For a "Change-Turnout-New Voter" Election, Bill Richardson Should Be VP Choice

He easily passes the first test. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson would be a very effective president if something happened to Obama. Before bitterness, James Carville called him, "the most qualified person ever to run for president". Larry Sabato, Professor of Political Science, said that Republicans told him privately, "if Richardson gets the nomination, it is all over for us".

Richardson Drives New Voter Registration and Turnout. The '08 election will be about change (from different people, to the way we conduct our political system, to policies, to transcending politics), for which voter turnout and new voter registration are the keys.

History tells us that few people vote for a ticket because of the vice-presidential candidate. All of the others mentioned -- Biden, Bloomberg, Brown, Clark, Clinton, Dodd, Edwards, Hagel, Nunn, Rendell, Sibelius, Strickland, Webb -- would be excellent candidates and VPS, but, if history is correct, would not change the outcome significantly.

That is not true, however, if that VP candidate uniquely drives new voter registration and turnout. Richardson could change the electoral map -- now, and for two generations.

There are 3 under-registered, under-voting groups for whom an identity politics can trigger massive increases in participation: youth, Afro-Americans and Latinos. It is true that the poor and lower middle-class constitute a fourth group, but they have been relatively difficult to reach and congeal to increase their electoral participation in part because they have a variety of different interests, and thus, since Robert Kennedy, have not had a single iconic figure around which to rally.

Barack Obama's persona and message have galvanized the first two, and legions are going out to increase their participation this fall.

The third group is Latinos.

Governor Richardson has been nominated 5 times for the Nobel Peace Prize, is loved by labor, is highly experienced in foreign policy having negotiated successfully with the worst regimes, has been an extremely successful Governor of a red-state growing jobs/improving education/raising teachers' salaries/raising wages and re-elected with 68% of the vote, is a former Energy Secretary -- one of the critical issues for at least 2 decades to come -- is pro-2nd Amendment, hails from the West... and, he also happens to be Latino.

Richardson fits beautifully Barack's theme of change, and unity. The latter is part of his DNA. During the debates he kept urging his competitors to remain positive.

The "Debate" Issue is Format-Dependent. Before sketching the electoral map with Richardson on the ticket, let us address the big negative that is appended to any discussion of his merits: he showed in the primaries that he not a great debater and thus might not do well against his McCain counterpart.

Granted, Richardson did not do so well in the 8-person, 60-second format, chosen by the networks and sponsors. He improved as the debates continued, but he retained his tendency to ramble. And, yes, like everyone, he made the occasional gaffe.

But, and here is the key point, the vice-presidential debate format will be agreed by the two candidates. Hence, Richardson can bargain for a format better suited to his style.

I was recently at a luncheon headlined by Governor Richardson supporting the re-election of another Western Democratic Governor, Christine Gregoire of Washington. He spoke without notes. As he got to the end of his speech the audience spontaneously rose, began cheering and yelling, and the crescendo kept rising forcing Richardson to shout into the microphone in order for his last sentences to be heard. This in the laid-back Northwest!

If anyone attended a Richardson event on the campaign trail, where he did Q&A after a 15' speech, he would note that Richardson was in total command-and-control. Almost everyone walked out shaking their heads up-and-down, that this was a person they liked, and trusted.

Thus, the big "he-won't-score-well-in-the-VP-debate" dig against Richardson can be handled by insisting on a free-wheeling format, not dissimilar to what McCain has already suggested for himself and Obama.

In that format Richardson shines. And, let's face it, one does not win nearly 70% of the vote in a red state without being adept at handling contentious settings, as he has done for years on TV with the likes of Lou Dobbs and FoxNews.

Unique Merits. Bill Richardson is a unique figure in American politics. He is a successful Governor who has delivered on matters such as improved education, job growth, better healthcare and the environment. At the same time he has been nominated 5 times for the Nobel Peace Prize, and has been a successful international crisis negotiator.

When North Korea wanted to start talks about their nuclear program with the United States, whom did they call? Governor Bill Richardson.

Getting those talks started was classic Richardson. They called him ostensibly to retrieve the remains of a US soldier killed during the Korean War. The Governor of New Mexico went to North Korea and participated gratefully, non-arrogantly in the ceremony, and used it as an occasion to get the talks cranked up.

North Korea is one of the most dangerous regimes in the world. But, they trust Richardson. A Richardson vice-presidency might enable them to trust the US enough to resolve their nuclear issues, and thus make the world a much safer place.

He could have touted this in his primary campaign for President. Negotiations are sensitive matters, and he knew that injecting this directly into the campaign could make a successful outcome more difficult. So, for the good of the country and the world, he said little about it.....again, classic Richardson. That's true patriotism.

A successful Governor of a red state. A seasoned, experienced and trusted diplomat. A former Energy Secretary in a period where energy independence and clean fuels will be a key issue. A man who, on his own initiative, reversed a half-century of denial by both Republican and Democratic Administrations, and got billions of dollars of compensation for radiation workers who had been injured working on our national defense.

Richardson Changes the Electoral Map. Let us turn again, then, to the electoral map. Even without increased registrations, Richardson's presence on the ticket, as a highly successful Western, Latino Governor, would turn Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico blue and put Florida back in play.

With the passion that his presence on the ticket would engender, major increases in voter registrations and voter participation in other states such as Pennsylvania and New Jersey would make those states safer wins, and new registrants could put Florida over the top. Moreover, the selection of a pro-2nd Amendment Governor on the ticket would soften Barack's "clinging" gaffe in the Midwest, while appealing as it always has to the West.

Even previously rock-ribbed conservative states such as Texas, with large populations of potential unregistered Latino voters, could become competitive. The race between Senator Cornyn (R-TX) and his Democratic challenger even today is close to a dead heat. If the McCainaanites have to put money and effort into Texas, that accounted for 2/3 of George Bush's popular vote lead over John Kerry, they will be hurting big-time.

Thematically, like Obama, Richardson also represents change. "Change you can believe in" will be buttressed by "change that works", because Richardson has actually brought major change to what was one of the country's poorest states. That is change that many parts of the country seek. Moreover, Richardson is genetically predisposed to unity and transcending phony differences, exactly Obama's message.

Let us be also blunt about the political knock on Richardson. With Obama-Richardson there are two "people of color" on the ticket. The good ethnic news -- it bridges a supposed gap between the two groups. The good political news -- it shows that such considerations, if not passé, are at least not dispositive.

The question is whether significant numbers of voters who would not have voted for an Obama ticket because of Obama's race would do so if he had a Caucasian running mate, but not if another person of color, no matter how accomplished, completed the ticket. That is not a question that can be polled, but it seems highly unlikely. And, with McCain's prominent position on immigration, it will be hard for Republicans to demagogue that issue that, by the way, did not work very well for them anyhow.

Finally, because the Clinton campaign used Richardson's endorsement as an attempt to set an example for other superdelegates not to "defect", and failed, there may be a concern that selecting Richardson would anger the Clinton camp.

Let us hope that the perfect vice-presidential choice -- with extraordinary international stature, a history of both foreign and domestic political achievements, with expertise in the key areas of energy, diplomacy, economy and governing, with a near-perfect thematic match to our nominee, and with complementary political appeal -- will not be blackballed by such pettiness.

This is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for the progressive politics of change to win a landslide victory, change forever the map of American politics, and deliver on policies that the majority of Americans have wanted for decades, and to make the world a better and safer place.

Let us not blow it.

Comments

[PaulAbrams]

From today's Politico:

McCain is in a remarkably strong position for how poor the political environment is right now,” said Brian Nienaber, a GOP pollster. “McCain could win Pennsylvania, Ohio, Colorado and Nevada with a high Hispanic population. It really does scramble the map of where Obama does find those electoral votes.”

Those states disappear from a potential McCain victory w Richardson as VP. Let me add that, if he were not superbly qualified, his Latino background would not help. But, adding his track-record, experience and heritage, it will galvanize Latinos in those, and other, states to register and vote in droves.

Good riddance to John McCain

[srrolf]

Best and most comprehensive piece yet on the potency of Richardson as VP. If anyone has any doubts, or was not overly impressed by his performance in some of the debates, I urge you to YouTube and watch in its entirety the Richardson endorsement of Obama in Portland. It is a terrific speech that even my hard core Republican friends were very impressed with. Moreover, the chemistry between the two of them was astonishingly powerful - everyone I talked with afterward made a point of it . Finally, this occurred in the "Whitest Major City in America" and yet Richardson got the "Rock Star" treatment every bit as much, if not more, than Obama did. Watch it. You'll have an entirely new take on how much sense this makes. Seeing is believing - and you will believe once you've seen it, I promise.

[Grulg]

Did you actually WATCH any of those dozen or so Debates Richardson was in?? You did. Okay-you want this transparent, cynical, pandering Gov of a minor SW state to be the VP, do you-?? Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight. FUCK that. Make it Hillary or make it Jim Webb and get on w/ it.

[Harrygton]

I absolutely agree with each point you make... plus I would add that his down to earth style will complement Obama's lofty rhetoric! A great ticket, yet the specter of HRC with a hand rising from the ground to snatch victory at the last moment, still haunts me!

[standforpeace]

You make some great arguments. I also like the idea of a VP who brings a particular area of expertise with respect to energy (that could be extended to include other environmental concerns) that could be turned into a portfolio where he takes a leadership role.

I also think that John Edwards could do bring something to the ticket by helping to shore up support with the working class and energizing union support. He could be given a portfolio that focuses on issues of reducing poverty and pushing for health care reform. If Obama took Edwards on, he could couple the announcement with a policy package designed to make substantive appeals to the poor and working classes.

I think either Richardson or Edwards opens up new possiblities going forward.

[dhinds]

Agreed - although Edwards would make a great Attorney General and Richardson an excellent Secretary of State. As for his supposed inability to debate, I followed those broadcast by CNN (all I can get in my location) and thought he did quite well.

Also, he took on Carville recently (after Carville called him a Judas) and had no difficulty imposing his logic. He set the tone of the interchange and demonstrated an impressive moral character and maturity. (He does well in relaxed situations).

[Manx]

I would rather see Richardson as Obama's Secretary of State. Jim Webb would be my choice for VP.
The campaign is going to be one of the most vicious we've ever seen (if it hasn't been already) and Obama will need a pitbull like Webb to stand up to the Swiftboaters. Webb has a military background as impressive as McCain's, which will defuse the national security issue. Webb is articulate, forthright, eloquent and has conservative credentials to attract crossover Republicans. Also, it means the Democrats would most certainly carry Virginia.

[robinhood2]

Well put Manx. I also think Webb would be a great choice for VP.

[John Warren Gotsch]

I agree with Manx about Webb as VP and Richardson as Sec of State for several reasons.
Webb is a ballsy punchy one-liner that can deflate McCainn's pomposities and BS and keep him on his back-heels. Richardson is more thoughtful, the reason he rambles. I first had thoughts about Biden for Sec of State but now for me Richardson has grabbed it and branded it as his own!
i have given almost 20 years of my professional life to Puerto Ricans, Hispanics, Chicanos, Latinos and Native Americans and Bill Richardson as Sec of State will change the political landscape of America, just a bit slower than if he ran as VP.
Barack Obama will have eight years but his legacy will continue much longer and Bill Richardson will be a major player for a very long time.

[mln7905]

This would be a powerful ticket for the Dem's.

Obama/Richardson 08

[JJK]

If the Obama folks pick Richardson it should be because they feel he'll deliver New Mexico for sure, that he'll secure Colorado, where Obama has a lead, and that he'll give him a boost in Nevada, where Obama now trails McCain. As for redrawing the electoral map or whatever, maybe he could, but we hear that kind of talk every few election cycles and it generally doesn't pan out, so let's keep it real and let's keep it specific. Richardson would also have to overcome his poor campaign performance to date, but that shouldn't be a problem if he sticks to carefully targeted venues.

Finally, they have to vet Richardson very, very carefully and be sure that there's nothing embarrassing in his background (there are always rumors about this and, while such rumors are usually worthless, they can't take the chance). He didn't stick around the campaign long enough for the press to do this as thoroughly as the Republican Attack Machine will.

This will be the first and most important decision that Nominee Obama makes and, indeed, will be the highest profile decision he has ever made, given his relatively brief time on the national stage and his lack of tenure in the Senate. He can't afford to have it blow up in his face.

[Yohomegirl]

I believe that the 'Clinton Women' constituent will fly off the handle if Bill R is the VP, because of allegations of sexual harrassmant. As an Obama woman, I would also prefer someone a little cleaner. I looked and found posts saying he pointed at his crotch and then at a particular woman. Sorry Bill, but that ain't gonna cut it. Any woman except Hillary would do as well.

[bish66]

Richardson would make sense, if he had managed to win anything in the primaries.

A strong showing in Florida would have been a good arguement for him, but he dropped out before Florida.

Bringing in his state in 2004 would have been a good arguement for him, but he failed.

Standing up for thevoters of his state by endorsing, as he said before, the candidate who earned the majority of the votes his state would have been a good arguement, but he decided to endorse the second finisher.

I liked Richardson, but the explantion of his change of mind was disgraceful. He would be a burden. The only argument that speaks for him is that he would force McCain to appear once or twice in the southwest. That's not much of a help, so forget about Richardson as VP.

[JJK]

florida is out of reach. he campaigns in colorado, Nevada and new mexico, plus New Jersey, and he's a good pick if there are no other problems.

[thedirtman]

"Standing up for thevoters of his state by endorsing, as he said before, the candidate who earned the majority of the votes his state would have been a good arguement, but he decided to endorse the second finisher."

More votes came in for Obama and candidates endorsing Obama then for Clinton in the state of New Mexico. He voted for and endorsed the right person.

[coollbreezz]

Yes I agree with Paul Abrams that Bill Richardson will be the best candidate for VP. He and Obama have a lot in come. They both come from an inter-racial marriage, they are both half white...So Obama-Richardson ticket, will represent two minority ethnic groups and the majority group - The racial make-up of the ticket will be White-50%, Black-25%, Hispanic-25%. Talk about change..Wow

[booksnmore4you]

I completely agree!

[SCG]

I'm with you. They could make an excellent team. He has the experience from the Dept of Energy, United Nations and Governor of New Mexico. Richardson is a uniter by nature, a thoughtful man who listens. Even when he disagrees with someone, he can disagree without being disagreeable. He brings loads of experience to the ticket.

Few dislike him, except perhaps the Clinton loyalists who feel bitter( but they feel that way toward Obama anyway). Even Republicans have used his diplomatic abilities, and respect him.

I agree his debate performance was lacking. He needs style coaching, not to knit his brow when asked a question. It appears that he didn't hear, or understand ,or maybe like the question. To relax and be present, not so rehearsed and repetitive with his answers. Thankfully, VP debates are seldom race deciders. Short of going berserk on stage, you pass the sanity test. Or lest we forget Vice President Dan Quayle?

The thing is he's great in a one on one, with groups of voters, or as a television commentator (which is the mode he should tap into as a debater) . If Obama wasn't running and so amazing in his own right, I could have easily been a Richardson supporter for President. He really had me sold watching him talk to a group of voters in a private home in New Hampshire on C-Span.

I hope Barack is seriously considering him.

[erykah]

Would love to see an Obama/Richardson ticket.

[KarateKid]

He has been my No. 1 choice all along, as it is with many others, for the very reasons outlined in this article.