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Paul Abrams

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With a Small Tweak, Obama Can Win the "Belt-Tightening" Argument

Posted: 07/28/2012 5:49 pm

Economic messaging profoundly impacts economic policy. Although right-wing, Ayn Rand- Bush-Romney-Ryan policies have failed miserably, they continue to win the messaging, providing psychological succor as we hurtle headlong into economic decline.

One particularly effective bromide has been that "tax cuts pay for themselves." Although Ronald Reagan said that, he did not seem really to believe it, as he enacted many tax hikes during his tenure to stem the growing deficits his cuts produced. (And, no, the deficits were not due to Democrat spending, as Reagan's budget proposals and the actual total budgets passed differed in aggregate by less than one percent).


During the Great Recession, the right-wing has seized upon the deficits -- caused largely by the recession itself, the unfunded wars they lied us into, an unfunded Medicare benefit and that "tax cuts pay for themselves" nonsense that Bush adopted -- to press for radical cuts to national investments and spending.


The current economic nostrum has been, "

the Bush Recession has forced everyone to tighten their belts. When the American people have to tighten their belts, government has to tighten its belt too."

That this, too, is nonsense is best highlighted by right-wing claims that cutting defense spending as required by the law they themselves passed will cost one to two million jobs. Really? I thought they have instructed us that government spending causes us to lose jobs.

Nonetheless, the simplicity and superficial logic of the "belt-tightening" analogy has been quite powerful psychologically, an impenetrable barrier to discussion of pragmatic economic policies.

With a small tweak, however, the president can seize the analogy and use it to breach that barrier to pragmatism. It would now read like this:

"The Bush recession has forced the American people to tighten their belts. But, if everyone tightens our belts at the same time, it cuts off blood supply to the legs. So, when people are tightening their belts, government loosens its belt to supply oxygen and nutrients to the legs that keep our economy moving, by investing in such items as roads and bridges. Then, when the American people are able to loosen their belts, government tightens its belt."

[Of course, the right-wing will say, "but government never tightens its belt." To that, just say that that is certainly true of Republicans, but not Democrats and point to President Clinton's surpluses. They won't keep that one up for very long.]

Winning the messaging war is an important achievement. Not only does it provide the clear choice that resonates with peoples' psyches for the election, but it also serves as psychological underpinning for adopting sound economic policies.

That would be the best prescription of all.

 

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Economic messaging profoundly impacts economic policy. Although right-wing, Ayn Rand- Bush-Romney-Ryan policies have failed miserably, they continue to win the messaging, providing psychological succ...
Economic messaging profoundly impacts economic policy. Although right-wing, Ayn Rand- Bush-Romney-Ryan policies have failed miserably, they continue to win the messaging, providing psychological succ...
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Thanks4Watching
Daily dose of cynicism
07:00 AM on 07/31/2012
These are the same people who want to spend billions on new tax cuts for the rich, the prison industrial complex, subsidies for Big Oil, the war on drugs, a new war on Iran, and the militarization of police. Depending on who you ask, they also want to censor the Internet and the media, as well, and that won't be cheap either.

By "belt tightening" and "government spending," they never mean any of the major price tags. They always mean, and have always meant, "shafting the poor and the middle class."
SeriesSeven
Progressivism is a disease.
04:42 PM on 07/30/2012
Please point to a period in the last 75 years that the government has ever "tightened its belt", regardless of whether the citizenry has or not. Actual goverment expenditures have never gone down through any president's tenure. Not once. So your twist on the tightening the belt metaphor is simply encouragement for Obama to lie.
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Paul Abrams
05:30 PM on 07/30/2012
When you have a growing country, in population, in percentage of elderly, in GDP, the expenses never "go down", but they are decreased as a percentage of the total. Today, as a percentage of GDP, we have the lowest federal spending in 50 years. In fact, no growing company reduces its actual expenses, but it may reduce expenses as a percentage of revenues.
Only people like Ron Paul would say that an expenditure level from 1965 was a relevant number in absolute terms.
So, the belt-tightening is relative. If you want to employ the analogy, a teenager may tighten his belt to 28, but a 50 year-old may tighten it to 36, but in both cases they may have lost weight and are engaged in belt-tightening.
SeriesSeven
Progressivism is a disease.
12:07 PM on 07/31/2012
"we have the lowest federal spending in 50 years."

UTTER NONSENSE. Seriously, where do you come up with these obvious and demonstrable lies? Have you gotten so accustomed to just pulling things out of your ..... that you actually believe them?

http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Historicals

See that part where this year's federal spending as a percentage of GDP is 24.1%. In the evil GWB administration, it was less for every year except one. In fact, every single administration over the last 50 had a lower spending as a % of GDP than currently. But I suppose making your own reality is the only way to justify your completely ridiculous policy arguments.
the pariah
Author of "The Lean Pocket Diet"
12:38 PM on 07/30/2012
Simpson-Bowles.
HUFFPOST PUNDIT
realitytrumpsbull
Two 'alves of coconut!
01:13 AM on 07/30/2012
Psychoblogicals? There's lots of politiblogicals out there, blogging this way and that, and trying to convince us that everything's JUST fine, and you needn't worry about the strange sounds coming from behind the green curtain over there, just ignore the little guy in the dark suit, everthing will be OK, and then you read about entire banks being basically shut down due to interesting trading practices, CEO's and executives being marched off in handcuffs, government officials having to do a lot of clever public tap-dancing at the podium trying to clarify their points related to why we're going another trillion in debt, this year, and all the while, this figurative drool-stream seems to be making eerie liquid sounds off in the darkness there somewhere, where some billionaire's consortium is preparing to own the country even MORE. Sixteen and a half TRILLION in the red, with over two trillion in debt held against our names abroad. Eventually, it'll be three, or four, or more. And your landlord will be in Zanzibar and your rent will cost 3x what it does now, and no, they won't come and fix the roof. And, it'll be illegal to sleep in the street. All just speculation, of course, but not too much of a stretch of the imagination...
11:20 PM on 07/29/2012
Politicians lie - so listening to what a politician says and believing that 100% is going to make you very disappointed in the performance of your candidate.

View their history, view their voting record, see what legislation they support and oppose.

If we had judged BO on his record last election, Hillary would have been the Dem candidate.
02:03 PM on 07/29/2012
Paul lost credibility with me before I even finished the first paragraph because of his absurd (and conspicuously unsubstantiated) statement that "Ayn Rand -Bush-Romney-Ryan policies have failed miserably." Paul, can you name ONE SPECIFIC economic policy that all those people agree on (or would agree on, if Ayn Rand were still alive)?
I invite Paul Abrams and anyone who actually buys this snake oil he's selling to read the analysis under myth No. 2 in this post: http://right-winggenius.blogspot.com/2011/08/five-left-wing-myths-about-economy.html. For further study, see how "belt-tightening" austerity measures, combined with tax cuts, have worked across the Atlantic: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQu7V9pMK48 and http://washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/op-eds/2012/05/two-kinds-austerity/596441. If you're still not convinced, then at least try and answer my initial question.
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Paul Abrams
06:50 PM on 07/29/2012
They share a belief that tax cuts for the wealthy paid for by reducing benefits for the least fortunate and raising taxes on the middle class is good policy.
SeriesSeven
Progressivism is a disease.
04:46 PM on 07/30/2012
Please point to a single instance where we have ever reduced benefits for anyone or raised taxes on the middle class. And by reducing, I mean by magnitude not rate of growth. Reducing the rate of growth of a program is not a cut.

Please provide a single instance of Paul Ryan ever claiming that raising taxes on the middle class was part of his advocated policy.
10:12 PM on 07/30/2012
Please provide an example of each of the aforementioned individuals (It's not clear which "Bush" or which "Romney" you're referring to; I infer from your later comment that by "Ryan" you mean Paul Ryan.) on record supporting "tax cuts for the wealthy paid for by reducing benefits for the least fortunate and raising taxes on the middle class". Also, there is apparently some problem with one of the links I included in support of my original comment. Please click on the following: http://right-winggenius.blogspot.com/2011/08/five-left-wing-myths-about-economy.html
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
LeftRight
TANSTAAFL
08:20 AM on 07/30/2012
They share a belief that tax cuts for the wealthy is good for the country.
10:09 PM on 07/30/2012
(1) We don't tax WEALTH in this country; we tax INCOME. While it's true that cutting INCOME taxes may benefit the wealthy, there's really no such thing as "" at the federal level.
(2) Apparently there is some problem with one of the links I included in support of my original comment. Please click on the following: I invite Paul Abrams and anyone who actually buys this snake oil he's selling to read the analysis under myth No. 2 in this post: http://right-winggenius.blogspot.com/2011/08/five-left-wing-myths-about-economy.html
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Allene Stucki
12:20 PM on 07/29/2012
All "jobs" are not created equal. Some jobs need to be eliminated, specifically those that are not contributing to the welfare of society, and a prime example of those would be defense jobs that go beyond the bare minimum required to keep us a free nation. Our defense expenditures currently go far beyond the degree of danger posed to our existence by foreign enemies.
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Paul Abrams
03:22 PM on 07/29/2012
I am not arguing to keep defense spending high to preserve defense jobs. I am merely pointing to Republican hypocrisy--hardly a new phenomenon--that somehow defense spending creates jobs, but road-building does not.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
LeftRight
TANSTAAFL
08:21 AM on 07/30/2012
That's somewhat true. By the same token, many government jobs (though certainly not all!!) are actually quite beneficial to the welfare of society both through what the job holder does in their job, and through what they are able to do with their paychecks.
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Paul Abrams
05:36 PM on 07/30/2012
Of course. We have ALWAYS had a mixed economy between government, private/public, and purely public. Why this has become such a major point of contention is due only to the immense amount of money the radical right has to throw at creating a false impression.
11:42 AM on 07/29/2012
this is a pretty simple to grasp. when businesses are cutting back and consumers are spending less and less it's up to a third party (govt) to step in and end the vicious cycle of contraction. duh. it accomplishes this through job creation with
infrastructure investments and
policies which put more money in the
hands of people who spend hand to
mouth, and, hopefully, loosening the reigns (imposed by state regulations) on small business entrepreneurs.
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Paul Abrams
12:10 PM on 07/29/2012
one would have thought it should be simple...but the "govt has to tighten its belts because the Bush Recession forced the american people to do so" has won the messaging argument.

but, the Republicans are against it.
11:41 AM on 07/29/2012
Here's a simpler one. If tax cuts always pay for themselves, then why have taxes at all?
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Paul Abrams
12:10 PM on 07/29/2012
exactly!
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Allene Stucki
12:23 PM on 07/29/2012
That's kinda like if welfare generates a profit thru the "multiplier effect", why not spend the entire national budget on welfare?
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Paul Abrams
03:53 PM on 07/29/2012
It really depends on your meaning of the word "welfare". If you include all government spending and investment as "welfare", then you are correct. Building a dam is "welfare" in the sense that it is an investment in a public good. Investing in basic research is "welfare" to the researchers...but, it provides a lasting benefit to society. Same with roads, bridges, airports, education, and so forth. Providing the elderly security in health and basic living costs via medicare and social security enables younger people to invest in their own futures. Head-start enables the working-poor to go to work, and their children to enter school prepared.
So, we are doing that--we are spending the entire federal budget on "welfare" (with the possible exception of interest on the national debt).
Thanks for the insight.
05:20 PM on 07/29/2012
Most of it is spent on welfare; the welfare of the rich.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
MassWG
09:58 AM on 07/29/2012
"President Clinton's surpluses"

President Clinton's surpluses largely consist of a transfer of debt held by the public to intragovernmental debt. Overall public debt continued to INCREASE, not decrease... by about a trillion over his two terms.

The increase in tax revenues that led to paying down publicly held debt was due to the stock market bubble. That dangerous and unsustainable growth resulted from the financial-sector free-for-all that both Clinton and the Republicans pursued.

The bottom line is that even during a decade of great prosperity fueled by unsustainable and unnaturally rapid growth, overall public debt increased by some 20%... so yes, history shows that our "government never tightens its belt" during good times.
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Paul Abrams
01:29 PM on 07/29/2012
The key metric for debt (personal, corporate or national) is the percentage the total debt represents of your revenues, because it is that that determines the ability to pay it off. In national terms it is the "Debt-to-GDP" ratio.
Here are the facts: Starting with the end of World War II, EVERY President, Republican and Democratic, reduced the "Debt-to-GDP" ratio (or, in the case of Gerald Ford, it didn't change) until President Reagan. Under Reagan, and again under George HW Bush, the "Debt-to-GDP" ratio increased. Then, President Clinton reversed it, and the "Debt-to-GDP" ratio declined. Under "W" the "Debt-to-GDP" ratio skyrocketed (he was not to be outdone by his dad), and that has continued under President Obama, although it will depend on whether he gets a second term or not to judge.
SeriesSeven
Progressivism is a disease.
04:54 PM on 07/30/2012
The only problem here is that GDP is not government revenue. Your statement presumes that every dollar of economic activity in this country has first claim by the federal government. It's absolute folly to claim that GDP in any way represents an ability to pay, as you would have to presume that the government could establish a universal 100% tax rate on all economic activity and that the total gross activity would not reduce as a result.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
LeftRight
TANSTAAFL
08:24 AM on 07/30/2012
Yes, but it was on the way to actually having a surplus. Had the Clinton government policies and economy continued for another year we would have had no deficit. And had it continued throughout the Bush terms and into the present we would currently be under a Trillion Dollars in debt....
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Paul Abrams
10:42 AM on 07/31/2012
Alan Greenspan was worried about our paying off our debt. Seems rather quaint now. The Republicans, who had adopted a beggar-thy-country approach under Reagan ("we don't have the money to do X") became apoplectic at the prospect of surpluses, worried that we as a country would decide to do something together such as provide everyone healthcare, and demanded the money be squandered on tax cuts for the wealthy.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
frank1946
Tell the Truth
06:02 AM on 07/29/2012
Paul, you're missing the Problem.

Nobody is making private Capital Investments in the USA, Job Growth is flat to negative.

No confidence in America at this time. Public Works does very little except get to next election.

Time to stop taxing Capital in America, nobody else does it, except USA.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Dave F
Former Republican. Liberal = liberty.
09:33 AM on 07/29/2012
Wrong diagnosis, which leads to the wrong prescription. Try again.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
carhac66
10:04 AM on 07/29/2012
Capital Gains taxes in europe -- take a look

http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Europe/capital-gains-tax
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Alux
Pull the Wool Over Your Own Eyes!
03:30 PM on 07/29/2012
I like all those countries that have a capital gains rate of 0.0% - in Europe no less!
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
lithium451
03:44 AM on 07/29/2012
It's an easier argument than that - the demand recession will continue until we stop taking from the many to give to the few.
10:45 AM on 07/29/2012
Austerity-driven recession is not the answer. Man's continued inhumanity to his fellow man pits all America in a high-speed race to the end of us. Kindness and empathy, along with reinvestment in our infrastructure, would go a long way in restoring America's faith in the social compact set forth in the Constitution.

Who in Washington DC is brave enough to side with the majority of the American people? Who understands that the longer this intolerable situation drags on, that the hopes and dreams of all Americans are being crushed by the uncertainty of our leaders and their unwillingness to act fairly and decisively?

Our government is supposed to be "for the People," yet it appears to be "for the Paymasters" on Wall Street, and in the multinational corporations. This is intolerable! When will "We the People" stand up?
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
dennidus1680
02:40 PM on 07/29/2012
good question.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
John Genryu
Zen Buddhist priest/IT Consultant
06:21 AM on 07/30/2012
Nicely put The Pale Lady.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
laurieanichols
je pense donc, je suis
03:18 AM on 07/29/2012
Paul you are absolutely right that economic messaging is essential to getting good economic policy but I don't understand how the myth that the republicans are the responsible frugal political party has endured. We have thirty years of historical data to show that republicans are in effect the party of big spending and I would argue taxing as well. When you look at the democrats record, Clinton gave a surplus, Wall Street has always performed better under democrats leadership through democrats economic growth policies. The republicans have focused all their spending on only certain groups, the military, big banks, big oil and big agriculture, these spending sprees are usually in the form of subsidies, revenues that are lost to us the American people. I believe that this congress dominated by the republican agenda has been a disastrous economic manager of our money. Because in reality it isn't the governments money, it is our money that we entrust to the politicians to spend and save wisely. Thus far the republicans have been performing poorly and I recommend that they be let go.
MrEcon101
Klaatu barada nikto
01:44 AM on 07/29/2012
Classic Dem. How can he win the argument. Not how can his policy transcend.

Maybe you could do like he did in the "you did not build that" ad and just claim you are doing a great job at limiting deficit spending.

Who knows? If you repeat this absurdity enough, people (especially du mb Dems) may believe you!
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Paul Abrams
02:28 AM on 07/29/2012
As indicated in the article, the policy is correct. The Romney Road to Ruin is sold with great marketing. Some better marketing on the sound economic policy, with which every economist--and Romney himself if you read the links--actually agrees might enable us to avoid that road.
03:44 AM on 07/29/2012
American Borat " I spent a great day in the backside on Downing street "
MrEcon101
Klaatu barada nikto
09:16 AM on 07/29/2012
Bringing out your heavy intellectual artillery!? Yup, that logic should have the car out of the ditch any day now!
01:05 AM on 07/29/2012
This is nonsense. "If everyone tightens our belts at the same time iit cuts off blood supply to the legs". What? Forget that that makes no sense. Please point to the revenue drops associated with tax cuts. In fact revenue typically increases. These deficits are all about spending. I would also ask which specific "W" policies caused our economic recession? If banks hadn't known the Government would buy the subprime loans they were making (required by law) we would not be in this mess. I have issues with Republican spending as well. But c'mon they look like misers compared to the democrats.
RealistBC
Micro-bios must pass muster.
05:34 AM on 07/29/2012
Another FOXhound heard from.
RealistBC
Micro-bios must pass muster.
05:37 AM on 07/29/2012
Another FOXhound bays on cue.
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Me atlast
Live, Love, Paint
11:41 AM on 07/29/2012
Yeah, but I think he's running a deer.