Sarah Palin May Really Win the Debate: What Biden Must Do to Prevent It

[Addendum since posting: Biden ought to wonder aloud if the windfall profits tax on oil companies in Alaska ought to be applied nationally. And, if Palin distinguishes it by stating they have no income tax, then aren't the rest of us, who pay for Alaska's oil, actually subsidizing Alaska with increased prices at the pump? That would be nice for the country to hear].

Sarah Palin may win the Vice-Presidential debate. This is not spin. Nor is it a matter of low expectations. The Republicans are doing a masterful job of lulling the Obama campaign into a false sense of security that she is very difficult to teach, and that he will win hands-down.

Yes, Joe Biden oozes gravitas, and in troubling times that can be appealing. And, yes, Palin projects school-girl naïveté. Her comments about world leaders all being "foreigners", that she has foreign policy experience because Putin rears his head and flies into the airspace in Alaska is not much different than the Miss Teen South Carolina who was an internet smash, rambling about "US-Americans." At least the latter was only 19, and not running for Vice-President with a 72 year-old man with a history of melanoma.

But, how much more clueless is Palin than was George W Bush running against incumbent Governor Ann Richards or Al Gore? And, they both had the same teacher: Karl Rove.

Biden does not need coaching on the issues. What he does need is a strategy for the debate. How is he going to handle the following advantages for Palin that play into her winning the debate:

1. The press is cowed. By all rights Palin should be asked to address examples of her naïveté. After all, she is running to be a heartbeat, or brain metastasis, away from the Presidency. But, what can they ask Biden in this respect that would make the debate seem "fair"? Nothing, really. Paradoxically, then, Biden's expertise may prevent Palin's naïveté from being exposed.

Gwen Ifill, the moderator, bright as she is, will not wish to embarrass Palin. It is uncomfortable to watch someone self-destruct. As absurd a Vice-Presidential choice as she is, the natural human emotion of not wishing to be present as someone else self-destructs will supersede the rational conclusion that it is for this very reason that she needs to be exposed.

Moreover, the McCain campaign has already redefined a "gotcha question" as anything that Palin flubs. And, since Palin knows almost nothing substantive about anything, any question that probes beyond the rambling nonsense is deemed "gotcha." A voter asks her about Pakistan, and she rambles herself into invading it, and that's "gotcha."

She will never be asked the one question she cannot answer: "explain."

And, never forget: the press tries to keep the race close, so that people will tune in. Hence, there is a vested interested in not embarrassing Palin.

2. Palin is being prepped to repeat just a few simple answers. When George W Bush debated Ann Richards, Rove had him just repeat 4 simple messages regardless of the question. Palin will toss in the words, "maverick", "reform", and "against the special interests" over-and-over again.

It will not matter whether she is coherent on most questions so long as she seems to be so on one. They will choose energy, and she will come back to that because it does touch each of us, as well as our whole economy. She will seem to be speaking knowledgeably, and will likely throw in a few details to demonstrate, as John McCain said, that "she knows more about energy than anyone in the country."

If Palin sounds coherent about one subject, people will impute similar coherence to her other answers, assuming they were not listening closely enough to what is actually gibberish. Moreover, by restricting her to a few simple, repeated answers, she may not wander off into the wild blue yonder, invading Pakistan and shouting at Putin's plane overhead in the process.

3. Much of Palin's nonsense is feel-good stuff. While Biden may have spoken knowledgeably, for example, about a particular foreign policy matter, it will come across as ponderous. By contrast Palin, unburdened from any expertise, will spout some stuff that feels good--"foreign leaders?", "sure, just bring'em to the United States, introduce them to ordinary Americans, and they will see the world as we do".

Nonsense, of course. But, which feels better, Biden or Palin?

Biden may lay out their plans for energy independence. Good, well-thought out, highly praised, with a strong financial commitment to back it up, and windfall profits' taxes to help pay for it. Makes sense, but, again, ponderous.

And, Biden will repeat "ladies and gentlemen" at least 100 times as he introduces and concludes his answers, boring everyone to tears.

Palin will respond by offering us Alaska (as if it is hers to offer, and as if the VP has to be from Alaska to exploit its resources, but people will hear that she has something unique to offer them, and they already know Alaska is part of the United States).

Again, which feels better?

What Democrats, especially like Biden, forget is this: People rarely recall what you say. What they remember is how you made them feel. If Palin is simple and makes them feel good, and Biden is ponderous, they will go for Palin.

So long as Gwen Ifill does not say, "explain" when Palin spouts nonsense--and it was only that question from Katie Couric that revealed her shallowness--Palin wins.

If Palin makes people feel good, if she demonstrates one area of knowledge above the 8th grade level, then the spin will take care of the rest of it. "The questions were 'gotcha'." "Biden was not pressed as hard". "She showed herself capable of dealing with energy, the nation's #1 problem."

4. Biden is cowed, and getting poor 'advice' from the media. Sarah Palin's gender and her cluelessness have encouraged the so-called pundits to paint Biden into a corner, that he must be especially gentle with her for fear of coming across as sexist, and thus turning off blue-collar women voters.

The first mistake is assuming that the goal is to 'win' the debate. It is not. The goal is to expose Palin for what she is, and thus make voters properly uncomfortable about her when they enter that voting booth. It is a perception that needs to be built over time.

Biden need not be snide or condescending (which would come across as sexist), and he ought not make the conclusory statements "she just does not understand." But, he can very firmly take the argument to her, individually, as McCain's representative and replacement, and as a symbol of the Republican brand. It may be that the immediate post-debate reaction is that Biden was too tough, or played 'gotcha,' but the goal is the longer term exposure of the absurdity of Palin.

When Palin refers to her executive experience, Biden should counter that George Bush said exactly the same thing in 2000, that Bush was Governor of Texas, population 24 million, for 6 years, and look at the mess he has caused: from Katrina, to Iraq, to the financial meltdown. She's been Governor of Alaska for 2 years, population 675,000. This is not nasty, nor sexist. It is a simple statement of fact. He should not shy away from it.

When Palin references her and McCain being "mavericks" that she will do repeatedly, Biden should respond with key topline issues on which they are not:

-An economic philosophy of deregulation, non-enforcement, and high risk poker with other peoples' money.
-Opposing healthcare as a right of all Americans, period.
-Continued taxcuts for the wealthiest Americans while at war and with gaping deficits.
-Privatizing social security
-Tax loopholes for oil companies, no money for alternative energy.
-An open checkbook, open-ended commitment to Iraq.
-Opposition in principle to a minimum wage law.

And, Biden should mention that she agreed first to cooperate fully with investigations into her conduct as Governor, that the McCain campaign is now shutting down. George Bush resisted oversight and accountability for 8 years. If she is not going to be accountable and transparent now, this will be another 4 years of hiding from the American people. Again, this is not nasty or sexist. It asks her to be accountable.

When Palin claims expertise on energy, Biden ought to emphasize that, whatever expertise she has is related to oil and gas, the country needs a far broader approach. Cite the Obama-Biden plan. He then ought to say: "we've had two oilmen in the White House for the last 8 years, and look what it got us," and "we should be concerned if the expertise in the White House favors oil over alternative energy sources, and if the VP candidate only recently admitted that global warming was in part man-made."

Reducing her claimed stature as an "expert" on energy will reduce the likelihood that viewers will give her a "pass" on the gobbledygook she confabulates on other subjects.

On creationism in the schools, Palin will invoke "freedom of speech" and "teaching the controversy." This is feel-good stuff, and must be countered by feel-not-so-good reality. Make it an economic competition issue...Biden should say he believes in evolution, and that there is no scientific controversy, just science vs. religion. If we try to get non-science taught as science in the schools, our children will fall further behind their competitors around the world. Parents can teach their children their religious beliefs at home, and teach that controversy if that is what they believe.

On foreign policy Biden should challenge McCain, and let her try defending McCain. She will get bollixed. He ought to mention, again, McCain's strategy of not sitting down with the Spanish Prime Minister. "John McCain does not want to talk to our enemies, and he seems not to want to speak with our friends either."

Let Palin try to defend McCain.

On Iraq, Biden should contrast the general positions: an open-checkbook, open-ended commitment to Iraq vs. a phased withdrawal by a date-certain that limits our exposure.

Biden ought to speak in grand principles, not ponderous detail: that we must restore our prestige abroad, as Barack Obama showed he could do with his summer tour, and John McCain has shown no ability to do. That we are most successful when we support and listen to our friends, talk but make clear our positions with our enemies, try in all cases for negotiated solutions, and remember what Yitzhak Rabin said: "you make peace with your enemies, not with your friends." (And, he should quote Rabin by name).

Bet that Palin is going to suggest that she has as much, or more, experience than Obama. Biden should counter that Obama has been in public office for 16 years, that he has been vetted by the American people, that he has dealt with issues of national security, and been grilled on foreign and domestic policy for 20 months now, and was chosen by more than 18 million people to be the nominee. Biden should add: "Governor Palin was chosen by one person, impulsively, and has not had a single press conference where she could be asked followup questions."

Unless Biden sticks to principles and not ponderous details, and unless he takes her on and holds her accountable -- contrary to the punditocracy that says he should leave her alone--unless he realizes that he is not there to score debating points, but to expose Palin for the shallow, uninformed person she is, that Palin will win the debate and her stature will be resurrected.

One more point: on abortion. Biden ought to say that he is Catholic, but he believes that an individual woman should have to right to determine whether to carry to term a pregnancy that arose from rape, whereas Governor Palin would have the GOVERNMENT force the woman to keep that child. That is not a place for the government.

Hopefully, Joe will avoid his "ladies and gentlemens," will speak in grand principles and not ponderous detail, and will not be shy about holding her accountable. If he does not, Palin will win the debate.

Heaven help us.

Comments

[ArchAngel]

Brilliant!

You have correctly guessed that the Republicans are trying to make this a high school popularity contest:

Quarterback and Head Cheerleader versus the nerds!

And it still may work...

[polfan]

tTis is a thoughtful intelligent post .Hopefully is has been forwarded to the Biden camp.

[greencosmopolitan]

i think Biden should just speak when he is spoken to and just let Palin destroy herself. Honestly if he directs any of his rants at her..then it's going to come off like he was a bully or whatever other way the GOP can spin the political wheel in their favor.

& yes call out Palin on her bull and just state everything as a fact rather than a direct attack.

[YOHY]

I hope Joe uses that well-turned phrase at the approprate time during the debate: "I'm rubber, you're glue, whatever you say bounces off me and sticks to McCain and you."

[123zeke]

We had a chance for peace and prosperity in this country with a Clinton/Biden ticket. Now we are up to our necks in the worst depression/recession ever. People do not trust any of the candidates. We may love Joe, but his presidential votes were few. McCain seems to be a nowhere man, Obama is scary, considering his past contacts and his books, and his inability to connect with real people, Sarah Palin is being watched by the entire world so how can she not screw up?

[greencosmopolitan]

no offense but if i was you i'd reconsider the whole aspect of obama not being able to connect to the people...he is so much more relateable then McCain and his 7 houses and 13 cars. Obama only owns one car and one house...now who is more relateable to you?

[Law35]

Who are "real" people in your view? "We had a chance for peace and prosperity?" The "real" people have spoken and our choice is Obama/Biden. If, at this point, after hearing everything he's said, and watching what he's done, you still don't want to vote for him, you might want to ask yourself why? We're all supposed to be Americans and looking out for the best interests of this country. How is he different?

Obama/Biden 08

[Law35]

Who are "real" people to you? Sarah Palin will screw up, not because the world is watching, but because she's not ready.
"We had a chance for peace and prosperity in this country with a Clinton/Biden ticket" What the "real" people have said, is that they want an Obama/Biden ticket. If, after everthing he's said and done, you still find him "scary" maybe you should ask yourself why. Seems to me, you'd be scared with a Palin/McSame ticket.

Obama/Biden 08

[old-democrat]

Obama/McCain is this the best we can do?

[All in All]

1.Sen.Biden could start of the Debate by talking about His Wife & family (no-matter what Question is asked of Him), at the same-time Sen.Biden could referance Gov.Palin in a way that shows the Respect that Sen.Biden has for all Women/People.

If Sen.Biden does this in His Own way during the beginning of the Debate He would be taking most of the negative thoughts & spin off of & out of the Debate, during and after the Debate. Since People would be able to see & hear the respect that Sen.Biden has for all People (Women included) "Sometimes no-matter what should be seen isn't always seen by some People, unless it's right in-front of them and the rest of Us to see & hear during that/any given moment of time"!

[Noracharles1995]

Yes, I want to hear about grandkids about commuting home to Delaware to be with his 2 young sons after they lost their mother, and about the Violence Against Women Act. I want to hear him mention how any time his boys called when they were little they were to be put straight through to their father, even if he was meeting a foreign leader or at a commitee hearing. IMO this is the way to respond to someone who returned to work 3 days after having a baby with a major health condition.

[123zeke]

Just remember Folks, Washington DC is full of people who have had passports for years, have travelled all over the world, have experience with foreign governments, have experience with our own government, have served this country for decades, ......AND LOOK AT THE MESS WE ARE IN!!!

What harm could it do to let Sarah, or Barack run our country as inexperienced as they both are?

[OneLiberalLady]

On your last point, Mr. Abrams: Sarah Palin is not just against abortion she is against it in the case of a rape or incest (or both). She also caused her municipality (Wasilia) to charge rape victims for their rape kits. She is also against the morning after pill contraceptive (Plan B). She is against fact based sex ed. She is a real extremist on this issue and way out of touch with the American people.

[Palindrone]

I really hope when Palin starts spouting about earmarks, Biden does something like this:

"My friend John McCain always tells the same line when he talks about earmarks. Maybe you've heard it...

It goes something like this:

One state wanted three million dollars of your tax money to study the DNA of harbour seals. Now I don't know if that was a paternity issue or a criminal issue... but maybe the Governor of Alaska can tell us today, cos that was her earmark."

[Clavis]

Interesting stuff. Good thoughts. I liked it alot. Thanks!

[All in All]

Part 1
________________________________________________

Someone forward this Article to Sen.Obama-Biden Campaign!

"Biden does not need coaching on the issues. What he does need is a strategy for the debate. How is he going to handle the following advantages for Palin that play into her winning the debate",indeed.

If I may add to the advice already spoken of, by saying that Sen.Biden would be well advised to start the Debate by "Putting out the flame that has been & is already lit around this upcoming Debate of/between Sen.Biden & Gov.Palin":

[cgr]

Excellent post. Biden's debate strategy, imo, should be short, swift and sweet. Her Slipperyness slides right past the actual subject of the (many, many) questions she has no answer for, and thus far has gotten away with a lot of this.

Example, her statement to Katie Couric: ""I'm not going to solely blame all of man's activities on changes in climate. Because the world's weather patterns are cyclical. And over history we have seen change there. But kind of doesn't matter at this point, as we debate what caused it. The point is: it's real; we need to do something about it."

Wouldn't the obvious next question be, "If we don't know what caused it, how do we go something about it?"

I know brevity isn't Biden's long suit, but in the short-answer debate form, short and sweet and dead-on precision is his strongest hope. Simple, straight answers given, her squiggly non-answers not allowed to pass un-challenged. The contrast between crisp, intelligent informed answers and vague verbal garble will be enough.

[All in All]

Right on point, Your Climate Change Example is a perfect example of how Sen.Biden could make sure that Gov.Palin answers Questions fully in context, which would show Her true views & opinions!

Thanks.

[All in All]

Part 2: #1 of this multi-part post is further up/above part 1, sorry about that.
_______________________________________________

2. During the upcoming debate Sen.Biden could & should answer the Questions asked of Him to the fullest of His abilities, however at the same-time Sen.Biden could direct the Questions asked of Him towards Gov.Palin by adding "I would like to know what Gov.Palin thinks about this" at the end of each of His own answers when Sen.Biden believes that it would give Gov.Palin the chance to speak more on a issue or topic that would help to enlighten all People of Gov.Palin's views......

[lwseanor]

This is debate is already pointless. The moderator is writing a book about Obama? I can hear the spin now. Why even bother?

[Dynamohum]

Brokaw has written books favorable to the Republicans. He is for McCain. He is a debate moderator for one of the debates. So what is your point? If you are talking about spin, that is a part of any political campaign, especially by the pundits. your point is a MOOT POINT.

[jimgilliamv2]

There are so many sound bits of Sarah looking stupid that she has to convince people she is capable of being President; that has nothing to do with Biden. Thus, winning and losing means nothing for this debate, imo.

[white mende man]

Yeh, yeh Sara Palin has won the debate just as John McCain won his... have the McCain put it out on their web site yet? you know they are into seeing into the future and all that stuff...

[JJeff88]

I smell a trap.

According to the logic of the above article, the way to expose Palin is to ask her for specifics to back up her general and often vague responses to the questions.

All the McCain people have to do in preparation is to have her memorize a list of 5 or 6 specifics to a few questions likely to be asked. Biden or Ifill will ask her to "clarify" a statement and she'll glibly rattle off the items on her list.

Trap closed.

The quandary for Biden is - "Should he avoid the trap altogether? Or would he be foolish not to work to Palin's weakness (of being too vague)."

My suggestion for Joe Biden- Be Biden.

His position should be: "Here I am. Here's Gov. Biden, We are who we are. It's up to you, the voter, to figure out which of us you feel would be the better Vice President for our respective Presidents."