For the first time in modern American political history, there will be a nationwide primary on Tuesday, February 5. Many of 24 states that moved their primaries to earlier dates did so with the hopes of getting the kind of attention that the candidates and national media give to Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Those states got their wish, and each of their proud traditions and strange customs will be cast on the national stage on Tuesday.
As part of a three installment series, here's a look at the South and how each candidate can expect to perform in each state.
Democrats in Dixie (Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma and Tennessee)
Atlanta is in many ways the capital of black America. It's the town of Martin Luther King, Andrew Young and John Lewis. It's the home of black colleges like Morehouse and Spelman. And in black entertainment, it's the city that gave rise to heavy hitters like Outkast and T. I. King.
Atlanta is also the heartbeat of Georgia and whichever candidate does well there is likely to win the state. That candidate will be Barack Obama this time around. Like South Carolina, almost half of Georgia's Democratic primary voters are African-American, and according to polls, these voters favor Obama.
Hillary Clinton may win support with the white electorate, which gave John Edwards almost 60% over John Kerry in the 2004 primary. Georgia was also a godsend for Bill Clinton in the 1992 primaries and it supported him in general, but this year it will award most of its 103 delegates to Obama.
To the west of Georgia, Alabama probably has the worst reputation for racial divisions of any other state in the nation, especially among Northerners. Neil Young worried about "old folks in white robes" and the New York Times has fretted about Tide football shunning black coaches. But the state also has many enterprising young black politicians who have transcended the racial divide. Rep. Artur Davis, chair of the New Democrat Coalition, is the perfect example.
Besides a large African-American voting bloc, trial lawyers and the teachers' union also play an important role in Alabama Democratic politics. Hillary may win some of those voters, but it won't be enough to overcome Obama's advantages there.
North of Alabama is a state in the south that Hillary can actually win. Tennessee is in many ways the antithesis of South Carolina, which dealt Hillary's campaign a significant blow. And it's not about race; it's about a more important issue in the South: barbecue. Memphis claims that it's the center of the barbecue universe and that its tomato-based style is the only way. Of course, Carolina would disagree and holds that que is cooked with either a vinegar or mustard base.
Obama won the mustard and vinegar regions, but Hillary hopes to stake her claim in tomato-based barbecue country. It was no surprise that when she lost the Palmetto State she was "wheels up" on her way to Nashville by 7:30 p.m. that day. Hillary will probably win most of Tennessee's 85 delegates.
She can also expect to dominate in Arkansas, where she was formerly first lady. She's secured the endorsements of most of the Democratic establishment there, and will likely rack up huge margins in fast-growing Northwestern part of the state where Wal-Mart is based. Obama may find some votes on the Delta in the East.
Oklahoma is one of two states where the Obama campaign is not running ads. The Sooner State gave Wesley Clark his only win in 2004 and was breaking toward Edwards this time around. With Edwards out of the race, Hillary will probably win the state by a decisive margin.
Republicans in Dixie (Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee and West Virginia)
In the battle for the nomination of the party of William Tecumseh Sherman, John McCain could likely sweep every state in the South besides Mike Huckabee's Arkansas. It's a shocking notion considering McCain's campaign essentially stalled in this region eight years ago.
Mitt Romney is hoping he can recapture some of that anti-McCain sentiment. According to Politico's Jonathan Martin, Romney is making his "last stand" in a handful of states that award delegates proportionately, including Georgia and West Virginia.
West Virginia was not part of the Confederacy, and has always culturally been on the divide between Dixie and its northern Rust Belt neighbors. But politically, it's drifted solidly into the GOP's southern bloc mostly on social issues. It's not likely that Romney's Wall Street Journal-type of Republicanism will work here. But then again, maybe it's the longtime Republicans and not the recent converts who will be participating in the convention.
In Georgia, it's likely that Romney will try to talk up his role with the Olympics. But Romney will probably have more in common with Braves: he'll post a strong showing but have no chance of winning the big thing. The state that graced the world with the likes of Ted Turner, Billy Carter, Michael Stipe, John Rocker and a sitting senator who challenged Chris Matthews to a duel, is better suited for McCain.
According to The New Republic, over a quarter of Republican primary voters are either veterans or over the age of 60, just like McCain. Romney might find some support in Georgia's booming business community and Huck might win some religious voters, but the state that once banned Ray Charles will go to McCain.
In Georgia, they've also got an old joke about the football team of the neighboring state of Alabama. It goes that God made the Georgia Bulldogs red and black because he saw a state of black soil with red roses. He designated the Tennessee Volunteers orange and white because he saw white puffy clouds with sun shining through. When he got to Alabama, he made the team white and red. When Tide fans asked why, He explained that all he saw in Bama was white trash and rednecks.
It's a good joke, but an unfair assessment of Alabama's electorate (and any Tide fan who takes it seriously can channel their anger on Bulldog fans). The truth is that Bama has a rapidly growing and diversifying economy, including a new Mercedes-Benz in Tuscaloosa and a Honda factory in Talladega. Meanwhile, Huntsville has a strong space and tech corridor.
Up the Tennessee River from Huntsville, the battle for the Volunteer State will be much closer. Fred Thompson and his famous red 1990 Chevy pickup might be able to steer some supporters to his friend McCain. But the other candidates can talk endorsements, too. Romney has former Gov. Withrop Dunn and Huck has Tennessee Right to Life.
The eastern part of the state, which is more conservative, will be key. Also look for Huck to excel in the more religious areas in the Knoxville suburbs and in the Bristol area, and don't be surprised if McCain has a decent showing in the more moderate areas are Chattanooga.
Sooner or later, we'll have a better idea of who is ahead in Oklahoma, but for now it's up in the air. In the meantime, check back tomorrow for analysis on the West.
