Without FLA and MI, the Magic Delegate Number Becomes 1832

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Florida and Michigan account for a total of 338 elected delegates and another 50 superdelegates. If they are not seated, the total number of delegates at the convention shrinks to 3662, so that it would take 1832 delegates to win the nomination.

According to RealClearPolitics, Obama has a total of 1629 delegates, 203 shy of a majority under the current scenario. Hillary has 1499, 333 away from a majority. There are 566 delegates at stake in the remaining contests. Assuming no additional superdelegate endorsements, Obama needs to win 36% of the remaining delegates, a certainty.

That is, Obama can sew it up without an additional superdelegate.

Of these, 480 delegates are at stake between now and May 20. Obama needs to win 42% of those to win the nomination if FLA and MI remain unseated. That is, Obama is very likely to lock it up on May 20th without an additional superdelegate.

The first 349 will be chosen by May 6th, requiring 58% to add the 203. It is unlikely he will win 58%, and thus this is where superdelegates would help: if those 50 superdelegates who were prepared to declare after Texas did so, Obama would only need 43% of the first 349. That is, with those 50 superdelegates, Obama could wrap it up on May 6th. Knowing he will wrap it up 2 weeks later without an additional superdelegate, why wait?

No one maintaining a claim to electoral sanity would suggest that FLA and MI not be seated. But, the sequence may help map strategy.

If Obama gets 50% of the first 349 (PA, IN, NC and Samoa), he will be 29 votes shy of the 1832 majority on May 7th. At 45%, he would need 46. One might think that that situation would prompt sufficient additional superdelegates to come out of the woodwork to enable Obama to wrap it up on May 6th. Even Bill Clinton will find it difficult to conjure a situation in which Barack does not gain another 29 to 46 elected delegates of the 207 still to be chosen.

Indeed, once 30-47 additional superdelegates declared for Obama, those as-yet undeclared might line up behind him, providing sufficient certainty to settle the MI and FLA seating without upsetting the applecart, such as dividing MI equally and giving FLA ½-vote each.

Everyone would be seated. The nomination would be decided.*

We could get there on May 7th.

(*No one should call for Hillary Clinton to drop out; that is different from the electoral process triggering superdelegate action that accelerates the process arriving at a conclusion, and FLA and MI are two good reasons to get to that conclusion rapidly).

Comments

[Vote4Prosperity]

We count! and this can not happen again! we have to have a re-vote!!!

We lost the presidency the last time..We can not let this happen!!!

[Vote4Prosperity]

Michigan and Florida must re-vote..Our Votes must count or we are all going to vote Republican!!!
I know many people that feel this way!!!
Vote Republican if Michigan and Florida does not re-vote. It is unfair-neither of the democratic candidates have what they need to win!!!
Michigan and Florida must have a revote! Our votes must count!

[TheNumantine]

With FL and MI the total delegates would be 4415 (2208 to nominate).

And American Samoa already voted. You must mean Guam.

All you need to know (and more than you will ever want to) about delegates and delegates rules can be viewed at greenpapers.com

[MadeinAmericaProud]

reading these 18 comments last one logged in 6.:23am today while troop are dieing miles away from home never ever trained Iraq's 3000 years history to all the family fights they have had.

Yet,some American are saying our troops are bring these people freedom. some Americans are saying they should stand up for themselves for freedom and well being.

Two points.

1, We american do not fully understand our various religious group here in these United States. Just look at these blogs, The haters of pastors wright and hagee
2. States rights vs electoral party policy rules.

You all want 1 person( Obama ) to have the power to override the states powers and also have the power to override the DNC rules. Hilliary is feeding dumb-american a lot of bull on the same level as the Bosnia story.
I do not see, I repeat I do not see the people in these states with torches in hand to their elected official for breaking their party rules.
For years the West coast when I lived their(17 years) never had any, I repeat any voice on the elections that Florida had. I now live on this side. of the country. I don't see these people mad at their state official they pissed at one man.

[northeast73]

No, sir.

The 2025 number was adjusted for FL and MI. It is HIGHER when you include them.

Dumb.

[GOP4MoreTears]

In the 2004 Democratic Presidential primary the threshold number was 2162 delegates, this year it is 2024 that is 138 delegates less. But the numbers still don't jive exactly. Can some provide some better information, please?

[OverIt]

The numbers change each time based on voter turnout from the last major election and as the superdelegate count also changes based on the number of DNC officials and Democratic elected officials at the time.

[OverIt]

Wouldn't a quick call to the DNC have spared Mr. Abrams this embarrassing gaffe?

[Dap]

Dear Mr. Abrams,

I thouth that was the case also, but after *TRYING* to make sense of the Democratic primary rules and delegates for each State and the way delegates are chosen among the indivigual States, I'm no longer sure that's true??? I couldn't pull together enough concrete information to state that fact with certanity. The 4046 total delegate count seems to have already removed the Florida and Michigan delegate of 338??? But it so friggin hard to know exactly.

I must say this though, if that is *In Fact* the case, we had better get to the bottem of it forthwith. A law suit may be in in order to properly protect the Democratic primary voters rights to a fair election???

Anyway Thank you for the excellent question. It will take a better mind with the rules and numbers than mine to get to the bottem of it, but count me in if we need to protect our rights in court. Agape.

[newslamp]

Without Florida and Michigan fully counted--that means every vote, every delegate--the whole thing becomes a sham election. It seems to me that any candidate who truly believes in democracy would demand that every vote be counted, whether he or she wins or not. But these are politicians we're talking about. As it stands, Obama is manipulating the system for his benefit, like one of the greedy fat cats he criticizes employing tax code loopholes to further enrich himself instead of paying his fair share. When it becomes clear to Obama and his handlers that Hillary has no chance, he will magnanimously allow Florida and Michigan to be counted. And if the shoe were on the other foot, Hillary would handle it exactly the same way.

If Obama demanded that Florida and Michigan be counted immediately, he would become a hero, a real leader. Voters would flock to him, and he would win decisively, dramatically improving his chances in November, but being the politician he is, he won't do that.

[silverball]

newslamp....did you complain about this BEFORE the primaries began??? or just after we all knew that she wasn't going to be coronated on super tues???....yeah, i didn't think so....the clintons have established a new team ...the special team...used to move the goal posts whenever necessary....forget the rules we ALL knew about, we just need to adjust them so we win...pathetic...it does nothing but hurt her and make her look petty and willing to say and do ANYTHING to win....move along...nothing new here....

[northeast73]

You know it is people like YOU that will make me NOT VOTE if Oblahma gets it.

No, they did not worry about FL and MI because SOMEONE PROBABLY WOULD HAVE HIT THE MAGIC NUMBER WITHOUT THEM.

Now, those two states DECIDE TEH WINNER.

And since they favor Hillary, you Obamafreaks dont want them voting.

I WILL VOTE FOR MCCAIN IF OBAMA GETS THIS CORONATION ,FOR SURE.

[kuulray]

Mr. Abrams, I think you're guilty of a little fuzzy math. Your commenters know more about the numbers than you do.

[Dap]

This may *NOT* be the case, we all still don't know for sure yet. Someone has to bring more information to our table. Can you provide any concrete numbers and how they came about?

[Rarignac]

I believe your premiss is wrong and that neither Florida nor Michigan delegates were included when establishing the 2024 delegate threshold. Should they be counted, the number of delegates required would jump.

[Dap]

From my research, which is limited, you seem to be correct, but it was pretty much guess work of the 2004 delegate numbers.

How do you know for sure the 2024 number is correct? And that the Florida and Michigan delegates were already remove, I curious to know? Links??? Please.

[boonagain]

The 2025 already reflects no FL and MI.

[LeftRight]

Dude, the 2025 number given ALL this election cycle had already accounted for Florida and Michigan not counting. Therefore, the magic number is STILL 2025!

[jeffmorgan]

Are you sure that the 2025 delegate number doesn't already have FL and MI counted out?

[skidz12]

Mr Abrams, um they already subtracted the Mi Fl delegates from the count that's why it's only 2025 you are subtracting them twice. Even though your article is pointless, you are right. Obama will be the presumptive nominee after the may 6th contests.

[CLEDUC]

I thought the total delegates was around 4048 (minus Spitzer and FLA and MI).

Because of that fact, I'm having trouble undersatnding the above.