If Obama Wins Iowa, Gore May Become President

The conventional wisdom holds that, if Hillary wins in Iowa, she will likely run-the-table, with victories in New Hampshire, South Carolina and then enough of the February 5th states to put her way out in front. Add to that the super-delegates that she almost will assuredly have, and she would be unstoppable. The aura of inevitability would be replaced with inevitability itself.

If Obama wins Iowa, however, the story will become more complicated. It is likely that his popularity among independents would provide a comfortable margin in New Hampshire and then black voters in South Carolina, sensing that the chances for Barack actually to win have become real, would likely provide him a victory in that state as well.

Hillary, however, is not going to go away. The Clintons' network is too strong, the opportunity of scoring big wins on February 5th too real, the implied rejection of Bill Clinton by what is still an adoring Democratic electorate too painful, for them to go quietly into the night. The mantra from the Clinton campaign will quickly become, "it's about delegates, stupid." And, they are right, it is.

With Hillary battling on February 5th, and with sufficient funding and support in the big states to deny Barack an aura of inevitability, the battle for the Democratic nomination will resemble Reagan's 1976 challenge to the sitting President, Gerald Ford, or Gary Hart's 1984 challenge to former Vice-President Mondale, more than it will John Kerry's run in 2004.

Throw into that mix John Edwards who, whether he wins or loses in Iowa, is not going to fold either. Edwards has been running for president from the day he was elected Senator in North Carolina, and has no elective office to which he can return, and the dirty little secret is that he could not win elective office (e.g., Governor) if he were to return to North Carolina politics to await another day. Win or lose, this is his last hurrah. He has taken Federal campaign dollars and, while that limits the amount he can spend, it provides him the money to carry on. Given the sheer size of the February 5th menu, expect Edwards to be nibbling in several venues.

For different reasons, Bill Richardson will also likely continue through February 5th. If Biden does well in Iowa, he too may try to hang in there through February 5th.

What this may lead to is a delegate distribution that makes it impossible for one person to have the nomination locked up prior to the convention. (If Edwards wins in Iowa, a similar but even more complicated version of this story will play itself out; moreover, if Barack wins Iowa but Edwards beats Hillary, then Edwards will be competing with Hillary to take second in New Hampshire and South Carolina, and any success would weaken, but certainly not destroy, her prospects on February 5th.)

Moreover, if Barack wins the early primaries, expect a mainstream media frontal attack on whether he is "really" ready to be president. Hillary will try to be the recipient of that doubt, whereas Edwards has less experience than Barack, so is unlikely to benefit from it. The MSM likes to create personas and then destroy them. They did it to Gary Hart's "new ideas" in 1984, and they even did it to Ted Kennedy in 1980; after egging him into the race, they aired an interview prior to his announcement in which he said, naturally, that he had not decided, and portrayed this as Teddy not knowing why he was running. (Like Reagan in 1976, I would expect Barack to choose a Vice Presidential running mate early, forcing opponents to run against 'the ticket', and thus reducing anxieties that the MSM will build about his readiness. That will force his hand to choose a more partisan Democrat, whereas if he could wait, he would have had the freedom to make a more creative choice, that itself would be unifying to the country.)

With the potential of a truly fractured Democratic field, the one person who could heal that wound and set the race on fire would be Al Gore. Untarnished by the primary battles, redeemed both by his own successes and Bush's failed presidency, with a cause that percolates down to 1st graders who go on nature walks, and with a conviction not to be handled by "handlers" (who are killing Hillary now, as they did Gore in 2000), Gore would be perfectly positioned to run a winning fall campaign. Although Hillary herself would be loathe to "release" her supporters to Gore, many of the super-delegates and a large fraction of the actual delegates would nominate Gore in a heartbeat, and only those states where the delegates are committed on the first ballot could be held.

Just wishful thinking? I suggest not. So long as Hillary is not running-the-table, the question is whether any of the Democrats could do so, so long as Hillary remains in the race. Short of unlikely defeats in the New York and New Jersey primaries on February 5th, it is not likely she is going to fold her tent voluntarily.

Politics does indeed create strange bedfellows. I wrote earlier about Edwards, Hillary's harshest critic, keeping her viable through February 5th since much of his support would likely go to Obama if he were not in the race ("Miracle on Ice: Edwards is Hillary's Firewall to February 5th," December 17, 2007). Here, so long as Hillary remains in the race but is no longer the frontrunner, she is may be handing the nomination to Gore.

Comments

[jungpatawan]

Way ahead of you, babe!

I said the same thing all the way back on December 13. When do I get MY HuffPo Column?

JP

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2007/12/13/gore-us-blocking-progres_n_76610.html?load=1&page=2#comments

"My dream scenario/prediction for '08.

Early victories by Obama and Edwards in the primary process throw a hip check into the Hillary victory lap. A narrow Hillary win in Illinois derails Obama a bit. Suddenly everything is up for grabs, with Edwards fading fast and a surprise late surge by Richardson. Delegates are fragmented with Hillary leading, followed by Obama, Richardson and Edwards. Kucinich has about 60.

Thus the Democratic Party spends most of 2008 without a clear candidate and all the front-runners criss-cross the country trying to appear Presidential, and tearing into Mittrudy Giuliromney, the presumptive Republican nominee, who has already indicated Huckabee as his VP pick.

Denver, August 25, and the first round of ballots confirms the entrenched vote totals. Richardson and Obama backers block an immediate second vote in order to keep people from bolting to Hillary. But as the television cameras blink red on the 26th, a sea of signs appears as if by magic.

"Re-elect Gore" "Draft Al" "Gore 2000+8"

The second ballot sees Hillary still in the lead, but down about 200 votes, as Gore has rocketed into a virtual tie with Obama for second. Hillary's whip-count before the third ballot shows the trickle about to become a stampede, and as the vote begins, the Alabama delegation defers to New York, where Senator Clinton yells into the mic "Mr. Speaker, the Great State of New York, the Empire State, asks the entire convention to join us in nominating by acclamation the once and future President of the United States, Albert Gore of Tennessee!"

Pandemonium ensues as the next President of the United States, Al Gore, ponders whether to make his Vice President the first woman, the first black or the first hispanic to hold the office.

JP

| posted 01:19 pm on 12/13/2007

[Janco54]

I've read a lot of fiction in my life but this scenario takes the cake.
Never gonna happen.
Except Obama winning Iowa.

[fearwig]

If Gore runs, he's going to have to fight an uphill battle: he's already said so adamantly (if not, well, specifically) that he's not running that there's going to be a small mountain of criticism and distrust amounting from those statements.

[MPeter]

It is mindboggling sometimes to read from the very knuckleheads that called Al Gore Wooden and stiff; lacking in humor now writting in a adoration. You savaged the guy and left him for dead until he dug himself out of the pit. Now you want him back so you can savage him again? It is still the same Al Gore, only that he is a Nobel Laureate. He does not fit in the inane media narrative that drives US presidential politics. Just deal with HRC. She has flamed out and now plagiarizes Obama without even blinking:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rweVOO-fhug

[zjr909]

Never forget how rabidly anti-intellectual the American people are. Sadly, the Nobel prize surrounds Al Gore with an aura not only of socialism (horror of horrors!) because it's a Scandinavian prize but of downright intellectualism. Ironically, Mr. Gore's prodding anti-charisma may be his biggest asset if his party's nomination does happen to fall into his lap. An intellectual with charisma would be an absolute anathema to the majority of Americans (how in hell could you ever expect to have a beer with such a person!) And for God sake don't forget the academy award he won! No, I'm afraid Al Gore has won one too many frivolous award to still be electable. Hell, even John Kerry's purple heart came back to haunt him!

[AbstractImp]

Ah, the election. Well, we used to have elections. Now we have scrappy games of mud-slinging, posturing, and lying, the only three skills all our "candidates" share.

Driven by vague hatred and vague fears created by our national liars, all because of two bearded men who have quietly retired into executive terrorist suites in Dictator Musharraf's Pakistan, our so-called voters, clutching their pocketbooks in fear of taxes, which they do not want rebuilding bridges or feeding the homeless, but don't seem to mind when all that money is used to murder a million innocent people in their name, will once again decide who is to "lead" THEIR America, while the rest of us continue to pay for winning the Civil War and NOT throwing the south out of the "Union".

At such a time in our history, when many of us believed we were already in a constitutional crisis, constitutions disappear all round the world, and our own rights are buried under shenanigans and the trumped up "War on Terror" (Trademarked by BushCheneyCo), this is what we get.

Not a single one of these people is a president. The situation we are in demands something that no one seems aware of. The humanistic trends of our society, from FDR to LBJ, have been strangled by the front-men for military and corporate greed, who bought the media, playing to the fandom of so-called voters, but really holding the line for the mega-elites who are trying to control everything so as to protect their profit margins.

If you know anything about the history of liberal democracy, from Locke through the Bill of Rights, and yet vote for the party that murdered Allende and supported Pinochet, let Bhutto die to protect Musharraf, who can't even catch Bin Laden in his own country, voting for the same people who let oil go from $20 to $100 per barrel, failing at their own agenda while starting an unnecessary war, then you deserve what you get.

The blood of one million people is on your hands - America, you make me sick.

[Tellmethetruth]

It sounds like your real candidate of choice is Al Gore and none of the above to the current batch running on the Democratic ticket.

Let's not forget that Al Gore made a couple of big boo boos. 1) Lieberman 2) he back Howard Dean before the primaries and that fizzled after Iowa.

The other boo boo Al Gore made in 2004 and 2008 is he's not running for President.

We all have to except his choices - they are history now.

[Ecomom2008]

I really began paying attention to politics when the Supreme Court handed Bush the presidency. What happened to one man/ one vote?
The electoral college is obsolete.
I spent from May 2007 to November 2007 as a Draft Gore Supporter. There are thousands of us across the U.S. We all thought that Al would announce his plans to run after he heard that he had gotten the Nobel Prize.
Many of us have taken on a greater role as citizens because we were inspired by Al Gore's integrity and his truth telling in "The Assault on Reason,"
Last month, Al told the California4Gore activists to stop collecting signatures to put him on the Califrnia ballot in Febraury. Why did he wait so long to tell us that? Because I don't think that he has decided yet whether it is more important to focus world wide on global warming, or to take on the run for president again.
I think after Al Gore went to Bali and realized that as a citizen, he could not get what he wanted to accomplish done in terms of greenhouse gases, that he may have concluded that the only way to accomplish his goals is to be elected president.
So I will not be surprised if Al Gore enters the race at some point and Wins.

[DasBoot]

The is an irony here that you don't appreciate: everything you and others like about Gore is due to the fact that he is NOT running for anything anymore.

Gore recently stated that he does not like being a politician all that much. That realization must have been tremendously liberating to him. Any scenario of Gore running again is thus an idle dream.

[raptor]

Why would or should Gore subject himself to all that again?

[starboymikey]

Interesting that virtually every other Dem voter I speak with lists Gore as their first choice. "If only Al was running," is what I keep hearing (and thinking).

So many of us seem to feel that come November, we're going to have to settle for what the legendary Mort Sahal called "the evil of two lessers."

[starboymikey]

As my grandmother used to say, "from your mouth straight to God's ear."

[AgathaX]

Gore? Who are these people that suddenly think Gore is such a jewel. He is no more charismatic today than he was when he ran away from Bill Clinton's record and lost to Bush. Yes he lost. A statistical tie resolved by the courts in favor of Bush is a loss.

People who have to be begged to run make lousy candidates: Wesley Clark, Fred Thompson.

Thank god Obama is attracting independants into this primary. People who think the likes of Kerry, Gore and Hillary are viable candidates need to wake up and smell the coffee.

[jsarets]

My mind keeps replaying the fictionalized convention from the sixth season of The West Wing. It's the establishment candidate with negatives vs. the folksy charmer who's been there before vs. the youthful, inspiring, minority candidate.

They all go into the convention neck-and-neck, but the candidate of the future breaks through the deadlock with soaring oratory and seals the deal with a heavyweight VP.

But who's the heavyweight VP in the current situation? Biden? Clark?

Gore?

Is it entirely too crazy to envision an Obama/Gore ticket (yes, in that order)? Would he be allowed to serve a third non-consecutive term as VP? Would he have any interest in this familiar spot on the ticket?

Or would they just decide man-to-man to flip the ticket and give Gore the top spot even though Obama won the nomination? Would that violate some sort of party rules?

Gore/Obama would be an exceptional ticket in 2008, and it would set up the party nicely for the future. I think Obama is certainly capable of being a great president today, but he'd be even better after 8 years as Gore's VP.

[elkabong]

The narrative of a Gore candidacy is itching to be told.

He should be the next president.