The "Other" Base

As is to be expected, the mainstream media is falling all over themselves to congratulate Sarah Palin on her speech and to get first in line for the next barbecue at the McCain compound(s). The consensus -- and we know just how wrong the consensus usually is -- is that Palin's speech has consolidated and galvanized the conservative base. The first problem with this is that the conservative base has been mostly galvanized already. They are already spooked to the point of wetting their pants over the made up fantasy of the secret Muslim black man and his black militant wife turning the White House into a flophouse for the Black Panther Party. They are already there. What the pick did for McCain is get the last dregs of a dying voting bloc lined up for him.

The problem is the Palin pick and the traditional Republican nonsense she delivered has the side effect of rousting another base: Democrats. The Palin pick was originally sold as an appeal to Hillary Clinton voters -- but what Clinton voter with an ounce of sense could possibly pull the lever for a ticket so proud of its knuckle dragging like McCain/Palin? Those already in the Obama camp and responsible for the Grand Canyon sized gulf in enthusiasm between the two candidates are just going to get fired up by Palin's speech and the other promises of another Bush term being offered in the sparsely occupied Xcel arena (seriously, why can't they get people to fill up all the seats in such a small venue?).

The other group of people likely to be unintentionally fired up by McCain and Palin are moderate, swing voters. The biggest reason Republicans lost the House and Senate was buyers remorse from those swing voters who voted for Bush in 2004, not realizing that the GOP's promise of protection and sanity were washed away in Katrina and the rush to privatize social security. The GOP is now tuned up for a replay of the 2004 strategy, but all they have left of that coalition is their white conservative male base. The minorities are all gone. The women have left them. Moderates have moved on. Elections in America are not won by James Dobson and Pat Robertson acting alone, no matter how they try to sell that to you.

In large part America is tired of fire breathing partisanship. They have seen the 50+1 percent presidency of Bush devolve into a 24% presidency. People, especially those in the middle, realize that a president that every day is focused on "winning" the base turns out to be a loser with people in the middle and in the other party. It is not a way to govern a nation -- and it stymies the effectiveness of the presidency. People like Reagan and Clinton had presidencies that worked for better or worse because they hadn't written off half of the country on inauguration day.

For those who needed reminding, the Republican convention has done the job. Mission accomplished.

More coverage at OliverWillis.com

Read more analysis from HuffPost bloggers on John McCain's running mate, Sarah Palin

Comments

[squarebird]

I would love it if Obama was a Muslim, because that would mean, one, that he could offer a salve to the large portion of the world that misunderstands the "heathen" West. Two, it would mean he would be anti-socialist and anti-communist. Unfortunately he is very much not a Muslim.

[jerry6stl]

The poll results this weekend suggest that Palin was an excellent choice for the Republicans. McCain is ahead of us by 4 points for the first time. Obama will regret not selecting Hillary.

Jerry G.

[DrYRHead]

"Elections in America are not won by James Dobson and Pat Robertson acting alone, no matter how they try to sell that to you. "

The interesting thing about this comment is that both of these guys were bad mouthing McCain not too long ago. Do they think that the voters have that short of memories?

[Star2000dancer]

THIS "NEW" GOP should be eliminated completelt t. It's only the elite & the war profiteers, the oil men, & the poor soldiers who still believe they're figting wars that are reallyoccupations to sieze that country's assets. We should only fight in defense of our country. Not to rob another nation.
There's had been no 911 if Gore had rightfully been given his Presidency. However, Americans have even had their educations taken away from them so the GOP cold feed them & the MSM all the propaganda they wanted to.

We must stick together, we must take our country back. For the people, by the people , and of the people!!! Palin is in it for the oil & the publicity. She's got more skeltons than a graveyard

[DrYRHead]

So will Sarah be bringing a freshly shot polar bear to gutted and clean, by herself, for the McCain Bar-B-Q? Polar bear stake, anyone?

[RepublicanForObama]

The Republican Resentment Strategy - Explains the Fire Breathing Partisanship
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/05/opinion/05krugman.html
Republican for Obama/Biden

[christabor]

You are the people who thought Mondale and Dukaka would win. How can you possibly think you know anything about what the rest of the country thinks. Now Obama. Liberalism must be a degenerative disease. Instead of things getting better they get worse.

[ShadowfaxinUT]

That article IMHO is spot on, McPalin is the absolute wrong ticket for McCain to suddenly start calling himself the agent of change.

[onethumbup]

Republicans have squandered the opportunity given to them by the American people, and their arrogance and greed has blinded them. Here's to Barack Obama for giving working Americans hope that they can have their country back.

[mary65761]

I don not believe Mrs. Piland has been fully vetted, or if she was then someone sure missed some things about her. They need to read the Alaska daily new's paper. She hired lobbest to get money from the United State,money waisted. she was for the bridge to no where, then aftrr getting the money used it for something else . She got money for railroad project 15 million to one town where her lawyor lives , then goes against him when didn't get her way over something. 900,000 for sewer project for her town, which is smaller than the villiage I live in., 500,000 for yourth shelter and other things she also belonged in the past to a group that was trying to suceed from the United States. There is more, so think McCain needs to find someone else real quick to be his VP. When all of this gets out she will be real bad for him. It took her 6 colleges before she graduated but no one called and asked the schools how she did there.At least that is what the schools said. . The republicans have lost my vote that is for sure, she is bad new's, may be aBLE TO TALK REAL GOOD AND PUT HER CHILDREN OUT IN FRONT OF THE WORLD, BUT i SURE WOULDN'T HAVE PUT MY 17 YEAR OLD DAUGHTER OUT FOR THE WORLD TO SEE AND TALK ABOUT AND THE POOR GRANDCHILD THAT IS COMING, Sorry wrong choice.

[ShadowfaxinUT]

She was, of course, not fully vetted, or vetted at all for that matter. She will be vetted in the worst possible way for the GOP campaign - by the press during the campaign process. When McGovern had to dump Tom Eagleton in '72, he had alomst 4 months to recover, and still lost. McCain has less than two months to sell this choice to the voters, and she's already fading.

[gisellestwocents]

So are these "journalists" going to continue being enamored of Palin after they digest the fact that she's not up to taking their questions? That is really kind of ridiculous, imo. JM should be ashamed of himself and embarrassed...

SP's nomination is really kind of an insult to the process and to U.S. women in general. She makes women look bad, real bad. And that is not a sexist statement? Because right here and now, I acknowledge that we here in the USA actually do have countless educated, informed and experienced women who can, in fact, take questions and we saw one of them during the Democratic primary.

I mean, as a woman, I would like the first woman in the oval office to at least be able to project to the world that she's up to the task.

[bazarov]

Fired up is right. The minute I heard the disingenuous and mocking speeches emanating from the RNC, I went online and donated money to fight this ridiculous campaign. Yeah, the rich Republicans who want to cut taxes for their corporate buddies making millions, but not for working Americans is the party of the people. And the party of change. Who ruined this country for the last 8 years? Own your failure McCain!

The choice of a right wing fundamentalist has driven me to blog and donate and write letters to the editor, write to the McCain camp, assail my coworkers and family, and volunteer even more for the Obama campaign. When will the MSM pick this up?

[proveit2me]

Very good piece. A further indication is the 10 Million bucks The dems raised in one day immediately following Palin's speech. i think it's funny how the right wing characterizes this as the left being "scared" by Mayor/McCheese. As if motivation through fear wasn't the very nature of the entire Republican platform. People are sighting the closeness of the poll number, but the polls don't reflect the massive influx of newly registered Democratic voters, nor the unprecedented numbers of younger voters these polls always seem to miss or dismiss.

[student21218]

Don't forget that no matter how energized the public is about voting in this election; we better pay attention to the equipment that we're using to vote with. I've heard numerous reports (not MSM) about unrsolved problems with the machines. I remember how self assured Bush was in 2004 about winning the election. Pay attention folks!!!!!!!!

[RepublicanForObama]

Obama/Biden wins popular vote.
McCain/Palin awarded White House by Nations Supreme Court.
I DO NOT TRUST THE MACHINES. NO PAPER RECORD. NOT EVEN A HANGING CHAD!
Don't people understand that the machines were implemented by the Republicans for the Republicans.
I live in FLORIDA and Jeb Bush was our Govenor when our state changed to machines.
Republican for Obama/Biden
The Republican Resentment Strategy - Check out the story.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/05/opinion/05krugman.html
Republican for Obama/Biden

[OrlandoMom32]

We fixed our machines in Florida. :-) Now it's the rest of the country's turn. However, I am worried more about losing the female vote in Florida with all the negative, personal attacks on Palin. Too many independent women I know are disgusted with the all the blogs, articles and TV stories ripping
her apart as a woman and mother. Remember, she is the governor of a state! And one of only two
women ever to run for Vice President of the United States! We don't have to support her, but let's not
attack her. Or we will lose the vote here in Florida and we will be saying President McCann and
Vice President Palin!

[gop4obama]

Perhaps Barack should have chosen a local TV anchorwoman to be his running mate. Unlike Biden, with his intellect, foreign policy experience, and ability to assume the Presidency if necessary, a TV newsreader could deliver a good scripted speech, and with enough coaching could pretend to know the difference between Slovenia and Slovakia. For the most compelling country in the world, we've really dumbed ourselves down. The Obama / Biden ticket, the most competent, skilled ticket in 100 years, has to share airspace with a Rove corrupted McCain and a small town former beauty contestant, who was only recently elected governor of a very small population state. I do think there's more to come on this Palin issue, and the issue is squarely a McCain issue. It has to do with McCain's disregard for the welfare of the country, by making such a silly pick. Are we that stupid in this country? I hope not. http://www.palinbycomparison.net

[Indeedwespeak]

Those in the repub party that believe in more of the same are really galvanized with the selection of Palin. McSame and Palin are true conseratives when it comes to social issues---more of the same. McSame and Palin have provided no other alternative than to continue with the disastrous Bush economic policies, if one can call "Do Nothing" a plan of "action" to deal with our financial woes, so more of the same. Very interesting will be the debates where McSame and Palin try to label "change" what they have to offer. Hear them squirm, scream, yell, and complain about being the victims "negative attacks" and sexism when their political records and social views are questioned, which they have already tried to do. Should be an easy task for dems, if the dems don't screw it up. Remember, hit them with the TRUTH and nothing but the TRUTH. Let them try to disagree and argue against what they are on record as saying and voting for. Anything and everything is on the table when it comes to how they used their power while in office. This is a statement of facts and therefore necessary to discuss, so encourage them to talk about how the TRUTH doesn't matter (obvious bad, bad move) or what is on record is NOT the TRUTH, which of course would be stupid beyond belief.