John Warner's [not so] Secret Warnings

John Warner (R-VA), outgoing Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, may become the main protagonist to bring the war in Iraq to an end. Although yesterday's hearings were about Robert Gates, the Defense Secretary nominee, and the reporting focused on the extent to which he provided honest answers that deviated from the ridiculous recitations of the White House, Warner's comments were the real story.

Warner's comments during the hearings, his answers on Meet the Press last weekend, and his words in October upon returning from Iraq all point to his leaving the reservation if the Administration does not get real and make a major course change in Iraq. The Administration cannot afford to lose Warner: Republican; Armed Services Chair; former Navy Secretary; veteran of World War II. [And, one of the eight husbands of Elizabeth Taylor]. Warner gives every sign and signal that he is fed up with this crowd.

Warner has been wavering for about 6 months, but remained loyal by not holding oversight hearings, and not expressing his concerns publicly. But, unlike Bush, Cheney, Wolfowitz, Perle, Feith, Cambone, Libby and Rove, Warner actually served in combat, and it seems to have gotten to him. When he returned from Iraq, he said we were "moving sideways". That is like a stock analyst changing his recommendation from "buy" to "hold", when he really means "sell" but cannot get there in one step; because, to do so would raise the question about why the stock was not a "hold" yesterday if it is a "sell" today, and it might alienate the company upon whom he may depend for information in the future. Even lockstep George Allen got it: he endorsed Warner's view in an attempt to distance himself from Bush during his unsuccessful re-election campaign.

In a subsequent hearing with Rumsfeld prior to the election, Warner wondered aloud whether the war resolution that referred to fighting terrorism applied to a civil war. He went so far as to say that a new war resolution might be required in order to provide the legal basis for our continuing presence. This past weekend on Meet the Press, he said that the President had to listen to the Democrats. At the hearing today, he spoke about the need for bipartisan support and raised again the issue of whether our engagement in sectarian violence is authorized by the law. He also referred to the election as sending the Administration an important message. Even George Allen would understand that he really meant: "listen to me, I'm sending you a message".

Warner seems relieved that the Democrats won. It is likely why he urged George Allen not to demand a recount (and may have promised him not to run for re-election, so that Allen can run next cycle), so that he was no longer Chairman and he would not have to confront the Administration directly. This way, he can leave ("blame") oversight to Carl Levin (D-MI; incoming Chairman), and telegraph his positions by insisting on bipartisan consensus.

If the Administration insists on its own view of reality and goes its own way, Warner is signaling that he will not play ball. Let us hope he follows through.