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Paul Abrams

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What Romney's Hiding: 'It's the Amnesty, Stupid'

Posted: 09/23/2012 8:40 pm

Why does the press feign puzzlement about what Romney is hiding by not revealing his 2009 tax returns?

He has already revealed the extent of his foreign bank accounts, the approximate amount of his holdings and two years of taxes that are less than the middle class pays. Even if he had paid zero in some years, that is already baked into the political cake.

His disclosure of his 2010 account omitted information about his Swiss bank account at the Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS). Why is the press not asking for this form? UBS was fined $760 million for putting Americans into abusive tax shelters and forced to reveal more than 4000 Americans who banked with them under numbered accounts.

The 4000+ Americans who were exposed by UBS were offered amnesty from criminal prosecution for tax evasion if they closed their Swiss Account, recalculated and paid all back taxes and paid a 25 percent penalty on the largest amount.

Romney closed his UBS account in the time required. He did not close his other foreign accounts.

With strong circumstantial evidence (see below), should not the press be peppering Romney with questions about amnesty, and, if he says no, ask him for any alternative explanation why he closed the UBS account, why he did it at that time, and whether he would allow the IRS Commissioner to verify, or not, that Romney is telling the truth?

I first wrote about amnesty on July 12, then again on July 15, and then Slate took it up on July 17. As more evidence has piled up, I have added articles here and here and here and here and here.

But, so far as I can tell, with the exception of an occasional mention by Lawrence O'Donnell himself on his program, The Last Word, there are no voices with substantially more bandwidth than mine that are asking the obvious amnesty question, even as it has become obvious-er and obvious-er.

One can understand why the Obama campaign and White House has not raised amnesty. It would be turned against them because, despite the logic that leads inexorably to the conclusion that Romney likely received amnesty, the right-wing would attack the White House for obtaining confidential IRS information, much like the George HW Bush did from State Department records about candidate Bill Clinton in 1992. The same may be true of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV).

To review, here is the circumstantial evidence:
i) Romney closed ONLY his Swiss UBS Account, not Caymans or Bermuda or Luxembourg. Hence, he cannot claim "bad optics for a campaign" as the alternative explanation;
ii) Romney closed the UBS account during the time required to receive amnesty;
iii) Romney omitted from his public disclosure of his 2010 returns the specific information about the UBS account;
iv) Romney took six extra months to prepare his 2011 returns, disclosing them in the countdown to the election, whereas he could have disclosed 2009 immediately with 2010, getting all that bad news out at once, during the primary, so that it would be ancient history by now. That is strong evidence that 2009, that would have shown the amnesty with flashing lights, was too toxic.

The press should be pressing for answers to each of these questions, as well as the over-arching question of amnesty. Otherwise, there is a real chance that a man who committed a federal crime and received amnesty could be occupying the nation's highest office.

If this were a court of law, the evidence above uncontradicted by alternative, plausible explanations, would be enough to conclude (more probably than not, or even beyond a reasonable doubt) that Romney received amnesty.

There is also some "softer" evidence. Why do the Romneys keep insisting that their finances were all handled by a blind trust? If they have done nothing wrong, why even mention it?

The trustee, moreover, is their personal attorney. Does it not strain credulity that they really operated blindly? Why bother to make those assertions when no one is accusing the Romneys of using any position he had to feather his nest, the reason to have a blind trust in the first place? It seems more of a set-up disclaimer about having anything to do with the account for which he received amnesty -- "the trustee did it".

Along with the Romneys' 2011 disclosure, their so-called blind trustee, Brad Malt, issued a cover letter that itself raises some questions. As Pullitzer Prize winner David Cay Johnston has pointed out, Malt states that the Romneys "owed" taxes in each year, and then indicates that, for the 20 year period, the Romneys paid 100 percent of what was owed.

That seems to be a strange way of conveying the Romneys' taxes. Why did Malt have to say "owed" on an annual basis, but reverted to "paid" in the aggregate? That is, why did he not simply write that the Romneys "paid" taxes in each year? Perhaps this is too nitpicking, but it seems to convey that the Romneys owed the taxes, and they paid them, but not necessarily when they were owed. That would be consistent with a situation in which they engaged in abusive tax shelters in Switzerland, then were outed, and did what was required to receive amnesty -- revised their tax returns, and paid them along with a 25 percent penalty all at once.

One should not over-read Malt's statement. After all, he is an attorney and an attorney's job is to present their client in the best possible light while being careful (so as not to be disbarred) from conveying a lie. If this were the only basis for wondering about whether Romney received amnesty, it would not be strong.

But, this interpretation of the soft evidence is consistent with the strong circumstantial evidence that this is all related to the Romneys' amnesty.

There may be alternative explanations for each of these observations. "Occam's Razor" is a principle of logic that teaches us to choose as the most likely explanation that which requires the fewest assumptions.

Romney's "amnesty" is the single assumption that satisfies Occam's Razor regarding Romney's aversion to releasing his 2009 and earlier tax documents.

(For those who wish to ask the Romney campaign directly, you can write to returns@mittromney.com. I did. I urge you to write so that they can see how many people want to know, but I would not hold your breath for a reply.)

 

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05:46 PM on 10/22/2012
If Romney DID NOT take amnesty then my guess is he would be declaring it loud and clear to all. So far he is keeping those tax returns out of reach.

they are under lock and key
http://politicalhumor.about.com/library/bl-mitt-romney-cartoons.htm?PS=21%3A31&x=361&y=326
05:21 PM on 10/02/2012
Hey, is Trump in this amnesty group, too?
08:35 PM on 09/27/2012
Paul,
Thank you for your tenacity in exposing Romney's probable tax amnesty. Keep fighting the good fight. I think you will be rewarded in October.
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Rogueplanet
We are united in our humanity.
08:13 PM on 09/27/2012
Time to let this one go, folks. It's starting to have a witch-hunt feel to it. Kenneth Starr, anyone?
11:02 PM on 09/27/2012
No witch hunt. We're just asking a simple, fair question that Romney refuses to answer.
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citizenEP
Earthling
02:58 PM on 10/03/2012
Hardly. I know it creates a terrible cognitive dissonance for you to be confronted by such an inconvenient reality. I suggest you just turn off the news and watch a bunch of Netflix movies until Nov. 7th. It'll be better for you emotionally.
05:37 PM on 09/26/2012
A great question to spring in the first debate...

If I were Romney, I'd WANT it to come out now rather than live in close-up during the most-watched Presidential race event of the campaign.
01:58 PM on 09/27/2012
Given the currrent big media controlling the debates I highly doubt the question specific to Amnesty program will Pop up. They will simply ask when will you supply your complete returns without getting to the meat of the question ?

It's frustrating when the public's voice can not be communicated in big media. You would think that PBS would at least entertain the question but we'll see.
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Jayne Lyn Stahl
02:47 PM on 09/26/2012
Good questions all, and ones I've been asking myself.

The $60 million question is, if Romney were to have taken advantage of the tax amnesty program, would that disqualify him as president; AND why aren't Democrats jumping on this issue, and raising the question of the legitimacy of a commander-in-chief who will send us into more battlefields when he's depending on tax loopholes to avoid paying for them?
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littlebrowngirl
Brevity is the soul of wit - Shakespeare
11:44 PM on 09/25/2012
Tax amnesty and we all know it.
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Luanne Taylor
be an OTHER
06:41 PM on 09/25/2012
nicely put and yes, it is pretty obvious...I think he revised his 2008 to take the 45 million he spent on his own campaign as a loss resulting in a huge refund, which might have offset any penalty for this amnesty.......he is the KING of revision working the system.....
I do NOT understand why the country is so willing to give this man an out....recently I refreshed my memory on Spiro Agnew, a much harsher punishment and fine resulting in a resignation of the VP! yet America is okay even entertaining the thought of electing this guy?? so thanks for the email address you provided, returns@mittromney.com, I did send a note because he does NEED to understand that we CARE.
04:56 PM on 09/26/2012
I posed the tax amnesty question to returns@mittromney.com on Sunday night and have as yet received no answer. No surprise there. It really doesn't take much effort for them to respond with two letters: N O, if "No" was the true answer.
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Luanne Taylor
be an OTHER
05:29 PM on 09/26/2012
good for you! I did NOT ask a question, simply let them know the tax returns DO matter...think it's a great idea to bombard them!
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tonybillbob
I'm not a scientist, man. I'm a corporate shill.
04:14 PM on 09/25/2012
Nice writing Paul Abrams, very good reasoning and deducing.

"That would be consistent with a situation in which they engaged in abusive tax shelters in Switzerland, then were outed, and did what was required to receive amnesty -- revised their tax returns, and paid them along with a 25 percent penalty all at once."

It could also explain some of what PwC said about Romney's taxes. X% amount was paid, as owed years earlier, only after being forced to do so to comply with the amnesty agreements.

Please write about the ramifications for PwC in their involvement of moving that misleading portrayal down the road.
02:53 PM on 09/25/2012
You are suggesting that the press actually do their job and ask Romney questions? Therein lies the problem.
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02:14 PM on 09/25/2012
Maybe there were a few high profile dems in that rat pack too? Too close for comfort.
01:49 PM on 09/25/2012
Paul:

The reason the press has not brought this up is simple.

#1

The 4000 echelon do not want to make this a prescedent as the disclosure that Romney part toook in the program may give way to others eventually having to do this as well. As such the 4000 echelon's have made it clear to the Media bosses not to go down this path of questioning.


#2

The revelation of this as a fact becomes Game Set and Match, Partinking in an amnesty program to avoid federal prosecution is and end game. and there will be no more money flooding into the media airwaves.
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PrezCan
02:30 AM on 09/25/2012
Maybe there's a plan to bring this to light at some point... we'll see ;)
02:22 AM on 09/25/2012
Obama is failing as a leader and all you can do is come up with a paranoid set of conspiratory nonesense about Romney. Where was all this in depth scrutiny when Obama was running in 2008?
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abbyrose86
Business exists to benefit MANKIND, MANKIND does N
05:45 AM on 09/25/2012
You are joking, right?
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FredBrighton
up the establishment!
05:48 AM on 09/25/2012
Well, for one thing Obama is not a multimillionaire and has no Swiss bank accounts. Mr. Romney seems to have tucked away a pile of money in offshore accounts. If he wants the White House he should be willing to fess up.
3beanCrispy
not arguing, just explaining why you're wrong
01:40 PM on 09/25/2012
Obama is a multimillionaire from his book royalties, but most of his money is tied up in US bonds and such, not foreign bank accounts. It's in his best interest that the US economy does well ( unlike his opponent ).
07:59 PM on 09/25/2012
Fred,  where was the outrage at John Kerry who is equally rich and has many similar investments and tax returns. 
09:35 PM on 09/24/2012
I think that the reason people are not focusing on this is that most people do not understand that anyone who uses the amnesty program has to admit that he under reported his income. He would be admitting that he had hidden all that money from the IRS.