Robert Rubin: A VP Choice that Signals "We Will Fix the Economy" for the Middle Class

Vice Presidents rarely impact a presidential election. In this year a wide field of highly qualified people would add strength to governing, but only one, Bill Richardson of New Mexico, would by virtue of being on the ticket dramatically expand the base by ballooning the Latino vote ("For a Change-Turnout-New Voter Election, Richardson should be the choice for VP", May 23, 2008) and add New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada and possibly even Texas and Arizona to the Democratic column, and improve comfort margins in states like New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Ohio. Even Florida might become competitive.

There is another slant to choosing a vice president, and that is to send a signal that words alone cannot achieve. In an election focused on the economy, and, more precisely, an ailing economy that needs major surgery, selecting Bob Rubin powerfully sends that message.

Rubin was first the Director of the National Economic Council and, from that position, convinced the new President, Bill Clinton, that high interest rates were like a tax on the entire economy, both at the individual and societal level, and that demonstrating credibility on deficit reduction would trigger a "virtuous cycle" of falling interest rates that would further reduce the debt (lower interest payments), provide people with more money to spend and spur investment.

The key was both controlling spending and raising revenues through higher tax rates on the wealthy. They did it.

Despite all the denials by the radical righties, it worked; more importantly, the American people know that it worked because they experienced the benefits.

As Treasury Secretary, Rubin deftly managed the Mexican financial crisis despite wails and moans from the radical righties in Congress; and, helped Bill Clinton navigate his way through the government shutdowns Newt Gingrich and his allies engineered with Rubin retaining the "full-faith-and-credit" of the United States of America that Gingrich so cavalierly threatened.

Since much of economics is psychology, at least in the short-run, I bet that if Obama selected Rubin, the dollar would rise on that news alone. Under Bush the dollar lost 50% of its value against the Euro; and, under Bush, for the first time since World War II, the US is not the world's number one economy.

And, I bet, Ben Bernanke over at the Federal Reserve would feel less of a need to raise interest rates that could hurt or delay a housing recovery, if he knew Bob Rubin was going to be Vice-President.

A rising dollar would lower, in dollar terms, the price of oil. Coupled with actual deficit reduction when they take office, the dollar should strengthen further.

Yes, I know, Rubin is a Wall Streeter. He would have to get comfortable with Obama's policies on trade. And, I do not know if he has any entanglements that would make selecting him a mixed signal for an Obama campaign based, as it must be, on change.

But, in addition to the strong signal that the economy not only must, but can and will be fixed, Rubin brings additional strengths: he is "of the Clintons", and thus goes some way to healing those wounds; he is Jewish, a strong constituency already, but, if stronger, could tip states like Florida; he is a very skilled administrator; and, publicly at least, he is rather quiet and uneffacing.

He exudes strength and confidence.

Most importantly, Rubin knows that a strong middle class is the only path to sustained prosperity.

Could we get all that by reappointing him Treasury Secretary? Perhaps, but he has "been-there/done-that", and he probably would not take that job again.

Bob Rubin as a VP choice would be an economic shot-heard-'round-the-world.

Comments

[aofh]

I think the economy needs some long-term, structural changes. Regulation must be brought back into play for the benefit of all. We also need a new conversation about the purpose of economy that shifts the thinking from the market Darwinism currently in vogue. I doubt Rubin is the right guy. I think Rubin is a nostalgic choice because the late 90s were certainly a heady time, but the gains were short term and the long-term consequences dubious (take a closer look at the impact on the states to bypass the taint of Bush incompetence).

[PaulAbrams]

This is the author's response to many of the comments about Rubin.
Could he be President? Of course. The guy was directly involved with most of the key decisions of the Clinton Administration. If you think Hillary could have been President, which I did, but thought Obama would be much better, then how could Rubin not be qualified to be Prez?

He is a Wall Street, corporatist. Yes, he is. But, he is also a team player, as he showed during Clinton Administration and, as I wrote, very self-effacing. I want Obama to lead, regardless of who his VP is. Bob Rubin has zero financial incentive to do anything sleazy, and never seemed the type anyhow.

Obama should pick someone who could be Prez in 2016? Why in the world should that matter? In some ways, a person who is not plotting for his own Presidency is a better choice, although I agree that Cheney is the one example, and that could disprove this point! Seriously, though, that is a criterion I would discard entirely.

Remember, no one will be perfect (probably not any of you either, certainly not me). Rubin is very smart, very much a team player, and very much the architect of the sensible financial policies of the '90s.

[SamEllison]

What team?

[Moose49]

I don't disagree with anything you write here -- yes, he's qualified to be president, yes he was a team player under Clinton, yes, by all accounts he is a nice guy personally -- but I do think there are far better choices out there, including, as noted below, Richardson, Webb, Sebelius, Strickland and Clark.

I would rather have someone whose approach to economic policy is more populist and who is less oriented to Wall Street.

Also, while there is reason to believe he would be a team player as Obama's VP, it's equally important that the person Obama select be wholeheartedly committed to carrying out Obama's agenda should he or she, God forbid, have to take over in mid-term. I'm not convinced that would be the case with Rubin.

[martinspringfield]

Ariana as VP - wow, that is really a good idea!

Rubin would be a fine Sec Treas - balanced out with a strong Labor Sec. A la Clinton. But Obama can find his own Rubin. Clinton did great with Rubin but Obama IMO should find someone for Sec Treas from Silicon Valley, since his sponsors from Silly Valley have been the secret key to his success. There are plenty of smart money people out there who would be able to manage our economy sensibly and yet with an Obama touch. You'll find no one more impressed than me with what Clinton-Rubin-Gore did in the 90s, but that was then, this is now, and I say Obama should be looking at someone like John Doerr for Treas Sec. A brilliant money guy, lifelong Dem, and someone who has seen it all in terms of tech and biz.

As for VP - Clark or Webb. No question. With the oil theft announcement yesterday Iraq is back as the #1 issue of the next five years. We need someone who knows the Pentagon well enough to outflank it.

[Moose49]

Uh... No! Rubin is a corporatist and would directly contradict Obama's message of change.

On the other hand, Bill Richardson would bring a wealth of assets to the ticket -- experience as a governor and energy secretary, extensive foreign policy expertise, and, yes, appeal to the Latino vote. He's got the whole package and his being named number two would give Democrats the further audacity of having an all-minority ticket. Talk about change.

There are plenty of other good VP picks to choose from, including Jim Webb, Kathleen Sebelius, Wesley Clark and Ted Strickland. But please -- no Rubin. And, for that matter, no Nunn, another conservative corporate Democrat.

[JimR]

People have to feel fairly confident that if something ever did happen to the president, than then vice president could take the reins of the country. I do not get that feeling AT ALL with Rubin.

[pmorlan]

A corporate Democrat telling us we need Richardson on the ticket. Yeah, right.

[SeaOats]

Sorry, not buying this at all. We need to get out of Iraq - military credentials are imperative in Obama's VP choice.

Jim Webb's time has come.

[Liberal2]

Right. Democrats need another Zell Miller or Joe Liebermann.

[standard]

"[H]e is "of the Clintons", and thus goes some way to healing those wounds"

NO WAY, JOSE!! That's exactly what rules him out. The Clintons appear desperate to place a Trojan Horse high in the Obama campaign and/or administration, the very last thing Sen. Obama needs. They have no votes to deliver to him but their own and he needs them like that famous fish needs a bicycle.

No. His running mate needs to be a Democratic governor (Bill Richardson or a woman) or someone with military credentials so strong (combat experience with medals to show for it) that McCain's military credentials pale by comparison.

If Obama selects anyone from deep in the Clinton camp instead, he'd just be inviting disaster when Hillary returns from her one-month strategy session ("vacation") and starts coldly exacting her vengeance on Obama for thwarting her Presidential bid.

Should Obama win election, the one exception to an absolute "no Clintonista" staffing policy would be to name her Secretary of Health and Human Services, in which position she could be held personally accountable and from which she could be summarily fired.

Having come this far, Sen. Obama cannot afford to let down his guard.

[AnotherMcIntosh]

Absolutely right on each point.

Obama should not be letting his guard down, and he certainly doesn't need a Trojan horse.

[Zenobius]

This is the first idea posted on HuffPo which would make me sit out the election.

Rubin speaks for Citibank. Just now, with the mortgage crisis, money center banks are not the most popular institutions in America. The few Democrats who know who Rubin is would start to think they should have voted for Hillary. After all, it would be a strong signal that the most we could hope for from Obama would be saving up enough money for the next Republican administration to spend on another war.

Most of the middle class would say huh, and after they heard he was a New York banker, start to plan on voting for McCain.

[martinspringfield]

"This is the first idea posted on HuffPo which would make me sit out the election."

Seriously? Chuck Hagel, Sam Nunn, Mike Bloomberg - they don't give you pause, but Rubin does?

Rubin did a great job in the 90s - probably the best Treas Sec since Hamilton. He should have been Gore's running mate in 2000, not Lieberman. But his time has come and gone.

If it were the economy, stupid, then I'd say find someone from Silicon Valley as your VP (just not Steve Jobs or Larry Ellison, please). But it's not.

It's the war. The economy is just one casualty of this war and not even the most significant one in the long haul, because things like our Constitutional rights and our international strategic and moral leadership are the reason our economy is what it is.

[HamletsMill]

Paul,

Get a life brother. You need to get out to dinner and a movie once in a while. Wall Street in 2008 is totally done as a genesis for ANYONE in any other endeavor in life other than picking out a dress size and going to prison.

We need someone with military credibility to stand up to the powers that be.

Obama - Webb '08, '12

If a populist Administration with Internet scrutiny cannot stand up to the MIC and turn this nation around, I am moving to Costa Rica or New Zealand. Certainly not to the den of iniquity of the brotherhood of thieves of Manhattan.

[memphispaul]

My goodness.
If Rubin were allowed to do to America what he supervised at Citi we would be finished.
If you are calling for Rubin at Treasury then who do you suggest at Commerce? O'Neil?
These folks are primary instruments of our financial systems failure and the collapse of moral hazard,.
Better to bring Volker back into government.

[Totto]

Both Obama and Richardson have good hearts and like each other. Richardson did quite well as a candidate for President and he is a governor, thus available. Rubin's skills would be most useful in trying to resurrect this economy.

[ProudLiberalDan]

Richardson's campaign tanked in no small part because of his gaffes. Put Richardson in the cabinet, not on the ticket.

[XME]

I'm convinced Webb is the way to go.

[libcharisma]

Interesting thoughts but I believe Obama should choose someone who would be an absolutely credible Presidential candidate in 2016.

The Republicans will just come back after an 8yr Democratic rule and reverse all the healing that an Obama Administration would be.

[CindyV]

I read that Sam Nunn is a VP choice de jour. Great way to turn off the LGBT community. Obama runs with "Mr. Don't Ask, Don't Tell."

[Halsey]

OMG!..Rubin? Mr. Goldman Sachs/Citi­group?...o­ne of the many many multi-millionnaires in Bill C's cabinet?..what are you smoking Dude? We have greedy investment banks to thank for the Global credit crisis..thank gawd two bear steans guys have been arrested...tip of the icebert...

Get a grip...Rubin is NOT welcome on my party ticket!..

Richardson..yeah..I like him a lot..but does he have draw? he certainly has experience­..internat­ionally that perhaps obama lacks...I still like (much to my chagrin)...Biden as a running mate...Richardson as Secretary of State. I'm going to see Webb in a Town Hall meeting on Sunday in Los Angeles..I'll let you know how that goes