver Willis on Twitter: www.twitter.com/owillis
Loading comments…
Want to reply to a comment? Hint: Click "Reply" at the bottom of the comment; after being approved your comment will appear directly underneath the comment you replied to
The Obama campaign has thrown aside moderates, seniors, many women, the Latino vote, the Catholic vote, and the middle and working class vote. There's been a nonstop stream of insults and condescending remarks, coming from Senator Obama himself, and being amplified by his staff, and his ever-angry and smug supporters.
This is not the way to win in November. If McCain makes a smart, appealing, centrist VP pick, it'll be smooth sailing for him.
Do you even follow the news?
Obama has continued to grow support among women ( 39% Indiana's women voted for him, which is continuing an increase ) and he got the Catholic vote there, too.
Just because one group may favor one Democratic candidate over another, doesn't mean that same group would prefer McCain to their Democratic opponent. Most people want a new direction for this country. I think, McCain is a tough sell for that position.
I suggest you listen to one of his speeches some time. They are uplifting, not insulting, and often very magnanimous to all of his opponents.
What are you talking about? Examples, please! If anything it is HIllary and her supporter who are constantly marginalizing and insulting educated/progressive whites and AA's. Get a grip.
Any place these opinions exist except the right-wing noise machine? Any concrete examples, like video? Didn't think so.
Please, shep, provide proof and /or examples of "insults, "condescending remarks", "coming from "Senator Obama himself". I challenge you. You won't respond because you don't have any. Republicans like innuendoes and falsehoods to win, but that era is coming to an end.
Proof? 1 out of every 1000 posts on this website has any proof.
Shep go back to your republican troll site... Show us some proof of Obama throwing aside, moderates, seniors, any women, and or a Latino. Please I challenge you.. Oh wait you can't because he never did anything you claim. The man hasen't even insulted Clinton, and you go on with your mindless clintonista drivel wake up dude.... Hillary lost, and not because Obama insulted her.
I believe there is a difference between the Religious Right LEADERSHIP and the Religious Right VOTER which is not being taken into consideration. There is strong movement within these voter circles which corresponds with many traditionally Democratic issues such as poverty and the environment.
The leadership is both aging and to a large extent discredited because the voting segment followed it into supporting Bush. Besides NOT getting what they were promised, they also got a war in which they are disportionatly participating, recession and unemployment.
Believe it or not, a lot of these people aren't listening very hard to the leaders who sold them out for the publicity to peddle their books and meaningless White House access. They may have been fooled badly before, but once burned twice wary. There is a large segment of these voters up for grabs if Clinton is not the Democratic candidate. They are patriotic people who like to vote and they also know enough about preachers and churches to discount the character assassination tying Wright to Obama like they were joined at the hip.
Don't count on it. Once the pictures of babies torn to pieces in Mom's uterus come out, the very kind of voter you talk about flips back into single issue hate mode. The only chance lies in those in the middle who can see the world in colors and not just black and white.
Aren't these the same people who happily attended conservative megachurches where American fighter jets were shown streaking across massive video screens at the start of the war? Aren't they the same people who ran out and voted Republican over gay marriage (horrors!) four years ago clinching Ohio for Bush and thereby handing him a second term? Excuses for these intolerant and fundamentally stupid people don't fly. For the good of the country let's pray that the Christofascist movement is finally over. Perhaps we have W to thank for something after all.
It appears to me, after reading your post, that you are the intolerant one. I will not say that you are fundamentally stupid, as I do not know, and I suspect that you are not stupid, fundamentally or otherwise.
Like it or not, this country is inhabited by Christians, as a majority.
The lack of McCain support shows a deeper issue. The people are beginning to see through the facade of the two party system not providing a worthwhile candidate. How many decades have we faced pick least worst? Or vote for candidate A to stop candidate B, not because A is any good, but at least he is not as bad as B.
Stay home or vote 3rd party. Reject the two contrived nonchoices of the Republicrats
YOU ARE ABSOLUTELY CORRECT.
If Hillary were the nominee, I think you would see a lot of disgruntled Republicans stay home.
With Obama in there, I think the Republican base will be energized. It's exactly the opposite of where most pundits thought we would be 6 months ago.
Clinton was always the one that was unpalatable to Republicans, and Obama was the harmless alternative. Now that has completely flipped, as Obama has become the biggest threat to Republicans.
He's the most liberal of all the remaining candidates. He's clueless about foreign policy. He can't pay for all his spending, which means bigger deficits. He's far more willing to hike taxes than Clinton. And then of course you have the whole Wright fiasco dragging on him and tarnishing his patriotism. You have his flip-flopping on public financing showing that he's just the same kind of "good 'ol boy" politician as all the rest.
If you're going to attack Obama, you might wish to be aware of some things:
1) McCain is the author of much public financing reform. Unlike Obama, McCain actually ~accepted~ it in order to continue his campaigning last year. Since acquiring GOP funding, he has tried to reneg on the deal.
2) Rev Wright is only of interest to FoxNews or those who cannot find bad things about Obama himself. ( Most understand that Wright is not running for office and Obama's candidacy reflects an image completely opposite. )
3) Foreign policy? McCain routinely confuses one ethnic group with another. Obama has lived abroad, which tends to open your eyes to possibilities - not closes them. You do not have to nuke people to get your point across.
4) Taxes? Well, here's the deal. Health care is expensive. And we are engaged in two wars during an economic recession. How would you pay for these?
a) Invest more and hope for the best. If it fails, you've dug yourself a deeper hole.
b) Print more money. This creates inflation and all you end up with is more currency in circulation.
c) Ignore it. Maybe it'll go away. ( Or rather, just leave it for the next office holder to deal with. This is apparently the Bush Administration's view. )
d) Raise taxes.
There is one other thing to remember: McCain's campaign is no Clinton War Machine. If Obama can destroy her Inevitable Candidacy --- McCain doesn't stand a chance.
"Taxes? Well, here's the deal. Health care is expensive. And we are engaged in two wars during an economic recession. How would you pay for these?"
We can't, universal health care is a fantasy that I can guarentee is not in place by the end of Obama's first (and last) term.
4) Taxes? Well, here's the deal. Health care is expensive. And we are engaged in two wars during an economic recession. How would you pay for these?
a) Invest more and hope for the best. If it fails, you've dug yourself a deeper hole.
b) Print more money. This creates inflation and all you end up with is more currency in circulation.
c) Ignore it. Maybe it'll go away. ( Or rather, just leave it for the next office holder to deal with. This is apparently the Bush Administration's view. )
d) Raise taxes.
I assume that your choice in the above is to raise taxes. I disagree. Raising taxes in the long run diminishes the take for the government. Reducing taxes raised income to the government. Was true when Kennedy did it, when Reagan did it, and even when Bush did it.
Secondly, our economy is not in recession, by the standard definition. Inflation is a different matter. Prices of food and transportation will ensure that inflation is here. A situation basically created by the very government you look to to solve your problems.
Do you not recall Whitewater, Ken Star, Monica "I did not have sexual relations with that women" Lewinski? And Reps are going to stay home if Hillary is the nominee???
Did you hear what Newt Gingrich had to say to Rep leaders today?
Liberal? Everyone who knows Obama's history knows he is the child of a single mother who's father abandoned him at an early age. I don't care what school he went to. He and his wife had student loans.
Obama clueless on foreign policy? At least he has the good sense to at least want to hear what the other side has to say. Former Senator Sam Nunn has officially endorsed Obama. He and Senator Joe Biden are resources for any Dem candidate. Do you think Obama is going to go to the Whitehouse and run the world alone???
If all you have is Wright, you need to sit down and do some soul searching about what will be rehashed if the Clinton's are back in the spotlight.
The fact that a man like Senator Obama would subject himself to this process, knowing that he was going to get his entire life picked apart, does not show me a tarnish on his patriotism. But it does show me a serious flaw in yours.
It is McCain that has flip flopped on campaign finance reform.
Are you for this country or just you're candidate? Whoever that is.
Latest numbers, based on primary polls, show that there are about 1,000,000 Ron Paul supporters. A number of states, such as Pennsylvania (in which 128,000 votes were cast for Paul in their primary, the voter had to be a registered Republican. As to the G.O.P., when it did not ignore Paul, it set itself against him. This will be remembered. Paul's supporters will either write in for him or vote for whomever he recommends. McCain (who comes pre-packaged with "On to Iran" Lieberman), will be treated by the Paul supporters in the same way the G.O.P. treated Ron Paul -- with contempt.
The religious right came out to vote in the primary when the candidate had already been chosen, so why won't they turn out for the general election. They're not going to vote for the democrat to any significant degree so will vote for McCain, as the lesser of two evils. Especially with Huckabee stumping for him.
To suggest that the votes that Huckabee received in the IN and NC PRIMARIES is in any way indicative of how the votes will go in the general election is a big mistake. When the nominee has already been determined there is no risk what-so-ever in lodging a primary protest vote.
My guess is that the hard right, including the so called Christian right will coalesce behind McCain, just as democrats will coalesce behind the eventual nominee.
So they are going to vote for McCain which is facing Alzheimer disease. Come on the man can't tell you where he is half the time.
Very good.
I'm sorry, but as much as the religious right dislikes McCain, they'll still vote for him if that's what it takes to ensure a Democrat doesn't make it into The White House. Here's why. The next President will most likely get to nominate a Supreme Court justice. Right now, the court is loaded with pro-life conservatives. McCain will suck up to the right wing base and appoint another pro-life justice increasing the odds that Roe v. Wade will be overturned. A Democratic president appointing a pro-choice judge would be a huge setback. Much like Hillary who moved to the center in order to run for President, McCain will move further to the right. The religious right doesn't care if he's a true believer. They just want him to do their bidding. I think these people voting for Huckabee are sending a message to McCain. Pick a running mate who's a true religious conservative. McCain will probably be too old to run for a second term, putting Vice President Huckabee in line to succeed him. And that would be just fine with the religious right.
"increasing the odds that Roe v. Wade will be overturned"
It will never be overturned, stop trying to make this an issue.
you do realize mccain gets more of his base then obama by ten-fold right? i mean obama has about 51% of democrats right now, with historic weaknesses among whites and hispanics. maybe you should take the blinders off and realize you just nominated a guy who loses hispanics by 40 % to a republican. but dont worry, im sure he can make it up with college kids ahahahahahhaa
You think if Obama was running unopposed as the Dem candidate and hadn't had any real opposition since February that he wouldn't be looking at similar numbers? McCain hasn't even begun to see what's in store for his hypocrite anus.
Both Dems have divided the base about in half. Both HIllary and Obama would have the same problem in the fall, just with opposite halves of the party. Or is that too complex for you to grasp? Or is it that, as HIllbots believe, only their half (i.e., uneducated white & Latino) of the party counts? This attitude is why blacks & progressives are furious--we are tired of being marginalized and denigrated.
One more thing: please tell me how ANY democrat can win without substantial black support. The numbers don't add up, "my friend".
Does it matter?
Obama could have a kid locked in his basement for 20 years like the guy in Austria and he would still get 80% of the black vote.
hopelessobama, by your math McCain gets 510% of his base, shit, you must have millions of dead people on the rolls then.
None of this is Senator McCains worst problem. His worst problem is that he either never cared to LEARN the basics about the problems of the nation at large (economics, international community, security threats) or that he is suffering from a medical condition of his age like dementia or Alzheimer's. I believe that enough Republican voters had enough proof of what happens when an intellectually unsuitable man is in the White House. We don't need a third term to prove it to be disastrous.
Now that The Democrats have throw moderates out of the Party McCain can make a big push to the center.
Obama has room for everyone. How have Democrats thrown moderates out of the party?
Not all the moderates. Just the bitter ones clinging to their religion and guns.
axelrod said it himself 'we dont need working class whites, they vote republican anyway'. the blue collar whites have been the cornerstone of the democrat party since roosevelt. obama is the national ned lamont, silly libs.
Begala hit it on the nose. "The Democratic party can not win with just AA's and eggheads."
and they can't win with just the uneducated and latinos either. whats your point?
You must be logged in to comment. Log in or connect with
