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If Romney Were President, Osama bin Laden Would Be Alive and Free -- Here's the (Inductive) "Proof"

Posted: 04/ 6/2012 7:11 pm

The capture and killing of Osama bin Laden presents Republicans with a big problem trying to cast President Obama as weak or indecisive or pro-muslim. They have, therefore, run trial balloons to diminish the event, advancing the notion that the operation was no big deal because any president would have done the same thing.

But, there are very strong reasons to believe that, if Mitt Romney had been president, he would almost certainly have not found, nor captured, nor killed Osama bin Laden.

Romney's foreign policy background equals zero. Romney has absolutely no foreign policy experience. None. Zero. President Obama had had only two years in the U.S. Senate but he was on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and that was two years more experience than Mitt Romney has. Moreover, while still an Illinois State Senator, Barack Obama delivered a very thoughtful speech about the Iraq War, taking what at the time was a distinctly minority position even among Democrats. Not only does Romney have no foreign policy experience whatsoever, he has also never demonstrated any independent thought about war and peace and foreign policy. Instead, desperate to gain the acceptance of the neoconistas, he has slavishly followed their mantra.

Unlike President Obama, Romney would not have made bin Laden a priority. When President Obama assumed office, he immediately issued a directive to focus national intelligence and security efforts on finding Osama bin Laden. The rationale animating that directive arose from the president's speech opposing the Iraq War and commitments during his presidential campaign that the U.S. should concentrate its efforts against bin Laden and al-Qaeda. As the then-State Senator Obama had correctly predicted, the Iraq War had drained intelligence resources from the Afghanistan/Pakistan theater. President Bush, on the other hand, had been snookered by bin Laden's statements that the major theater of what they called the "War on Terror" was in Iraq -- exactly what bin Laden wanted: directing the U.S. intelligence and firepower away from himself. Romney was not just a silent supporter, he was a big cheerleader for the Bush Administration's security and military strategy.

Absent Obama's clear directive and commitment, it is not likely that bin Laden would have been found or pursued.

Mitt Romney would not have issued that directive, nor focused the intelligence agencies on the bin Laden. He had no prior statements suggesting he would do that, and would have had Bush national security personnel as advisers who also did not make bin Laden's capture a priority. Romney, that is, would not have altered Bush policies. During his 2008 campaign, he supported Bush's priorities every chance he had. When asked about Osama bin Laden, Bush famously said that he did not even think about him anymore.

Romney would have had many of the same advisers as Bush President Bush had had a clear opportunity to get bin Laden at Tora Bora. He was asked to send 800 Army rangers to surround the area bin Laden had been located. For reasons that remain mysterious the Bush Administration refused. Romney would have many of the same neoconistas advising him.

Romney talks repeatedly about outsourcing military strategy decisions to "the generals". Let us assume, however, that despite lack of focus, despite not prioritizing bin Laden or al-Qaeda, fortune smiled and bin Laden's whereabouts magically had become known. Would Romney have ordered his capture and killing?

The answer, again, is "no." Neoconista mantra has been that the Commander-in-Chief follows exactly what the generals tell him. This position arose initially from the Vietnam War. They defended (but, of course, did not volunteer for) the Vietnam War, criticizing President Johnson for insisting on choosing targets himself (the Commander-in-Chief determining both the military and the political cost/benefit analysis of a target), and contend to this day that we could have "won" Vietnam but for LBJ's intervention. As Chris Matthews points out in his book, Jack Kennedy: Elusive Hero, LBJ's predecessor had felt deliberately misled about the Bay of Pigs, and thus did not trust the generals or the CIA to adhere to his directives without taking control himself.

President George W. Bush defended himself against changes in Iraq War policy, consistently hiding behind "the generals on the ground," and outsourced defending those policies in front of the Congress and the American people to General Petraeus. When asked about timetables for withdrawal from Iraq in 2008, and from Afghanistan now, Romney similarly skirts responsibility by admitting that he is going to do what the generals tell him to do.

By contrast, even before the raid that captured bin Laden, President Obama had listened to, but not slavishly followed, the generals advice on Afghanistan and, later, on Libya. Mitt Romney has shown not even a scintilla of independent thought about foreign policy or military strategy.

Almost all national security advisers were against the raid. According to insider accounts, the generals advised President Obama against the commando raid and favored, if anything, bombing bin Laden's presumed hideout in Abbottabad, Pakistan. Recall that Romney would have been surrounded by many of the same advisers that refused to act at Tora Bora, and the Bush Administration had criticized candidate Obama for his aggressive remarks about acting alone in Pakistan on intelligence.

With no evidence of an independent thought about such matters, and with repeated commitments to do what the generals tell him, it is thus highly unlikely that Romney would have acted at all.

Little to gain from Bombing the complex -- the lukewarm suggestion of the advisers. But, let us assume that the neoconista political types around Romney thought it would be very cool if he could say he, at least, had tried to get bin Laden, despite having downplayed its importance. Romney might have liked that since he could then show he was a "tough guy", not just a "marvelous" coddled wimp. Would he then have followed the lukewarm advice of the generals to bomb the complex?

Almost certainly not. There was not much to gain. Romney had never uttered any dissent from the Bush line that capturing bin Laden was not very important. The intelligence community was not even certain bin Laden was there. Bombing would have provided no military intelligence by destroying the complex. There would have been no way to verify that bin Laden had been killed... indeed, there would have been no means to verify that bin Laden had even been there. Moreover, bin Laden may well have survived. There was some concern there was a secure underground bunker that would have required a massive bomb. The Bush Administration had tried an air strike against al-Qaeda's No. 2, Ayman al-Zawahiri, and had tried to take out Saddam Hussein the same way at the outset of the Iraq War, and had failed.

Thus, if Mitt Romney had defeated John McCain for the nomination in 2008, and the Romney-Palin ticket had won the 2008 elections, there likely would be no closure on that chapter of American history that began with the neoconistas ignoring clear signs of the threatened 9/11 attack.

Under a Romney Administration, Osama bin Laden probably would be alive and free... and, the U.S. auto industry would be dead, playing directly into the hands of al-Qaeda on both scores.

It strains logic and credibility that Mitt Romney, with no foreign policy experience at all, no history of independent thought about it, would have had the conviction and the guts to make such a huge decision that departed so dramatically from what almost all of his advisers counseled.

One has to wonder if, deep in the recesses of their minds, Republicans really wishes that Osama bin Laden had not been captured and killed, because it robs them of one of their favorite fake story-lines.

If Mitt Romney had been president, their wish would have come true.

 

Follow Paul Abrams on Twitter: www.twitter.com/pabrams2001

The capture and killing of Osama bin Laden presents Republicans with a big problem trying to cast President Obama as weak or indecisive or pro-muslim. They have, therefore, run trial balloons to dimin...
The capture and killing of Osama bin Laden presents Republicans with a big problem trying to cast President Obama as weak or indecisive or pro-muslim. They have, therefore, run trial balloons to dimin...
 
 
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midenham
Take my guns? You MUST have a hole in your head!
05:50 PM on 04/30/2012
Bush should campaign with obama to give credibility to obama's handling of the War on Terror, since every "success" that obama takes credit for was following the timeline and using the Intel that Bush had in place...and that obama fought AGAINST. Now he asks if Romney would have pulled the trigger on the OBL raid. Please, acting like obama is a brave leader. OBL's whereabouts were brought to him on a platter, from intel gathered during water boarding and he had NO options other than to go get him. Unlike Clinton having intel on his whereabouts and not getting him 3 times and now acting like an authority on the matter.

Had obama been truly bold, we would have held that compound until NATO or the UN had a chance to come investigate how much cooperation OBL was getting from the government of Pakistan.
Obama needs to publicly thank GW for making him look like a Commander in Chief.
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hstdem
In search of the 4th Estate
10:24 AM on 05/01/2012
No- Bush dropped the ball and said it didn't matter where bin Laden was. To Bush, Iraq and Sadaam were more important.

Obama renewed the diligent search and succeeded where Bush did not.
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midenham
Take my guns? You MUST have a hole in your head!
12:17 PM on 05/01/2012
Don't let facts get in the way of your opinion. Bush said he wasn't as concerned about OBL's whereabouts, since he wasn't in a command situation. Read the interview you are misquoting him from. I already won this debate from Abrams himself in a different post.
I am giving you the link to read it yourself.
http://atheism.about.com/b/2004/10/14/does-bush-care-about-osama-bin-laden.htm
08:56 AM on 04/29/2012
What a dangerous narrative. Prediciting exactly what someone would or would not do! I know one thing, using this approach. Romney would not give back the Winston Churchill bust in the white house, denouncing colonialism, and the WW 1 & 2 legacy on our planet that we live by.
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hstdem
In search of the 4th Estate
10:26 AM on 05/01/2012
Well- since the Churchill bust was a loan and was replaced by one of a true American hero, that's too bad Romeny wouldn't do the same.

As for "denouncing colonialism, and the WW 1 & 2 legacy on our planet that we live by," President Obama NEVER did those things.

Nice try, though.
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sedc72
4th Gen. Vet., DC Native
12:23 PM on 04/09/2012
I still say, ANY republican candidate who speaks about going to war with ANYBODY better damn well tell us WHICH ONE one THEIR children is going to fight for the ENTIRE TIME! I'm tired of politicians wanting SOMEONE ELSE'S CHILD or LOVED ONE to fight and die in wars, but NEVER THEIR OWN.
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Paul Abrams
06:16 PM on 04/09/2012
I have spoken those exact words!
08:02 AM on 04/09/2012
In Romney's own words, "If I told you what I was going to do, I couldn't get elected."
It's a fact, he said it in an unguarded moment, and I believe him. He should not ever be elected.
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midenham
Take my guns? You MUST have a hole in your head!
05:47 PM on 04/30/2012
Right. He should lie like the rest of them. Obama said W's 3.7 trillion in debt in 8 years was treasonous and Obama's only 4 years is going to result in 4.6 trillion IF we throw out Obama Care.

Where is a link to that unguarded statement claim?
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AlfredE69
Liberty Lovin' Tree Hugger
07:09 AM on 04/09/2012
Tell Obama to end his wars.
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rltballer
why is equality difficult for some to understand?
08:43 AM on 04/09/2012
in case you didn't know there is only 1 war going on right now. It was started under bush.
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AlfredE69
Liberty Lovin' Tree Hugger
06:51 PM on 04/09/2012
Untrue. Illegal wars in Afghanistan, Yemen, Pakistan, and Somalia.

End un-unequality. Women should also have the right to register for Selective Service just like males.
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ssb752
Married to Betty Jo Bialosky (Nancy)
06:45 AM on 04/09/2012
Mitt is Bush Lite. His handlers know how important it is to their power that the mindless masses have their Boogiemen like Bin Laden to keep the Fear-o-meter up. Coupled with suppressing the economy for most of those mindless masses is the other half the electability equation. Oh well, war is really good for a few businesses. Trickle down anyone?
bichn
There ain't no rest for the wicked.
05:08 AM on 04/09/2012
In Romney's defense, he did admit that if he told us what he would really do he would not get elected. So if he does have any opinions or policy plans with regard to foreign policy he is keeping them quiet lest they be held against him come election time. But, hey, he really likes grits.
12:46 AM on 04/09/2012
As an airline captain at the time of 9/11, it is inconceiveable to me how any pilot could NOT vote for Obama. Bush said he could care less about Bin Laden, and gave up on gettting him despite having said he would get him. I prefer people who actually set goals, stick to them, and get the job done. That can only be applied to Obama, and not McCain, or any other Republican. It was a slap in the face to those of us in aviation that Bush and his cohorts simply gave up on killing the SOB who caused such death and destruction to our country and our profession.

Any pilot worthy of the name should be voting for Obama on that FACT alone.
11:23 AM on 04/09/2012
I know it's easy to be misled when reading Mr. Abrams' posts, but his conclusions and characterizations are wrong. Bush didn't say that he could care less about Bin Laden and he did not give up on finding him. The comment that Abrams' alludes to was made in a press conference where Bush was talking about all their efforts to dismantle Al Qaeda. If you (or even Mr. Abrams) take the time to read the full transcript, you'll see that Bush was emphasizing the importance of removing the organization surrounding Bin Laden - killing the funding and supplies, taking out the sense of hierarchy and order, etc. Once you do that, Bin Laden is just one man on the run. Bush's first priority when he gave his press conference was in protecting the country from another terrorist attack, not in bringing one lone person to justice. But that doesn't mean that he gave up on finding Bin Laden or didn't think it was important in the long run - which is why the intelligence gathering efforts continued under Bush up until Obama gave the order to go in and kill Bin Laden.
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Paul Abrams
04:00 PM on 04/27/2012
wow, is that a web of rationalizations if I ever heard it! First of all, he could have had bin Laden, but refused to send 800 army rangers to Tora Bora. Second, he said that he didn't even think about bin Laden any more. Third, he diverted our entire effort (2/3 of the intelligence effort in Afghanistan went to Iraq months before the invasion) to Iraq, frequently citing bin Laden's comments that that is where the real battle was...falling hook, line and sinker for a brilliant bin Laden ploy.

Moreover, Romnehy would not even go into business without the risk being completely removed. He has ZERO foreign policy experience. The generals opposed the raid. What evidence is there in Romnehy's entire past that he would have had the judgment or the cahones to order the raid? Z-E-R-O.
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10:49 PM on 04/08/2012
Of course, Mitt Romney has no independent thought about war, peace and foreign policy. He can't get passed that he just really, really, really wants to be President and not much else. His idea of coping with Bin Laden would have been more like gutting his pension and firing him.
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Peter Combs
Amused by the illogical..no, NOT a Republican
10:47 PM on 04/08/2012
You seem to draw an awful lot of conclusions from thin air...kinda silly...Oddly most of them based on what GW would have done. Meanwhile Obama is still doing exactly what Bush was doing...

Actually Obama did nothing without the advice if his Generals..and has used their advice repeatedly as his reasoning. Including the SUrge in Afganistan.

"Once Wary, Obama Now Relies on Petraeus" NYT's headline....Sept 10 2010....
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/17/world/17prexy.html?pagewanted=all

And as we all know now, this decision by Obama has been a colossal failure and getting worse...

Broad assumptions based on little fact with conclusions drawn from vague thougths and personal beilfs based on emotional interpetations is no way to envision what anyone would do.

As for Bush's comment "I do not even think of him anymore"...its fairly obvious that in fact a great deal was going on concerning Bin Lauden, after all the Intel that was essential in Capturing Usama came from the Bush years...Leon Panetta following the killing repeatedly gave thanks to the mountian of work done from 2002 to 2008....
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talyn530
Aggressively Progressive!
06:05 AM on 04/09/2012
"Broad assumptions based on little fact with conclusions drawn from vague thougths and personal beilfs based on emotional interpetations is no way to envision what anyone would do."

Interesting points! Yet none of the considerations you raise seem relevant when you and your ilk are applying them to President Obama. Why should Governor Romney, who has shown that he will say and do anything to be president, be afforded the benefit...while President Obama, who has said and done EXACTLY what he said he would, be criticized? Further, it is true that some of the policies that President Bush's team put in place are still in effect. However, if you think that President Obama is doing "exactly" what President Bush was doing...then you need to broaden your reading list.
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Peter Combs
Amused by the illogical..no, NOT a Republican
09:23 AM on 04/09/2012
Obama has doen exactly what he said? really? are you trying to make me laugh?

Bush tax Cuts? Gitmo? Focussing on and Fixing Afganistan? Raise the Minimum Wage? Streamline Financial Aide for students? Re-regulate the Banks? Enact a windfall profits tax on Big Oil? Curtail the influence of Big Pharma? End revolving door lobbysist? End the practice of Behind CLosed Door Legislation?

Obama promised all of these things...so far we have a Healht PLan thats unsustanable if it passes the Supreme Court and repealed DADT...

Obama is a good talker, but so far..little else.
11:31 AM on 04/09/2012
It's obvious that the left is trying to cling to Obama's take down of Bin Laden in order to show that he is competent when it comes to foreign policy. Mr. Abrams' post is just an example of the liberal political machine advancing this narrative. However, when facts get in the way, their solution is to ignore them - such as the fact that Obama has continued the bulk of Bush's policies, or the fact that the intelligence gathering efforts that led to Bin Laden's death were started during Bush's presidency, or even the fact that we had the luxury of searching for one person because the Bush Administration first dismantled Al Qaeda as a terrorist organization.
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talyn530
Aggressively Progressive!
04:25 PM on 04/09/2012
Well, we'd love to cling to something that Governor Romney's accomplished. Since he won't take credit for his healthcare plan...and putting people out of work is currently not very attractive, then we'll have to grade him on a curve. Let's see...oh! well he did do a good job managing the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City...if you overlook all the scandal!
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demisfine
Often correct, NEVER right.
08:42 PM on 04/08/2012
Thank you.
Unfortunately, the voters who select Romney in 2012 will only be doing so because he has an (R) next to his name.
Qualifications, experience, policy, goals DO NOT MATTER.
This is no longer an election of choices.
This is about following orders to re-instate the way things were.
That's what it has devolved into, as designed by Karl Rove.
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Peter Combs
Amused by the illogical..no, NOT a Republican
10:49 PM on 04/08/2012
Ohh give it a rest....and the D next to Obama's didnt get him elected?
Or was he elected due to his two years (out of 6) as a rookie Senator? His total lack of any legislative achievments? His voting Present 135 times? Perhaps his two Auto biographys?
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talyn530
Aggressively Progressive!
06:29 AM on 04/09/2012
...and what qualifies Governor Romney? Being born with a silver spoon in his mouth? His ducking out on serving his country during a time of war? His taking that wealth and priviledge and using it to raid and pillage distressed companies? His blatant disregard for the ten's of thousands of American worker's that he fired to turn a profit? Shall I go on...?
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rltballer
why is equality difficult for some to understand?
08:57 AM on 04/09/2012
Who is Romney? It appears he is anything the extreme right wants. It appears he is anti gay, anti woman right to.choose, anti middle class and pro lower taxes on the super rich. Anyone that is for that is not pro America.
06:32 PM on 04/07/2012
Wow, ha ha ha ha ha, thanks for the laugh Huffing up dopes.
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andyriveria
marrano
09:11 PM on 04/08/2012
why republicans have a long history of destroying the american position in the world and making our country weak militarily.

it is just a continuation of that policy
09:32 PM on 04/08/2012
Wow, you're kidding me right? A some quick research will confirm the exact opposite. As a matter of fact democrats are what you accuse Republicans to be.

I know it may seem strange to you now as I too thought it was the contrary, but I've looked into it.

http://youtu.be/bnWVzGQA-1k Just a little taste
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Peter Combs
Amused by the illogical..no, NOT a Republican
10:55 PM on 04/08/2012
YEah..Reagan really weakened us with the Soviet Union, China...and oh yeah Iran, who released the Hostages within one hour of being sworn in....after having held them for how many years.

Kennedy escalating us and then Johnson did a great job for the USA...ohh yeah!. and WHo ended the war then? NIXON did...and who cried like a little girl a few years later about our Malaise? Carter did..thats who.

With the exception of Iraq, Democrats have led the USA into every major war since 1915...take a history class.
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09:29 PM on 04/08/2012
Romney could not catch a cold, Bin Laden, pleaseeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
09:46 PM on 04/08/2012
Wha hah a, nice comeback.

Forget that it took military intel, the risk of skilled men that the gov't invested millions of dollars into. Forget that the it was the SEAL team that was on the ground, trained and hardened.

To not give the go ahead to eliminate Bin Laden would be political suicide.

Again, nice comeback.

It's funny how the current president keeps comparing himself to Republican Presidents.
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Peter Combs
Amused by the illogical..no, NOT a Republican
10:57 PM on 04/08/2012
and they caught him ONLY because in Intel gatherd in 2002 ...remember? the code name of the Courier...without that, the NSA Cell Phone Tap would have had NO flag when it was mentioned in 2010......
04:29 PM on 04/07/2012
This article of he would have, could have - should extend to Obama as well. If OBAMA is reelected he will try to turn America in to a Socialistic country; will try to make America a poor country by increasing the current extreme level of $16 Trillion to more like $25 Trillion.. OBAMA has no experience with economy. He will crush businesses.. With Romney none of this will happen.
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Paul Abrams
02:09 PM on 04/08/2012
most of the $16Trillion was run up by Reagan, the first Bush and mostly the second Bush, who left President Obama with a deficit of $1.5Trillion, a shattered economy that made the middle class poor, robbing them of their major investment (their home values).
Romney will make it worse--no tax increases to reduce the debt requires huge cuts in spending, and that will lead to further economic contraction. Want proof--look at the austerity countries, and see how well they are doing.
In fact, Romney has told us he will follow ALL the policies guaranteed to create a failed nation--see the book, "Why Nations Fail", lauded by conservative AND liberal economists alike.
11:47 AM on 04/09/2012
"most of the $16Trillion was run up by Reagan, the first Bush and mostly the second Bush"

What strange, silly logic. Are you seriously comparing 4 years of Obama to 16 years of Republican presidents? Obama is outpacing each of those three presidents both in terms of the increase in real dollars and in the increase of public debt as a percentage of GDP.

Plus, you don't seem to understand the difference between mandatory spending and discretionary spending. The bulk of our debt increase is due to the fact that we have to pay for social welfare programs instituted back in the 1960s at the behest of the progressives.
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demisfine
Often correct, NEVER right.
08:45 PM on 04/08/2012
Just plain wrong.
The middle class in not gone because of unions.
It is gone because greedy CEOs outsourced union jobs to overseas corporations.
Now, those very same CEOs would like to repatriate the jobs they took from union workers at "right to work" wages, essentially bring the third world factories here.
That means living in the US at third world wages.
Is that what you want for the US?
Because that's what the Bain Capitol President thinks we need.
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Midnight Cry
Tax Reform Now!
01:35 PM on 04/07/2012
On one of the news programs like 20/20, they disclosed a video that Osama released putting out a hit on Obama. Shortly thereafter, the Seals came in and took him out. It was pretty simple, and I think that we knew where he was for some time....
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Paul Abrams
01:51 PM on 04/07/2012
we did, for about 8 months, but it was not with certainty. Had it been Bush, they would have gone it right before the November elections, to try to stem the tide of the tea party. But, Obama is not Bush. He acted in the best interests of the country, not his party.
01:29 PM on 04/07/2012
Pure Speculation. If pure speculation is the mode of operation for the Obama campaign, then I, as a member of the majority independent "party" will have nothing to do with him.

Was killing the old frail Man, already imprisoned in that house on the third floor, worth the fallout and increased dangers to living US Troops that have resulted from the fallout of illegally invading a sovereign country, no matter the costs? Obama was reckless, and only thinking of the Political rewards which he promptly boasted on National TV, to the great embarrassment of the Pakistanis.

Maybe the rewards of the intelligence bonanza were worth the fallout, but I do not credit Obama, but the brave US Troops that did it. Obama is no great warrior!

I never wanted any of these wars and Obama has not gotten us out of Afghanistan.
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andyriveria
marrano
09:14 PM on 04/08/2012
look at the hue and cry among the republicans to bomb iran
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talyn530
Aggressively Progressive!
06:46 AM on 04/09/2012
Well...if you truly are an independent and that is all it takes to lose your vote...I feel sorry for you. Especially when I think about how President Bush and the entire Republican Party milked the whole 9/11 disaster to the point where they were even speaking ill of the families who lost loved one's...for having the sheer audacity to criticize their politization of that tragedy. President Obama made a very daring call to get bin Laden, it worked out, he came on television and informed the nation and the world. There was no bombast, no strutting, just the facts! Besides, everyone knows that it ain't bragging, if it's true!