John McCain's Blundering Week On Foreign Policy

This week, John McCain's positions on critical foreign policy issues such as Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan have all been undermined by the assessments of our intelligence community, members of the military leadership and his own respected foreign policy advisers.

In a rejection of McCain's statements that "victory" in Iraq is near, reports indicate that a new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) has found that security gains are precarious, and long-standing political and ethnic grievances could cause the country to erupt in violence. Moreover, in a speech this week, General David Petraeus contradicted McCain's positions on using our Iraq strategy in Afghanistan and on negotiating with our enemies. Even more damaging to McCain were troubling reports that a second NIE -- this one on Afghanistan -- will indicate a "downward spiral," further indicting McCain's previous neglect of the issue and his past remarks that it would be enough to "muddle through." Finally, in a damaging critique of the Senator's bellicosity toward Russia, former Secretaries of State Henry Kissinger and George Schultz cautioned that U.S. interests demanded a strong effort to ease tensions with a resurgent Russia. From his premature declarations of Victory in Iraq, to his plan to use the Iraq strategy in Afghanistan, to his refusal to engage with enemies, to his reckless, adversarial approach for dealing with Russia, this week found John McCain on the wrong side of every issue.

National Intelligence Estimate directly undermines McCain's premature proclamations of victory in Iraq.
McCain has repeatedly declared victory in Iraq, saying in 2007 "we've succeeded militarily," and more recently that "victory in Iraq is finally in sight." But just this week, McClatchy reported that a new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) warned "that unresolved ethnic and sectarian tensions in Iraq could unleash a new wave of violence, potentially reversing the major security and political gains achieved over the last year." "The findings seem to cast doubts on McCain's frequent assertions that the United States is "on a path to victory" in Iraq by underscoring the deep uncertainties of the situation despite the 30,000-strong U.S. troop surge for which he was the leading congressional advocate." [John McCain, 11/24/07. John McCain, 8/17/08. McClatchy, 10/07/08 ]

Statements by General Petraeus undercut McCain.
Earlier this week, General David Petraeus delivered a speech at the conservative Heritage Foundation that undermined several positions held by Senator McCain. Petraeus first undercut McCain's fervent support for using the "same strategy" in Afghanistan that was used in Iraq, by saying bluntly "every situation is unique." "Petraeus also came out unambiguously in his talk at Heritage for opening communications with America's adversaries, a position McCain is attacking Obama for endorsing. Citing his Iraq experience, Petraeus said, 'You have to talk to enemies.'" Finally, on Pakistan, an area where McCain has criticized rival Barack Obama for stating his intention to strike at al-Qaeda safe-havens, Petraeus addressed "the need to 'take away and hold the strongholds and safe havens' possessed by Al Qaeda in Iraq during 2007 and 2008, saying that without doing so, the rest of the counterinsurgency strategy 'won't work.'" For McCain, who for months has "wrapped himself in the mantle" of General Petraeus, the speech was damaging. [Washington Independent, 10/8/08. General David Petraeus, 10/08/08]

Grim Intelligence Estimate on Afghanistan warns of dire consequences of American neglect and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs agrees.
Talking about Afghanistan Admiral Mullen said yesterday, "The trends across the board are not going in the right direction. . . I would anticipate next year would be a tougher year." A draft National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Afghanistan found that the country is in chaos. The deteriorating conditions addressed in the report extend well beyond those covered by John McCain's simplistic plan to apply the Iraq strategy to Afghanistan. Beyond the escalation of extremist attacks, the report assesses "that many of Afghanistan's most vexing problems are of the country's own making," according to intelligence officials. "[R]ampant corruption within the government of President Hamid Karzai" and "the destabilizing impact of the booming heroin trade, which by some estimates accounts for 50 percent of Afghanistan's economy" have contributed to the deteriorating situation. Afghanistan's "downward spiral" is a direct result of the Bush Administration's obsession with Iraq, a fixation John McCain bolstered when he said in 2001 that "nobody in Afghanistan threatens the United States of America" and when he declared in 2003 that we could afford to "muddle through." [NY Times,10/9/08. Washington Post, 10/9/08. NY Times, 10/9/08. John McCain,4/10/03. John McCain, 11/05/03]

Kissinger-Shultz op-ed contradicts McCain's confrontational approach toward Russia.
Following the Russia-Georgia Crisis, John McCain adopted an aggressive posture toward Russia, steadily ratcheting up the rhetoric of confrontation. Instantly taking sides, saying "we are all Georgians," McCain escalated tensions further by calling the affair the most "serious crisis internationally since the end of the Cold War." In the weeks that followed, his running-mate appeared willing to risk war with Russia, and both Presidential debates featured McCain using cold-war language, saying that the country has "basically a KGB apparatchik-run government." This bellicosity was rejected this week by McCain's own advisor, Henry Kissinger, who, in an op-ed written with fellow former Secretary of State George Shultz, argued: "This drift toward confrontation must be ended. However appropriate as a temporary device for showing our concern, isolating Russia is not a sustainable long-range policy. It is neither feasible nor desirable to isolate a country adjoining Europe, Asia and the Middle East and possessing a stockpile of nuclear weapons comparable to that of the United States." [John McCain, 8/12/08. John McCain, 8/14/08. Sarah Palin, 9/11/08. John McCain, 9/26/08. John McCain, 10/07/08. Henry Kissinger and George Shultz, 10/08/08]

Comments

[maddronn]

The first reality is that the war in Iraq can never be “won”. Sorry McCain, that is a fool’s notion left over from your war. Our presence only forestalls the inevitable. The Sunni and Shiite have been in conflict longer than Catholics and Protestants. The two factions of Islam have been at odds since the seventh century. The notion that a Christian occupying force can somehow resolve the differences is imbecilic. The second reality is that we can’t afford financially to continue with this occupation. We can’t even afford the absurd Defense budget. We can’t be the World’s policeman if we are broke. After eight years of domestic indifference, we must start looking to our own. It is time to invest in America.

[shanedr]

Great article! Now how do we get McCain to read it?

[gmtia]

Wait a minute! Didn't Germany run out of money, WWII? We out spent Russia, Cold War. Look at us now. We're broke! Now we even owe China so we can fund whatever. I'm just so mad!!

[xmontreal]

If the surge worked how come we're still there? McCain's assertions that the surge is working is like someone fixing a leak in a dam by putting his finger in the hole. We cannot keep our finger in the Iraq hole forever. The Sunnis And Shia have been at each other's throats for 1500 years and we are not going to change them. Right now we are bleeding 10 billion a month which we cannot afford. We have to pull out and if they want to go at each other---so be it--we'll deal with the winner. Yes I know that the the neo-cons wil have you believe that the whole middle east will erupt. I heard the same story about our involvement in Viet Nam---that if we didn't get involved the whole of south-east Asia would be conquered by the communists. We left and it didn't happen.

[JonW]

And we thought the Bushers were bad at foreign policy. The McCain/Palin goofball express makes them look like geniuses. They are one dangerous duo!!

[egal]

That's what happens when their strategy is delusions of grandeur and their best tactics are anger, hate-mongering, fear-mongering, and starting a war. They never bothered learning how to tell whether a war was necessary, how to wage a war, how to finish a war, how to clean up after a war, how to prevent a war, or how to do anything involving another country that doesn't end in war.

[Winningthepeace]

One of the worst things about McCain's stand is that it dismisses the importance of the opinions of officers in the field. Washington is all too quick to tell the military what it needs, rather than ask officers in the field what they need. The situation in Afghanistan is very complex. A "one size fits all" strategy is not conducive to building a stable Afghanistan.

I find it interesting that both Sarah Chayes and General Peter Chiarelli mention that two things they see as important in counterinsrugency are good government and economic pluralism. Niether of these are likely to be achieved by just sending more troops to Afghanistan.

When you come to think of it, good government and economic pluralism are severly lacking back home after eight years of Bush. I wonder if McCain even understands what is meant by economic pluralism.

In regards to General Petraeus, his ideas are oversimplified by calling them a "surge" strategy. He's a very insightful man. McCain only uses the ideas of Petraeus which serve his political agenda.

Rememberaf­ghanistan.­net

[GPeschell]

Is Senator Obama trapped in a "news bubble"?

As the above posts indicate statements from unimpeachable sources contradicting Senator McCain have been out there for weeks. General Petreus and other senior comanders have termed the security situation in Iraq "fragile" and the gains "reversible." Such high-level sources have also credited the decline in violence in large part due to the Sunni "Awakening Councils" that put tens of thousands of Sunni gunmen (many of them former insurgents) on the American payroll.

And anyone followng events in Iraq over recent months might also note that the anti-American Shia militias have stopped shooting at Americans - for now.

So why - in both debates - with all this material out there - did Obama not throw it back at McCain when he claimed the "surge" (which McCain - as he keeps reminding us - supported) is the main reason for the sharp drop in violence in Iraq?

Perhaps Senator Obama needs to spent 15 or 20 minutes a day checking on-line news sources on key foreign policy issues - that's all the time it takes.

[larry278]

John McCain has established that he is even more inflexible, blind & too stupid to understand intelligence & foreign policy & would be be much worse than W has shown himself to be. We'll have even more blunders & failures in foreign policy & international affairs in the 1st 100 days of a McCain presidency­/administr­ation than we've had with 8 years of W & Cheney. If he were to die in office, Sarah Palin would make things much worse than the nadirs we'd plumb with a President McCain.

[cutesky]

The Obama campaign should make this information known to the American public ASAP with a gigantic media blitz...Come on guys....let's get this info out right away!!!!!

[GPeschell]

I've been thinking the same thing and "blogging" this info around myself!

In both debates, Obama let McCain get away with saying "The surge is working" in Iraq and talking about "victory" over there.

There has been lots of "solid" info out there for weeks now - including quotes by General Petraus and other senior commanders - noting that the security situation is still "fragile" - the gains "reversible."
That the Sunni "Awakening Councils" putting tens of thousands of Sunni gunmen on the American payrole was as major factor.

Is Obama trapped in an "information bubble" these days?
Maybe he should take 20 minutes a day to check major news sources to stay up to date.
(Thats all the time it takes.)

[LetMeUnderstandThis]

So there you have what is left of the McPalin campaign, bigotry, lies, fear

Obama/Biden 08

[freeinquirer]

It is surely a lot of material for Obama to use and highlight in the next Debate on Wednesday.
He will have to expose McCain forcefully and relentlessly to finally achieve a knock-out. A bellicose McCain and his wild sessetionist running mate should never have the chance to govern this nation.

[rjcrane]

Not sure why no one bothered to mention that well over a week ago Petraeus claimed he couldn't or wouldn't use the word "victory" when discussing Iraq. In the debates and commentary afterwards I never heard anyone mention this Petraeus statement yet it was well reported. It's disgusting that McCain has been able to get away with claiming victory in Iraq and no one seems willing to challenge these statements to his face.

What's worse is that by every conceivable measurement, Iraq has been a failed enterprise. So instead of using the term "victory" a sane person would be using "defeat" because that is what happens when a country wastes up to $3 trillion dollars over 5 years with no end in sight, ethnic problems that haven't been solved, as many as 4 million Iraqis displaced from their homes, as many as 1,000,000 badly injured or dead, many more living without adequate sanitation or electricity, many more living in neighborhoods that have been ethnically cleansed and are restricted by blastwalls, and over 4,000 US soldiers dead and hundreds of thousands more with other serious medical issues. We have ruined our reputation in the world community and have succeeded in aligning Iraq with Iran. No one should ever be allowed to use the word victory when speaking of this horrendous tragedy even if Iraq eventually becomes a more stable country. McCain's campaign is as big of a disgrace as his failed Iraq war has been.

RJ Crane, topplebush.com

[arrowpg]

Well said. McCain should have to write on a blackboard 7 trillion times -- I cannot use the words victory and Iraq in the same sentence. Maybe then it would sink in. Then again, maybe not.