The conventional wisdom that John McCain's remarkable powers of resurrection that captured the Republican nomination and that current polls showing him outperforming the generic Republican in a race with Obama or Hillary means that he will be a formidable general election candidate is false. He will get clobbered.
It is already apparent that John McCain will not fare well in the glare of a one-on-one general election campaign against an opponent with a cogent alternative to the disastrous policies of the last 8 years.
In order to keep McCain in the game, the mainstream media -- McCain's 'base' -- will not jump on him for repeated inconsistencies, gaffes and just plain stupidity. But, this is a new era, with online newspapers, blogs, citizen reporters, YouTube.
Even outside the glare of one-on-one that he now enjoys, McCain has already experienced many instances of being completely wrong (the factions in Iraq), tone deaf (response to the housing crisis), or mired in the past (another 'free-market' fix to health care). Coupled with his age, even the media will not be able to create confidence in the American people that McCain is their future. And, once in the glare of the public spotlight, he will no longer be able to hide.
For ratings purposes the MSM wants to create the myth of a close race. They want viewers without doing any work or analysis that costs money.
The conventional wisdom is superficial, at best.
How about a dose of reality: McCain captured the Republican nomination by winning the large states with large delegate numbers but that no Republican will win in a general election. For these states his competition was too radical right, or just too lame, or both. In the South and Midwest he would not have won if Huckabee had dropped out, and thus not split the evangelical vote with Romney.
Has anyone forgotten that even the Republican electorate was unhappy with all its choices? Consider McCain's opponents: Fred Thompson, the great white hope, entered late, campaigned lazily, and most resembled the Uncle Trusty character in Lady & the Tramp. Yet, he polled in second or third in most states before he was even running. Mitt Romney had to reverse by 180-degrees all of his previously stated positions. His credibility among Republicans did not run very deep. Rudy Giuliani tried never to engage in an actual election, constantly retreating much like Lenin did to seize power in Russia during World War I; the self-styled hero of 9/11 (whose arrogance actually cost 100s of lives) was in perpetual retreat. That, and his weird personal behavior and family life, endeared him in the end to no one.
My guess is that the Reverend Huckabee could not abide a Mormon winning the evangelical vote, and stayed in the race for that reason alone.
Not exactly a riveting case that McCain is a skilled campaigner. Moreover, it was only McCain's base, the mainstream press, that kept him alive by providing free publicity and thus credibility, while he was bankrupt and unable to afford much paid advertising.
McCain's current poll numbers reveal his lack of appeal. Obama and Hillary are pummeling one another, raising both of their negatives, and McCain is only able to get close in the polls when he has his side of the ledger all to himself.
Nothing that can happen in the 'real world' will help McCain. If, as they did in 2004, the Bush administration raises the terror alert 5 times between September and November (and since November 2004, they have not raised it once!) to play the fear card, the American people will not buy the argument that another Bush-like national security policy would be successful. If they do not raise the terror alert, then McCain fades into irrelevancy.
Should the economy weaken further, McCain is not exactly the warm&fuzzy persona that comes to peoples' minds to help them. And the chances, unfortunately, are zero of the economy becoming so strong that middle class Americans will suddenly feel as if they are getting ahead.
McCain has an inescapable dilemma: none of his nostrums will be credible because they will be in the mold of right wing mythology or they will be rejected by the right wing for not being in that mold.
Even seniors, his co-generationalists, will not vote for him, because they (who know what is feels like to be 72-76) will not feel that he is up to the job physically. Moreover, he is an "old" 72: 5 years of getting beaten in a POW camp will age you.
Hillary would beat him, handily.
Obama will trounce him. That is because he will bring in so many new voters who will actually vote that states that are currently considered out of reach will be in-play.
Obama represents the future for Generations X and Y. These voters cannot even conceive that when Barack Obama was born, he would not be permitted to drink from certain water fountains, nor wade in the kiddy-pools, in many states. To them, it is incomprehensible that that happened in their parents' lifetimes.
For boomers Obama represents the last chance to see in their lifetimes the different world they wanted to create that was stolen from them by the assassinations of Robert Kennedy and Martin Luther King.
On a psychological level this election will be about the future vs. the past.
John McCain is no one's future.
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McSame's moment was back in 2000 when he was actually winning, but was swiftboated by his own party.
McSame has become Bob Dole v2.0.
Don't underestimate the stupidity and narrow-mindedness of the American public. There are plenty of white people who will vote for McCain. He may not have a clue about how to help the economy, he may not want to get us out of Iraq, and he may think the free market will solve the health care system, but that's better than voting for the black guy. And then you have idiots who will think that McCain is a true patriot. He endured torture in a POW camp while the other guy's pastor criticized America. This is the mentality we're dealing with out there. Voters who are so easily manipulated and have warped priorities. I would love to see Obama win, but thanks to Hillary, he's so damaged, I wonder if he'll be able to beat McCain now. Of course, that's the way Hillary wants it. Obama loses to McCain, the country gets worse during his term, and in rides Hillary claiming she can save the day in 2012.
Why do you always resort to race?
How would you feel if I said "There are plenty of black people who will vote for Obama"?
Or, "He may not have a clue about how to help the economy, he may want to get us out of Iraq, and he may think the free market will solve the health care system, but that's better than voting for the white guy."
Get the point?
The only ones that are turning this into a racial issue are Obama supporters and if you think that it will guarantee a win for Obama then I have bad news for you.
Personally I want Obama to win but I want him to win for the right reasons not because the color of his skin.
I predict 300+ electoral votes for Obama in Nov
I know this is not the most intelligent repsonse--but wooohoooo! I've been making the same argument to those who have been be-moaning John McCain as a candidate who is going to give the Dems a fight this fall. He's a VERY weak candidate and not at ALL because of his age.
Obama/ The American People '08!
If Democrats approach the general election with this attitude, they will lose. Again.
Well if Paul Abrams says so then it must be so..
When the econony is failing, unemployment is rising, gas prices are prohibitive the word liberal takes on a new meaning. Even ardent conservatives have to survive durinng the next 4 years or more. Liberal sounds pretty good if many of the things that are wrong with this country during the last eight years can be turned around, by a so called liberal. If any one thinks Obama is too liberal I'd say that may not be a bad thing and many Republicans will find liberal more attractive in November than failed conservative policies.
Corroboration of sorts: In North Carolina we've already had 13% showing up in the early voting program which lets people vote over a three-week period before the election day. That's about the normal percentage of the electorate to vote in TOTAL in a contested primary season. Lot of that is Obama. They'll be back. McCain will carry North Carolina, but not everywhere.
Once a nominee is chosen, Shecky McCain will fail. Hero or not, there will be that ONE Yourtube moment that will haunt him the entire campaign. It's only a question of when it happens, "my friends."
there is still the question of who mccain will choose as his VP running mate - the answer to this question will be a crucial element in mccain's campaign -
given his age and cancer history, whoever mccain selects will be viewed as having a very real possibility of taking control of the oval office sometime before 2012 - one possible choice i find especially worrying for dems in november is JEB BUSH, whose name alone would be enough to energise the bible-thumping, knuckle-dragging republican sheeple vote
JEB BUSH? I'm thinking not so worrysome....Attaching the Bush name to his Presidential campaign, along with the Georgie Daddy Hug photo, would be suicide for McCain. What a great idea. Republican implosion, I'm loving it.
At this point, voters wiould be most comfortable if McCain chooses Hillary
for VP, so come November the Awsome Threesome will still all be with us.
Yeah. That's what I thought in the last election
Look what happened.
Check the polls that consistently show a tight race with either candidate.
Underestimating Republican strategy was the biggest error made in the last election.
Let's not do that again.
You're absolutely right about underestimating the Republican strategy in the last election. We blew it big time. This time around, we need to be on the offensive and not fold in the face of repeated lies (Swiftboat, anyone?)
I, too, thought that Bush was going to be soundly defeated last time. I miscalculated the effect of fear tactics on US voters. Which is why I think McCain may have it-- he'll play the "fight terrorism" card right to the Oval Office.
I don't recall anyone assuming that Bush was going to be clobbered, or even that Bush was the underdog.
I do agree that underestimating Republican tactics is a big error.
I assumed Bush would be clobbered last election. Just like you're assuming that McCain will be clobbered in this one. I hope you're right. Unfortunately, though, thinking something will happen doesn't make it so.
With McCain, we've got a classic case of the Emperor's New Clothes. Exactly who are the tailors? What happened to straight talk, maverick man?
if he doesn't win by default.
On election day, it will be about the past opposing the future. We must trust as a nation that we cannot go backwards in time in regards to race, sex, class or creed. We must join the international community as a unified nation (period) How did we become so cynical as not to know the power of words...
Didn't one good book say, "in the beginning the word said 'let there be light'...and there was light"? This word didn't ask for light and got clouds...I know, I know this message may take you were you don't want to go...
A first rule of creating the reality you desire is "to pretend as if". I see change; I know change. After at least 2 failed (and/or stolen) elections, not this time...
Brilliant-- on target--
Given the Republican expertise in election stealing (voter suppression, Diebold machines, etc.) The Democrats need a landslide to win at all. And there is no sign that's going to happen.
True, but Rev Wright is a goldmine that keeps on giving. Have you seen his recent press conferences? All the GOP needs to do to win is run an add of him making fun of JFK mixed with the infamous god damn america with a splash of Obama saying he can no more disown him then his white grandmother. Obama, as much as I hate to say it, is going to have to go negative against the GOP in the fall. Taking the high road might work among Dems, but he can't just brush those kinds of attacks of his shoulders. The only good thing about this is that the market has already been saturated, therefore those tactics won't be nearly as effective as if this had come to light closer to november. Repubs may not be enthousiastic about McCain, but they will certainly be fired up against Obama. Obama is going to have A Lot of work to do heading into the general as far showing he isn't elitist, unpatriotic, effete, radical, or overly black, even though we all know those charges to be false. He also needs to forcefully remind voters of the fact that on every issue that matters, Gramps McCain is dead wrong. Hopefully he will use his almost certain cash advantage to saturate the market with aggressive adds that do just that. As long as people remember that a war is going on and the economy is in crisis, Obama will win.
The people are so over the Wright thing. Only the media keeps hanging on and on, and soon they'll give up when they look around and realize no one's watching anymore.
As much as I don't want to see McCain win, I am going to laugh my ass off if he does!
McCain is the perfect candidate for the Republicans at this moment in history. Rightly or wrongly, he is seen as a maverick. His conservative credentials are suspect among conservatives, which makes him appealing to a wide range of voters. He is very attractive to independents because of his perceived independence. He's a war hero, having paid the penultimate price in defense of his country: POW. He will appeal to rural and working folk, the economic and national security voters. He will snag the Reagan Democrats.
The Democrats need to put forward a candidate the brings the big tent, not only liberal Democrats, African Americans, and young people, but the elderly, Latinos, Asians, white rural and working class voters. Hillary Clinton brings that big tent. Obama is too liberal. The groups attracted to his campaign, while impressive early in a primary, have faded at the end, and were never enough to prevail in the general. McCain will be president if Obama is the nominee.
Will someone please put the "maverick" myth out of its misery? McCain is no maverick. If he was, wouldn't he be talking about something other than a free market solution to health care? Or have a plan to get out of Iraq reasonably and responsibly rather than staying until hell freezes over? Wouldn't it be really maverick of him to remove the words "tax cuts" from his vocabulary? How maverick is it to sing "bomb bomb Iran" when it's the same tune GW, Cheney and the other neocons are singing?
The only reason McCain is called a maverick is because "his base" the MSM keeps calling him that. Please.
Very astute, except for the part about Hillary Clinton.
McCain is not so far back that the Red states can't have their way with US one more time. Having half the Demos angry with their candidate in November will make it that much easier for the Repo man. Most interesting remaining question is... Who are we gonna get for VP?
Did you really want to make the Demos figure out how to get US out of Iraq? Of course you didn't!
And I fear McCain will be President if Hillary is the nominee.
So once again, the Democrats will have snatched defeat out of the jaws of victory.
The main Repo advantage at this point is that the Demos
have to nominate *somebody*. Or DO they??? Bwahahaha!
Observe that Hillary supporters mostly fear that McCain will
be elected if Obama is the Demo candidate, and Obama
supporters are convinced that if Hillary is the candidate,
McCain will be elected. There appear to be TWO WAYS for
McCain to win, which make for good odds for the Repo man.
Here's how McCain wins: despite the fact that he resigned in shame, all of Alberto Gonzales' goon are still there. The good attorneys who resigned are still resigned. Florida has already "caged" the League of Women Voters. Voter ID just reared it's ugly head through the Supreme Court. Hundreds of thousands of key votes in key states go missing.
McCain wins.
Poo-poo Gonzo's appointed thugs at your peril.
The only thing that's energizing the GOP, or keeping them from outright flatlining is the ridiculous bickering between the Clinton and Obama camps.
Yes, mostly Hillary's fault, although Barack has fumbled the ball, or thrown it into the gutter a few times himself. Which is precisely where Hillary's taken this race, into the gutter.
They are the Coke and Pepsi of this race, so close in values the only thing that separates them is minutiae regarding universal health care that will never be passed regardless. But McCain is the bland old fashioned Ice tea, or rather that powdered ice tea that's sat in the closet for thirty years, and solidified into chunks of crystalized sugar.
He said the problem in Viet Nam was we didn't put enough into it. Meaning he thinks we could've won Viet Nam. Which means that Senator John McCain is out of his fucking gourde. He's a grunt soldier, told to take a hill by some invisible force in his mind ( probably his admiral father ), and refusing to give up, even after its proven a lost cause. He still can't define success in Iraq other than using Bush's parameters " we've won when we're victorious ".
" An explanation of cause is not a justification by reason. " C.S. Lewis
Here's how McCain might win ... suppose H. Clinton manages to steal nomination from my guy. Then I write my guy's name on ballot in November. Multiply that by as many voters who have come to the realization that H. Clinton's campaign is Karl Rove stuff. And I'm the one who says Friends don't let Friends vote for John McCain (recommending Cliff Schecter's book about McCain). Certainly McCain is a disaster, having been totally cowed by the Armageddon sector of the Republican Party. So how could I write in my candidate's name knowing we might get McCain ???? It is visceral. H. Clinton has smugged such a swath through anything true and anything good that I cannot do it. I said I would. I read Schecter's book and said we cannot do that to America. But she is worse. What we need right now is for her Peter Paul suborning perjury charges to come forward ... where are those NY depositions ... what is going to stop her reckless ambition? I cannot. And if and when Obama ever steps down he will say to support her. I would like to see all the democrats who prefer him write his name in November if somehow, someway she manages to scare or lure voters with her tactics. Did we ever find out whether Barbara Reynolds is responsible for Jeremiah Wright's coming out party?
I agree that McCain is a weak candidate, but I'm not sure that means Hillary could defeat him. Bush won against two candidates who were orders of magnitude more intelligent, articulate and knowledgeable than he was. The Republicans will run all out against Hillary-the-Liar, which will be easy because the catalog of her lies is enormous and will undoubtedly lengthen; by the time they finish, who will trust anything she says?
MSNBC did a computer enhancement of the three candidates after 4 years in the White House. Obama had a few lines in his face, Hillary's crows feet were deeper and more profound, but God...McCain looked like the Mummy without the wrapping. Boo! Scary Mummy.
This is a welcome and wonderful Blog.
However, there are at least two potential flies hovering above the ointment.
The first is an attack on Iran. In spite of obvious negatives, that may provide sufficient support to elect McCain.
The second, having once worked in the office of then Senator Robert F. Kennedy, would be an ugly parallel.
Both are horrible to contemplate. But, unfortunately, the world remains full of dangerous and demented individuals.
Now that Iran is not taking US currency for their oil, an attack is practically assured.
Posted May 3, 2008 | 02:42 PM (EST)