THE BLOG
12/27/2013 04:31 pm ET | Updated Feb 26, 2014

BCS National Championship Pick: Florida State vs. Auburn

Florida State is not just the Jameis Winston show. The Seminoles actually ran the football more than they threw it en route to leading the nation in scoring. They also led the country in fewest points allowed per game, making their 41.8 point-per-game margin one of the greatest seasons in college football history. Despite facing an average spread of 24.4 points, Florida State has not even lost a game against the number since September. The Seminoles are known for their charismatic quarterback (and the headlines that have followed him), yet they have multiple NFL prospects at every level (likely including three future NFL running backs, the best receiving corps in the nation, one of the most talented and experienced offensive lines in the country, at least one future first round pick on the defensive line, at linebacker and in the secondary and a kicker who just won the Lou Groza Award). This is an incredibly talented, well-balanced, dominant, incredibly coached and focused team.

Auburn does have talent. Head coach Gus Malzahn was around as an assistant when the team won a BCS National Championship and that certainly did not hurt with recruiting. However, the mess that was the Auburn Tigers the last two seasons has left anything but balance. The Tigers rank outside the top 40 defensively against the run and are a below average FBS team against the pass (using strength-of-schedule-adjusted, per-play efficiency numbers). And though quarterback Nick Marshall can hit big plays in the passing game, Auburn runs the ball 72% of the time. Given over a month to prepare, Florida State's defense should be able to figure out ways to contain the Tigers (much like Auburn did when it took on Oregon in the aforementioned BCS National Championship three years ago).

Auburn is better than the fluky nature of the team's most high profile wins would suggest, but Florida State was never even in circumstances like that at any point in the year because the Seminoles won every game easily. That should be the case with this game as well. According to 50,000 games played by the Predictalator, Florida State wins on average 79.0 percent of the time and by an average score of 41.3-29.6. As 8.5 point favorites winning by 11.7 points, Florida State covers the spread 54.5 percent of the time, which would warrant a $22 play by a normal $50 player. The OVER (66) is also playable in this game and covers 55.6 percent of the time, enough to justify a $34 play from a normal $50 player.