Are We Getting Too Old?

BACKGROUND

I am currently featuring Eternal Life in my daily report, which is Chapter 2 of Simple Solutions for Humanity. Globally, almost 60 million die each year. This total could well drop by a huge fraction if the aging gene is found and checked. Developed countries are already getting old. Eternal Life could become a real problem.

As an early step, look for a full court press in the U.S. Congress on health. I expect some sensible action here, especially with the arrival of Al Franken. No, not because he is the medical savior, but because he is now the 60th Democrat in the U.S. Senate.

However, wait till they need to later re-look at retirement, as the 65 age requirement was enacted in 1935 when the life expectancy was 62. Yes, in 1983 an adjustment was made to increase this age to 67 by 2027, but by then the life expectancy will be 82. There is a significant disconnect here with reality, but this condition is also encouraged by a private sector desiring better educated and cheaper youth over less productive and expensive elders.

POPULATION

While the world population today is 6.8 billion (click to get current number), you might find interest in how we came to be. It is estimated that there have been about 100 billion of us since a little more than 150,000 years ago when Homo sapiens appeared. Halfway into our existence, about 74,000 years ago, we almost went extinct when Mt. Toba, another Sumatran volcano, erupted, keeping the world "dark" for six years. Our population dropped to, perhaps 1,000. As recently as 10,000 BC, there might still have only been a thousand of us, or maybe as much as 10,000. There are no census reports. Estimates vary, but there were probably several hundred thousand humans around the time of Jesus Christ in the Year Zero.

The first billion was reached in 1804, second in 1927, fourth in 1974 and the next doubling to 8 billion is expected to occur in 2025. Nine billion is now looming for around 2050 or later. We might never reach 10 billion for reasons to be presented. However, considering resource availability, the ideal world population should certainly be far less than the current 6.8 billion. Some doomsdayers say it is already too late.

Our population reached two peaks: 2.2% annual growth in 1963 and 163 million births about a decade ago, now already down to 137 million/year. This growth rate, fortunately, has been halved today.

China has the highest population with 1.3 billion, India is #2 at 1.1 billion (but will overtake China by 2030), Europe is #3 with 0.5 billion and the USA #4 with 0.3 billion. India will gain #1 status in two decades. In 1900, Africa had 8% of the people and Europe had 24%. In 2150, the prediction is that Africa will have 24% and Europe 5%.

ARE WE GETTING TOO OLD?

The answer is yes for developed countries, and here is what is happening. Much of Europe is already experiencing negative population growth. Russia, at 140 million today, will drop to 110 million in 2050. Japan, now at 127 million, will sink below 100 million in 2050. Interestingly enough, the U.S. is still growing, 40% of this by immigration. Hmm, that border issue? Maybe we do need more youth. Our superpower status should be completely unchallenged by mid century because even China, because of their current birth control policy, will get old before becoming rich.

Thus, another huge economic crisis is looming because, for developed countries, in the 80's, 5 workers supported a retired person. This has dropped to 4:1 and will crash to 2.2:1 in 2050. The current Economist has a special report on aging populations, and much of the following is extracted from that feature.

Let's look at China, for if they get serious about one child per family, this individual will have two parents and four grandparents to support, or 1:6. Note that this ratio has reversed. Of course, China does not have that strict a policy and some of the grandparents will not be around. In any case, the ratio could well be less than 1:1. The two countries we most toss around as current and future enemies, China and Russia, will thus have huge internal problems over the next few decades. The time might now already be at hand to shift our lopsided national security expenses toward more humanitarian pursuits in anticipation of their decline. Iran and North Korea will not stimulate a nuclear winter.

Yes, we still are wrestling with our economy, and coming down the pike are Peak Oil and Global Warming. If the American Clean Energy and Security Act is a sign of how effectively we are considering these issues, I shudder to think what will happen to aging, for more than half of our population will be older than 50 by 2025. In particular, watch out for AARP (formerly known as the American Associated of Retired Persons).

The whole point of the above is that decisions on retirement age must be made, if not now, very soon, or the politics of the situation will make necessary decisions impossible. Oh, Eternal Life? Never mind.

Comments

[The Meek]

Well this article didn't stay up very long. Most of the articles I'm interested in don't. But thank you for submitting it Mr. Takahashi. I found the responses you received to be civil and informative unlike a lot of the threads I have followed on the Huffington Post.

I do read the comments sometimes. There are some smart people that post on this site, you have to sift thru a lot of ranting to find them. I even post my opinions now and then. A lot of whackos are doing it so I figure I may as well also. Thanks again.

[The Meek]

There is no reason why older people can't contribute to society in a meaningful way if given the opportunity. I'm 66 and live in a 3 generation household and I contribute. Humans have always lived this way in the past, and when things got tough the old were the first to die.

If we actually were rational beings we wouldn't be in our current mess and if we all of a sudden became rational we could solve it easily, but we ain't and we won't, so catastrophe is inevitable. This may provide an opportunity for the more rational among us to prosper and true Homo sapiens may emerge to become the dominant species on the planet.

[Patrick Takahashi - Huffpost Blogger]

Thank you for your comments and attitude. I post these articles, however, to galvanize concern and change for issues that deserve more sensible consideration. I thought an internet newspaper such as The Huffington Post would help catalyze real action through those instant comments. Alas, I don't think any of my articles have served to inspire anyone to do anything of any significance..

By the way, I'll turn 69 next month so I certainly agree with you that we can still contribute to make a difference for Planet Earth and Humanity. Today in my blog:

http://planetearthandhumanity.blogspot.com

I continue my treatment of Eternal Life by focusing on what to eat and drink.

[RMankovitz]

As a research scientist and author of several books on health, I subscribe to the hypothesis that the current human population far exceeds the planet’s carrying capacity, perhaps by double. Feeding the population is only part of the problem. We seem to be running out of safe places to dump the toxic wastes we generate, and we may well drown in our own effluent.

GM Frankenfoods might just solve the world hunger and population problems over the next few generations, but not in the way you would expect. From research on the effects of GM foods on animals (illness and failure to reproduce), it could be just a matter of time until humans will feel the same effects of eating this junk- susceptibility to illnesses (such as pandemics and epidemics) for which there are no cures (perhaps already happening), and low sperm count in men and infertility in women (perhaps already happening).

The resulting increase in death rate and decrease in birth rate could speed up the process used by nature to deal with other species that exceed the carrying capacity of their environment – a path toward sustainability - or extinction. This time, we may have pushed Nature too far to fix it.

If you would like to explore ways to increase your chances of being one of those still standing, check out the Nature-based research in "The Wellness Project," by me. Ask your librarian for a copy.

Roy Mankovitz, Director
http://www.MontecitoWellness.com

[Patrick Takahashi - Huffpost Blogger]

I, of course, mostly agree with you. Wellness is finally taking center stage, so I can only commend you for your foresight.

Yet, as doomsdayish as my posting was and your general attitude seems to be, I continue to be driven by the need to make a difference for humanity to overcome our current and looming ills. I want to believe that like the 70's when we were able to overcome those imminent disasters, this tough period just provides a larger challenge. DOES ANYONE OUT THERE HAVE ANY KIND OF CLUE AS TO THE PATHWAY TO PROGRESSIVE SURVIVAL? Or, are we doomed?

[RMankovitz]

Hi Patrick:

Perhaps I came across a bit too pessimistic.

My best guess at the moment is that we will undergo a population decline that will reduce our species to about half its present numbers in about 40 years. During that time, I am hopeful that, as a result of fear (a potent motivator), we will realize the need to return to Nature and to closely follow her program.

I believe this paradigm will be driven primarily by the conscious feminine in all of us. It is the feminine, of course, that provides the nurturing and connection to nature that we sorely lack in our patriarchal society, filled with arrogance and ignorance of our place in nature.

My friend and colleague, Marion Woodman, perhaps the most well known living Jungian analyst and proponent of the conscious feminine, supports my belief and is assisting me with my new book on the subject. For those interested in her work, see www.mwoodmanfoundation.org. Her writings are archived here: http://www.opusarchives.org I consider her work critical to our long term survival.

Roy Mankovitz, Director
http://www.MontecitoWellness.com

[Aaror]

About 25% of women in the US have a disease called PCOS (poly-cystic overian syndrome)-and about 80% of those cases are undiagnosed. Symptoms: obesity, INFERTILITY, male pattern hair growth, irregular periods (caused by the ovarian cysts the disease is named for), and heart attacks, among others.
Causes: Formerly primarily genetic, but can be induced by consumption of hormone laced foods. Primary cause of the epidemic in the US is believed to be Beef and other hormone-injected meats, primarily from McDonalds and other fast food chains.
So McDonalds and other factory farm meats are already causing the infertility you describe!

[RMankovitz]

Interesting that you should mention PCOS.

The latest thinking in a small circle of scientists and MDs is that cysts of all kinds are related to iodine deficiency. It turns out that a large number of compounds and toxic halogens in our environment and our food can precipitate an iodine deficiency. Testing of several thousand women show virtually all are deficient. Inorganic iodine/iodide supplementation protocols are developing a very positive database for reversal of cysts and the prevention of recurrence.

For details on this research, see the book "Iodine, Why You Need it, Why You Can't Live Without It," by David Brownstein, MD. I also cover the subject in some depth in my books. For those researchers in the audience, see: http://www.optimox.com/pics/Iodine/opt_Research_I.shtml for a list of publications in this area.

Roy Mankovitz, Director
http://www.MontecitoWellness.com

[jhNY]

Let's review: there are no jobs for anybody at any age presently not working but eventually, if life expectancy keeps rising, we will have to require folks to work for many more years before they retire, assuming there are ever any more jobs than those presently filled. And we'll all live forever if the anti-aging gene is discovered which would be wonderful, yet a bad thing, as it would merely mean we could live forever if we could just get along without fuel or food.

[Patrick Takahashi - Huffpost Blogger]

Maybe the doomsdayers have a point. The future looks hopeless. On the other hand, in the 70's we somehow survived losing the Vietnam War, Population Bomb, Limits to Growth, Acid Rain, Nuclear Armageddon, Silent Spring...without much of a concerted effort. If Homo sapiens made it through Mount Toba, I suspect we'll work something out. The doomsdayers, though, might be right that our lifestyles will be severely compromised. Then again, maybe not.