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Paul Abrams

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No Joke, No Hyperbole: 2012 May Be America's Final Election

Posted: 09/18/11 03:27 PM ET

--"The high sounding phrase, 'the American way', will be used by interest groups, intent on profit, to cover a multitude of sins against the American and Christian traditions"
--Halford E. Luccock, Yale Divinity School, September 12, 1938.

During the remainder of 2011, voters will likely repeal Kasich's anti-middle class labor law, throw out Michigan Governor Rick Snyder, and, in early 2012, send Wisconsin's Governor Scott Walker packing.

Democracy will seem to be making a comeback. Tragically, it will likely be its last gasp prior to rigor mortis.

The rightwing has always faced two inescapable dilemmas -- most people were not wealthy, and the numbers favored Democrats who supported the less wealthy, the middle class, the poor, and minorities, so that as the franchise was expanded, their ability to maintain power became more difficult; and, our democratic institutions were relatively strong, as demonstrated by the ability of a single Judge, John Sirica, to set the wheels in motion that foiled the attempted rightwing coup d'états known as Watergate.

But, they came close. Had Judge Sirica not been taken incensed by the insult to his Court of clearly not being told the truth, AND had Woodward's and Bernstein's determination had not been so dogged, AND had the Washington Post's top brass buckled to intense pressure from the Nixon White House, rightwing hooliganism may have become legal, respectable and entrenched.

Since that major setback (described exactly that way by Barry Goldwater) to the cause, the rightwing has gradually but inexorably gained control of the judicial system so that unconstitutional laws that secured their power would be enforced, and good laws that restrained their power would be declared unconstitutional.

The result: fair election laws like Arizona's overturned, the Founders were discovered to have secretly meant that corporations were people, and discriminatory voter ID laws have been enacted, and allowed to stand. If one ever cares to know why the Republican Party hated John McCain so much, and that there was nothing he could ever have done to assuage their animosity, it was because of the McCain-Feingold Campaign finance law that limited Republicans' ability to buy elections. Even more than Watergate itself, McCain-Feingold was a major setback for rightwing designs.

There is a good chance that President Obama will win the 2012 popular vote by a comfortable margin, but lose the electoral college because Republican legislatures are changing the rules about how electors are chosen. Instead of winner-take-all, the results will be tallied in each Congressional district in key states Democrats usually win, so that the major population centers, in places such as Pennsylvania, will yield few net electoral votes for the President.

When now-Justice Samuel Alito applied to the Reagan Administration for a job, he recounted as a credential his outrage in high school(!) when Baker v Carr (aka, one-person/one-vote) was decided. This is the person who will help determine whether that case is being violated by selection of electors by Congressional district, or even if Baker v Carr were correctly decided. Stare decisis, a respect for precedent means absolutely nothing to them, or haven't you noticed.

The discriminatory voter ID laws, and gerrymandering after the 2010 census with Republicans in control of many states, coupled with unlimited corporate money, will make permanent both the voter ID laws themselves, and the iron-fisted control of state legislatures they will provide.

If anyone believed 2011 was the year of the direct assault on proponents of the middle class, clean air and water, public education, and respect for first responders, and democracy itself, just wait until 2013.

Because what is most remarkable about 2011 is that the rightwing makes no apologies whatsoever for what they are doing. True, they never talked about it in the 2010 elections, but, once they took power, they have exercised that power without apologies for destroying democracy in America.

This is no joke.

It is also not hyperbole, because the safety valves for redress -- the courts and the ability to change course through elections -- will have been effectively closed.

And, once effectively closed, the noose will be tightened. Laws will be passed in the name of "protecting workers" to prohibit unions from making political contributions without the specific consent of the members (corporations will have no such equivalent protection for its shareholders). Unions will be prohibited from having dues taken out of paychecks, and public service unions will be outlawed. More fellow-travelers will be appointed to the courts.

With control of the courts, discriminatory election laws will be upheld, and the franchise will shrink. As FDR said in 1944, when Republicans in Congress wanted to prevent soldiers who were fighting World War II from voting,

"there are those who believe their chances of election are greater if only the total vote is small enough".

But, you say, It cannot happen here? It has happened here already (the South prior to the civil rights and voting rights laws were single party states without any avenue of redress), and that was changed only by external power -- the federal government.

It's happening. Look at Florida, Michigan, Ohio, New Jersey, Wisconsin today.

And, when the federal government is similarly controlled as it will be for 2012 and beyond, there will be no outside force to undo it.

Those of despotic tendencies can seize power or win power. Once IN power, they rig the system so that they remain. It will be no different here. American national politics will become like the political systems of the South prior to the civil rights and voting rights laws.

Preventing it will require a massive shift of traditional Republican and all independent voters to the Democrats in 2012 for the sole reason of protecting their democracy and what they can get from it -- equal protection of the laws, a safety net, and opportunity.

Unless the Democrats translate the specific issue of Medicare, for example, effectively into broader themes, and people realize that Florida/Ohio/Michigan/Wisconsin today are just the tip of the iceberg as to what our nation will become.... one has reason to be afraid for the future.

This is asking a lot of a party and party leaders who have not even tried to get the American people to realize that the reviled "Obamacare" is the rightwing Heritage Foundation's plan.

 

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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
MekhongKurt
06:34 PM on 09/25/2011
Mr. Abrams, I didn't crunch the number myself, but I read an article a day or two ago in which the author said he had done so using the 2008 presidential election but assuming the Republicans get the changes they want in every state they're trying. He said Obama still would have won with a few over 300 electoral votes (307, I think, was what he said).

He also posited that Obama will be harder to beat in 2012 than the Republicans think he will if they do succeed.

Now I'm wondering, since I plain don't know.
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PCMartin
Bullish on cat food and refrigerator boxes
10:54 PM on 09/19/2011
"This is asking a lot of a party and party leaders who have not even tried to get the American people to realize that the reviled "Obamacare" is the rightwing Heritage Foundation's plan."

That says it all. It was Democratic Party leaders that pushed Obamacare *through*; and it was Democratic Party leaders that failed to challenge (or later, reform) the filibuster so that something more progressive could be enacted. They clearly no longer represent the interests of the Party's nominal constituency. Until we ban private sponsorship of politicians and adopt equal, public funding for all candidates; until we ban legalized bribery and adopt stringent conflict-of-interest rules for public officials; until we break up the uniformly pro-corporate news media conglomerates and replace them with a more diverse, independent, ethical press; and until we adopt a voting system that lets us vote for third-party challengers without spoiling the election; we will continue to be governed by politicians who represent their big contributors, their future employers, and the corporations that control the news. Democrats may still be the lesser of evils for now, but if we don't achieve those fundamental reforms, they will continue moving to the right and continue offering the bottom 90% little more than lip service.
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PCMartin
Bullish on cat food and refrigerator boxes
10:27 PM on 09/19/2011
It's a tedious and pedantic read (although a mercifully short one), but I'm struck at how accurately Jack London's "The Iron Heel" describes the United States today, 100 years after it was written. It seems the New Deal and the Great Society were just temporary setbacks to our corporate oligarchs' drive to complete their capture, ownership, and control of the country. Even if you're not a Marxist, it's probably a worthwhile read. If nothing else, it's a reminder that working class Americans in the early 1900s were up against the same kind of plutocratic oppression and political disenfranchisement they are now.
Star2000dancer
Pay it forward, the movie..
08:42 PM on 09/19/2011
I'll leave with this thought. There are far more Independents than any other party. They control the election, and they come from both sides.

It is illegal for states not to allow people to vote Independent. Is that going to change? That's all for now.
Star2000dancer
Pay it forward, the movie..
08:38 PM on 09/19/2011
Last sentence: Obama care is the Heritage Foundation's plan.

Maybe that's why I'm trapped in this Senior Retirement Village. It's like being in a small scale model of what's happening in the world.

Especially this one. clover bought it in a "package" deal. They didn't even want it. So, they're letting it go. It was the most beautiful, premier, crime free area to live in. Since Clover Properties took it over, it's become a cross between a camp and One Flew Over The Cuckoo's Nest" How I wish I could find someone to see this.

You can not move or get evicted unless you don't pay your rent. The rent goes up more than COL, and you know there's been NO COLA for 2 yrs. This is like tor_torure. In fact, it is, bug , mold, mildew, criminally insane infected he11.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Badfinger1
...reconstruction has failed...
06:55 PM on 09/19/2011
...As I have been saying for years, the republicans agenda has the unmistakeable odor of Christo-fascism....
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Badfinger1
...reconstruction has failed...
06:21 PM on 09/19/2011
.."Until we follow our leaders blindly, we will never be truly free..."
Major Frank Burns, 4077 M.A.S.H.
Star2000dancer
Pay it forward, the movie..
08:39 PM on 09/19/2011
No one on this thread? Same comment for 2 hours? It's more interesting than the other threads I['ve seen. What is going on?
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Jen Celli
Done sitting and watching quietly.
03:42 PM on 09/19/2011
Dismal truth. One can't imagine where this will wind up; but if ever there were a time for great cataclysm and the decimation of mankind, now would do it. At least something would be left of the planet.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Jerry Bourbon
04:05 PM on 09/19/2011
It will wind up with an election being held in 2012. Someone will win this election. The losing party will do everything in its power to prevent the winner from enacting his or her program. Then there will be another election in 2016, and the process will repeat itself.

Sort of like what has been going on for the last 200 years.
Star2000dancer
Pay it forward, the movie..
07:40 PM on 09/19/2011
No. It's been over 200 years. Empires average 200 years. Something is going to change. That's why they shoved that 12/21/12 date on us.

It's starting to look like Nero fiddling.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
John Roman
I am the walrus
12:36 PM on 09/26/2011
Where this will end up is where it always ends up when corrupt power disenfranchises the working class - revolution. When gas and milk are $8 a gallon and there are no jobs and 50+ kids per class and Creationism is forced down their throats, the underground movement will swell, the gun toters wil be liberal and the Republican corporate entities will feel the sting of mass boycotts. The president will ultimately use force to disperse protesters and America will resemble Libya......
03:23 PM on 09/19/2011
A little bit of scare tatics. The supreme court has 9 juctices 5 nominated by repubilcan and 4 by democratic presidents as close to even as you can get with a 9 total. AZ has a court out of control and dictating policy from the bench, CA has courts out of control and dictating from the bench, one left one right. Republicans using the census to redraw congressional lines, democrates do the same thing, look at IL.

As FDR said in 1944, when Republicans in Congress wanted to prevent soldiers who were fighting World War II from voting,

Clinton did this in both of his winning elections.

It doesn't matter the party they both only look out for themselves, they do not have the counrties best interest. And the article is so slanted to one side it would be funny if people didn't take it serious. Politics SUCK no matter what side you cheer for.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Adam of CA
Independent Information Hunter
03:10 PM on 09/19/2011
Understandably Mr. Abrams does not have the Faith of Abraham. Instead he offers a realistic Reality Check about the NO Republicans and the HELL NO Teapublicans.

The only solution is to remove the Republican Party which refuses prosperity for Americans. Such a self-serving political party deserves to be buried in the Nov. 2012 Elections.

The Nov. 2012 Elections is the last opportunity for the Mad-As-Hell voters to take back the America outlined in the Constitution.
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pennywell
do republicans dream of electric chairs ?
03:09 PM on 09/19/2011
thank you for this great article! i've bookmarked it and intend to share it with others..
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Richard Mock
03:00 PM on 09/19/2011
Penn is not a give me state for Obama in 2012. Changing how the electorial votes are awarded might actually help him. It would be ironic if the Republicans changed the rules and the rule change cost them the election instead of Obama. It would certainly make them irrelevant and give Obama more time to campaign in Florida.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Jerry Bourbon
03:11 PM on 09/19/2011
The Penn situation could very well come back and bite the Republicans, which is why I think they will ultimately not do it. (Although I would like to see every state do this.)

The concern among libs about the potential for an electoral vote redistribution in PA is touching. I wonder where they were when Democrats tried to do the same thing in Colorado?
Star2000dancer
Pay it forward, the movie..
07:41 PM on 09/19/2011
The phoney 2 faced electoral.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Jerry Bourbon
02:09 PM on 09/19/2011
One assumes another liberal has figured out that Obama has no prayer of winning reelection next year, and is already trying to spin his impending loss as "fraud".

He's still going to lose...
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trumbull desi
If I have something pithy to say, see below
03:07 PM on 09/19/2011
You really can't see the forest for the trees, can you?
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vogonpoet42
Illegitimus Non Carborundum
03:28 PM on 09/19/2011
Have you looked at the current crop of Republican contenders? Obama has no chance of losing in 2012!
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
steve-in-abq
02:05 PM on 09/19/2011
President Clinton says the conservatives scare people. You all agree. Paul Abrams tries to scare people with this article, nobody says a word. So, if you agree with the messager, it's information. And if you do not agree, it's scare tactics.
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Paul Abrams
02:20 PM on 09/19/2011
If one does not like a future without expansive voting rights (and some conservatives just want the propertied classes to be able to vote), without a social safety net of social security, medicare and medicaid, without investment in public education, without a first-class infrastructure, without clean air and clean water (the Missouri river on fire again), then yes, one has reason to be afraid. Because that is what the Republicans want and will do. They are doing it.
On the other hand, the scaremongering the Republicans do are based on fantasies--Obamacare, that they call 'socialist' to scare people, is the rightwing Republican Heritage Foundation plan from the mid 1990s.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Jerry Bourbon
02:43 PM on 09/19/2011
In other words, conservatives want the rivers to catch fire, and want grandmother to die!

And you people wonder why you keep losing elections...
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Mike Cofta
08:11 PM on 09/19/2011
...the only scaremonger here is YOU!!!
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Skookum1
shooting fish in a barrel is sure relaxing
01:31 PM on 09/19/2011
"....rightwing hooliganism may have become legal, respectable and entrenched. "

It already has in Canada, where the GOP-proxy Conservative Party (and at the provincial level, the GOP-proxy BC Liberals, known as LINOs - Liberals In Name Only) have managed to get away with all kinds of abuses of power, and a lockdown on the same. Harper has politicized the formerly neutral position of Governor-General (after abusing and bullying the previous one), himself was found in Contempt of Parliament and should not have been allowed to run for a seat again, but did so and now has a majority (which means more-then-presidential power, with a tame House, with only 39.6% of the popular vote), a lapdog press eager to pitch his remaking of Canada in the Conservatives' own deranged image, with new legislation incoming he's doing away with public funding for political parties (meaning the extirpation of the fledgling Green Party, and a struggle for survival by the New Democrats and Liberals, who hopefully will have the sense to merge), and the appointment to the top diplomatic position abroad, Canadian High Commissioner in London (rivalled only by the position of US Ambassador to the US), to a former Premier most people in his home jurisdiction should be in jail for fraud, collusion, influence peddling, destruction of evidence, court tampering and lots more.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Skookum1
shooting fish in a barrel is sure relaxing
01:36 PM on 09/19/2011
cont) The Supreme Court will be stacked, internet surveillance without warrant legalized, and so much more familiarly nauseous to Canadians and difficult to explain to Americans I'll leave off about it.....but serving notice to you that while those of you in the US fought to take your country back from the Bush-ites that same faction were busy undermining this once-tolerant and accommodating country and turning it into a conservative tyranny. Some of us doubt if there will be another election here, too - it's quite within Harper's power, and within the scope of his overweening ego, to declare a state of emergency so as to hold onto power without an election.....he's broken so many constitutional rules so far it's not like he even has to do that; there are no mechanisms to remove him if he overstays his mandate to spend, none at all. We have a tyranny of the rich minority, and there's f-all we can do about it. His Republican advisors must relish the weakness of the Canadian political system that allowed him to come to power with so little of an actual democratic mandate, and also must relish the sweeping powers a Prime Minister with a majority in the House enjoys. Which is to say, the powers of a king, without any moral responsibility at all.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Skookum1
shooting fish in a barrel is sure relaxing
01:40 PM on 09/19/2011
cont2 - We don;'t have a Woodward or Berrnstein or a Judge Sirica. Our media are under conservative lockdown, our courts hamstrung by privilege and influence, our police a conservative political institution in their own right......the lollipop-and-sunshine view progressive Americans have of Canada is sadly mistaken, and it may be too late for us......if we DID rise up and revolt, the US now has the power (thanks to Harper) to send in troops, without asking, for any reason it wants....

Dirty tricks are an entrenched part of politicking in this country now, from ringers at events and on call-in talkshows, outright statistical lies and wild claims, physical intimidation, ballot-box grabbing (google "Guelph" and "vote mob") and tire-slashing, illegal pamphleteering (the Solicitor-General of British Columbia was elected in a campaign which included non-accounted-for/certified pamphlets making libellious claims against his opponent; he was absolved of any wrongdoing and was allowed to keep his seat, including for a while at least his position - which is that ot top cop in that province). Politics has taken a genuinely ugly turn in Canada, and it's uglier by the minute; but you won't read that in the newspapers, nope no sirree; you have to read about it in alternative zines and in blogspace, because the media are part of The Machine, and happily so, pretending to a moral authority it does not deserve.
02:04 PM on 09/19/2011
Propaganda is not forced upon us by the media --it is welcomed

Because

thinking is hard
CanuckforamultipartyUSA
Let's ask Maher Arar about rendition...
08:52 AM on 09/21/2011
you forgot about how Harper lobbied for FOX news to be allowed to broadcast in Canada. but we have regulations about news broadcasts lying. and how he allowed NRA members to come and lobby members of Parliament before the long gun registry vote. and we would have been in Iraq if Harper had been in power.