If You Think Bush Is So Bad that McCain Can't Win, Recall French President Sarkozy

He served a President with historically low approval ratings. His opponent was an attractive, intelligent history-making leader--Ségolène Royal would have been France's first female President. The country was struggling economically, and Sarkozy had been, among other things, the Finance Minister under the unpopular President Chirac.

Nonetheless, Nicolas Sarkozy had brandished a reputation of something of a maverick. Although a protégé of Jacques Chirac, he broke with him and had supported a rival for the French Presidency. He was decidedly pro-American in a country that generally distrusted US foreign policy and especially George W Bush.

Sarkozy won, with nearly 54% of the vote. And, Chirac had endorsed him.

Now, no two situations are identical, and one could point to many distinctions, and the relatively poor campaign waged by Ségolène Royal whose Socialist Party was not completely united.

But, in a deteriorating economy, 54% of French voters chose the laissez-faire candidate. [All such characterizations are relative--Sarkozy is still to the left of the US Democrats, although he was considered rightwing and conservative in France]. In a political climate in which the incumbent was held in very low esteem, a member of his party won the election despite being endorsed by him. In a country that disparaged the US approach to terrorism and foreign policy, the pro-American, law-and-order candidate won.

McCain has embarked on a Sarkozy campaign strategy, employing the tactics of Karl Rove.

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And, thusfar, the Obama campaign is letting him get away with it. Joe Biden has proclaimed that he does not deal in personalities, while "his friend whom he honors" John McCain rips into the very soul of Barack Obama's character.

John McCain has declared himself a maverick, and a person who puts country first. At the end of his convention, he told people he was doing this all for them.

Really? Then why did he write that he was running for President purely for personal ambition? Let us emphasize, he WROTE that in a book, and he read it for tape in his own voice. It was no mistake, no slip-of-the-tongue, not taken out of context. It is what he said.

Is opposing the minimum wage, or flip-flopping on taxcuts for the wealthy, or promoting the war in Iraq, or telling the American people we would be greeted as liberators, or voting against veterans' benefits, or kowtowing to the religious leaders he once called "agents of intolerance", or hiring the Bush-Rove team that so cruelly savaged him in 2000...is that for "us"?

Because Sarkozy had served in several cabinet positions in Chirac's government, arguably he was more closely tied to Chirac than McCain is to Bush.

That close link between Sarkozy to Chirac did not work for Royal. Necessary, to be sure, but insufficient.

The Obama campaign should take note....if they allow McCain's narrative about himself to go unanswered, by McCain's own words, and believe tying McCain to Bush will be a sufficient riposte, Barack may find himself spending November 5th commiserating with Ségolène instead of forming a government.

If you accuse me of trying to make us paranoid...you're right. It's the only way to win.

Comments

[hybridace101]

I was exactly thinking the same thing. I thought that we would be re-enacting the french election of 2007 18 months later considering how similar Hillary and Rudy are to Segolene and Sarkozy respectively. However we don't need a centre-left woman and a rightist man to do it as all it can take is an unpopular president and a close race to re-enact it.

[Paralogos]

I live in France and followed that election very closely. The comparison is completely inapt. Sarkozy is a right-wing populist, but he's also a very sharp campaigner. Segolene Royal may have been a glass-ceiling-breaking left wing candidate, but she campaigned badly and looked pretty foolish in the televised debates. Above all, Sarkozy managed to attract the far-right, anti-immigrant vote that in previous elections has gone to the neo-fascist National Front, throwing them just enough anti-immigration code words to bring them on board without overly alarming the center-right. If Segolene Royal had been as controlled, thoughtful, and eloquent as Barak Obama, or if Sarkozy had been a bumbling speaker fronting for a wildly unpopular party, it would have gone the other way.

[butofcourse]

Having lived in France a few years ago, back when Sarko was Minister of the Interior, I have been comparing our presidential election with France's and have come to a different conclusion. The candidate with ideas-any ideas at all, good or bad- wins. Sarkozy talked about radically reforming the French welfare state to help the ailing French economy- a radical idea, but an idea nonetheless. Segolene proposed nothing.
What is McCain proposing? Nothing. Agree with him or not, Obama has ideas. And people will be attracted to that.

[Nofuzzydreams]

Barack may find himself spending November 5th commiserating with Ségolène instead of forming a government. Change the may find to will find. Any attempt to attack McCains character will backfire. It is too late. McCain's character is a strong positive in the minds of Americans and that etching is permanent.

[sherbug]

Obama needs to reclaim his brand by using the following statement:

"I am change you can believe in. McCain is change you can Xerox".

That's would be a great one-liner that would take the change message away from McCain.

[Parisian]

As a citizen of France I find your comparison very interesting. Sarkozy here is indeed a conservative however I must agree the Sarkozy is to the left of many in the US Democratic Party. Where I must disagree is that the Socialist Party, during the election, had one of the most terrible campaign organizations in my memory. I worked in the Socialist Party campaign and was absolutely furious on how they ran the election. Royal was a great candidate however her campaign did not have any organizational skills. If Royal had a campaign as Obama's she would be our President.

[PaulAbrams]

I agree about how bad the Royal campaign was, and said so in the article:
"Now, no two situations are identical, and one could point to many distinctions, and the relatively poor campaign waged by Ségolène Royal whose Socialist Party was not completely united."

What is unclear is that Obama's campaign is not doing a poor job now either....McCain is now ahead of Obama in the polls.

[LAB10]

Sarkozy had neither an OBAMA nor a-palin' vp with which to contend.

[JimR]

Good point. I don't think this analogy works very well.

[zedthewizard]

people underestimate the simple logic of less government and lower taxes. the takeover fannie and freddie can reinforce the reform change of mccain. it might ignore economic realities, but your trying to win an election.

that said, the left appears pretty darn motivated too. i think the hardest thing will be that sarah palin won't meet the press until she's well rehearsed. how much do you really need to know to skate by? just memorize his policy stances and repeat them. sure you have to get a bit deeper, but really how much. she' s the cash machine and the celebrity. she's motivated. i forget the debate format, but this is america. just keep saying we need to be prepared to defend america and american interests around the world.

okay. in my opinion mccain has gained two points and obama lost about two. the gallup tracking is 42-48 for obama. obama is strong in more states. i think if bill clinton came out and stated that mccain's plan is pretty much bush's plan and that ruined his economic success that could be helpuful. i'd also give obama the lead but the reps get down and dirty so 50-50.

[CostaDelBarto]

I want Sarah Palin interviewed by the press corps. Enough rehearsed speeches... time for her to behave like a VP and to face the press or to go home.

Like hell she will face the national and international press. She just doesn't have the guts.

[scriptorblog]

Your argument is based on the premise that French elections follow the same historical rules that US elections do, i.e., the party of an unpopular second term president loses elections. Since Sarkozy won this means, according to your argument, that Sarkozy represents some sort of exception to the general rule and, therefore, McCain can also be such an exception. For this argument to be valid you must first show that French elections follow the same rules as US elections. Your conclusion may be valid, but you cannot assume that your premise is valid.

Also, you must agree, for your premise to work, that Ms. Royal's party, the Socialists, is the same as the US Democrat party. I suspect that McCain/Palin would agree with this. However, no Socialist has ever won a US presidential election. Unless you mean to say that the Socialists of France are not really comparable to the Democrats of the US. Except of course that Royal lost which means that Obama will lose because the French are like the Americans, except when they aren't.

[PaulAbrams]

I don't think you are correct: In the French psyche socialism is an acceptable alternative.
In order for the analogy to work, one really does not need precise congruence. The basic point is that the French "re-elected" the party that had done so much damage to the country, with a person proclaiming himself to be a maverick of that party.
If the Obama campaign allows the maverick and country first lies to persist as McCain's persona, the same thing will happen here. Linking McCain to Bush is not a sufficient strategy.

[peterg76]

" In a country that disparaged the US approach to terrorism and foreign policy, the pro-American, law-and-order candidate won." Law and order is *not* the US approach to terrorism.

[montemalone]

It's possible to be the good guy in the end, but you can fight dirty in the meantime.
The Democratic party needs to swallow hard, take a deep breath, and let the mud fly.
It should only take about 10 minutes of scratching around to come up with a bucket load of TRUTH that should make any person with half a brain renounce any thoughts of voting for McPally.

[AfzaalKhan]

AA very good anyalysis and so frightening true. I think the problem with Obama compaign is lack of One liners, all responses and attack has been a paragraph long. U need to drive home a point in a sentence. 3 second attention span dude lolz

[alienufo]

does france have direct elections? We don't. The electoral college still heavily favors Obama.

[dehovitch2]

Your citing of the French experience as comparable to Obama-McCain is a good one, but your evaluation is just plain wrong. The French socialists sold out to the conservatives just as the U.S. Democratic Party has done for decades. The Democrats deserve to lose because they have become almost indistinguishable from the Republicans. As an American expatriate living in France I observe that the Democratic Party is as unprincipled a political entity as can be imagined. I will vote for Ralph Nader in November.