Searching for Godot

The job searches are on for the next vice president of the United States. Republican presidential hopeful Sen. John McCain is holding job interviews with three candidates this weekend, while Sen. Barack Obama has set up a search process.

Both searches will share an age-old philosophy: Picking a running mate is less about winning votes than looking good. Vice presidential nominees rarely account for more than one-two percent of the national vote and rarely deliver their own states (think Lloyd Bentsen and Texas, Jack Kemp and New York, and John Edwards and North Carolina).

However, the choice of a running mate is one of the few big decisions a presidential candidate gets to make during the campaign.

A good choice can give voters a reason to take a closer look at the presidential candidate (think Walter Mondale and Geraldine Ferraro), reinforce a broad generational theme (think Bill Clinton and Al Gore), or convey a certain seriousness (think Jimmy Carter and Walter Mondale).

In turn, a bad choice can raise questions about judgment (think George H. W. Bush and Dan Quayle), doom a campaign to defeat (think George McGovern and Thomas Eagleton), or invite future scandal (think Richard Nixon and Spiro Agnew).

Obama's choice will be among the easiest in recent history. He has to pick a candidate who will give him needed credibility among low-income voters in a battleground state such as Ohio or Pennsylvania. The easiest choice of all would be to put Hillary Clinton on the ticket, but that would be a reluctant alliance that could produce extraordinary conflict on the campaign trail.

Obama would be well advised to nominate a governor instead. He can hardly run against Washington with another senator in tow. Put Pennsylvania's Ed Rendell at the top of the list. He has a strong relationship with the voters that Obama needs, would likely deliver Pennsylvania, and served in the U.S. Army. He can also swing a political hatchet, letting Obama be Obama while cutting McCain down to size.

McCain's choice is much more difficult. He will have little trouble picking someone younger, no disrespect intended. But he also needs a Franken-Veep -- a running mate who can give the ticket a boost in a battleground state such as Florida, assuage the right wing, show some strength on economic issues, appeal to independents and Reagan Democrats, and shake up the race.

It is a nearly impossible search given the Republican talent pool. Louisiana's Bobby Jindal is almost young enough to be McCain's grandchild, Florida's Bill Crist has too little experience, Condoleezza Rice has nothing to add on economic issues, and Mitt Romney is too hungry. Minnesota's Tim Pawlenty looks like the best bet, but he has not attracted much national attention over the years and is no show stopper on the campaign trail.

The two job searches will not be judged just on November 4, however. Obama and McCain must pick candidates who are both good for their campaigns and good for the job. The two goals are not necessarily related.

Thirty years ago, being good for the job did not matter. The vice presidency was little more than a waiting room for a presidential accident. Today, the vice presidency is an extraordinary, perhaps even dangerous platform for influence. Guaranteed a West Wing Office, immediate access to intelligence, a shadow White House staff, and even a vice presidential anthem ("Hail Columbia"), the vice presidency has become one of the most important jobs in the country.

Not to put too much pressure on Obama and McCain, but the next vice president will be among the most important in U.S. history. He or she must not only restore confidence in the vice presidency itself, but must help reassure the nation that Washington will faithfully execute all the laws. The federal government has never needed a vice president's leadership more -- its missions are underfunded, its hierarchy is encrusted, its employees are frustrated, and its hidden workforce of contractors has never been larger. Asked to do more with less year after year, the federal government is on the verge of doing everything with nothing.

As the vice presidential job searches continue, Obama and McCain should ask each candidate what can be done to repair government. Anyone who cannot answer the question should be checked off the list, no matter how much he or she might help win the election.

Comments

[OutsideLookingIn]

As an Outsider looking in at what passes for the political process in the USA I still find it almost beyond belief that that Vice-President - and potential President for perhaps three and a half years - should be someone not directly elected by the people.

It beggars belief that the Second in Line to the Nuclear Button and Commander-in-Chief of the most powerful military in the world should owe that power and the be beholden not to the electors - the citizens - but to an individual exercising Emperor-like powers of appointment.

In more advanced democracies than that of the US - which is most of the civilized world - and especially in those with a form of proportional representation, it is invariably the case that votes are quite deliberately exercised to create a balance of ideologies, creating a powerful counterweight to the ruling clique which is itself responsible to the electorate for the sensible exercise of that counterweight. In the US you elect a king for four years and then rail helplessly as he abuses the power that you give him.

About the only thing that hasn't changed in the last two hundred years is the US Constitution. It's a about time it caught up.

[unitron]

"But he also needs a Franken-Veep"

Al Franken for Vice-President? Brilliant!!!

But seriously, it needs to be someone who is otherwise not going to be an office holder after this fall. The Dems need to hold on to every House and Senate seat and governor's mansion they already have and fight like junkyard dogs to get more.

[JohnFObama]

Obama/Edwards V McCain/Rice

[Yohomegirl]

My beliefs stated simply: O-Hill? OH, HELL NO!

[THINKB4USPEAK]

As I "spoke" earlier on someplace else, Jimmy Carter. He's under the term limit limit. He's a statesman who was screwed by the Reagan/Bush mafia with Iran/Contra. He already talks to terrorists other than Dick Chaney...and, he's a carpenter (just what you need to counter the Muslim spin the repos are sure to bring.

[HansB]

I love Jimmy Carter too, but no. Bad for Obama who's already accused of being Hamas' favorite, bad for Carter who is at his best when he's free of political constraints.

[desthmoneses]

Hillary Clinton is the "White Hammer" she needs to be in the White house to restore white working class confidence in Washington. The white working class needs to be appeased, they've never before had any say in Washington politics and have always been a quiet minority, but no more. Now is the time they will make themselves heard, and they want more guns and more religion, no compromises.

[UNCLEJOE]

Hillary has two powerful political factions solidly behind her to gain the Democratic nomination; the staunch elderly feminists and the cross-over Republicans. In addition to these two formidable groups she has Bill Clinton, a very dangerous man with a history of carrying on vedettas with a vengeance.

Super Delegates know the powerful background of Bill Clinton and hesitate to commit to Obama as long as Hillary stays in the race.

Obama will win the nomination and will win the General Election in 2008, no matter who he picks as a VP since 82% of the nation are emphatically anti - War and the Bush ecoomy is in the toilet.

OPTIONS FOR VP's AND CONSEQUENCES:
A) Ironically, in the 2008 General Election, ma ny of the Hillary supporters will either refuse to vote for a Blackman and the cross-over Republicans will vote the Republican ticket whoever the candidate is;

B) Obama needs one man who can assure the Americans a landslide victory; Obama needs Al Gore as his VP. Despite Gore's refusal to run for the presidency, He will not be able to refuse Obama and the overwhelming majority of Democrats at the Convention in Denver to accept the VP slot.. And Obama/Gore will be the Dream Team that will fulfill all the vetted qualifications to lead America to a Renaissance of Liberte', Fraternite' et 'Equalite' .

I'll bet my libido on that ticket!

[livesimply]

He won't do it. He likes what he's doing now.

[Jazzbeau]

Been there, done that.

[offred]

Clinton would be good as head of the Department of Health and Human Resources. Jim Webb would be good as vice president (except we'd lose a Democratic seat). John Edwards would be good as attorney general; he'd be willing to take on the bad guys.

By the way, some TV news anchors have mentioned that sometimes the winner in a contest for a party's presidential nomination sometimes arranges to cover the loser's campaign debt. Obama should not consent to cover any of Clinton's campaign debt, particularly any accrued after the final primary, especially since the next three months leading up to the convention will doubtless be very expensive for Clinton. I think the latest figure I've heard for her debt is $23 million. That's $23 million better spent by the Obama camp on the general election.

[KillTheMessenger]

OMG, the Obama-Clinton monster just won't die, will it? No mater how often you stab it, electrocute it, burn it, drown it, hang it, shoot it, stampede it with a herd of gay pygmy rhinoceri, the more it comes back.

And now I think I know the reason: because most "commentators" have absolutely no clue what Obama is going to do. He has not given us any wink, not the slightest waver of his voice on who it is going to be. So everybody who thinks they HAVE TO come up with a name in a piece pulls The Clinton. It's Magic! It is wrong, but it is so obviously wrong that the actual cluelessness of the author about the actual real choices does not show.

I also think Senator Obama will surprise the majority with a pick that is non-obvious but perfectly rational.

[arkgrfx61]

I think you might be right.
He seems to be an excellent judge of character for the most part, and has surrounded himself w/ excellent support/advisers.
All this speculation is just that...and we won't know who it is until he announces...so we should probably just stop wondering and just wait...(although the MSM would never let that happen)

[HansB]

"A pick that is non-obvious but perfectly rational".

Couldn't agree more. Obama is a brilliant politician and he won't let the pundits decide for him. He'll do as the equally brilliant Clinton did in 1992: surprise everyone with a "how didn't we think of that" choice. (The pundits hadn't thought of Gore because they were so sure Clinton needed to "balance" his ticket generationally and geographically. They were wrong.)

I never hear anyone mention Barbara Boxer? Too progressive, too principled or too San Francisco?

[BatedBreath]

"The easiest choice of all would be to put Hillary Clinton on the ticket, but that would be a reluctant alliance that could produce extraordinary conflict on the campaign trail."

Not to mention the conflict in the WH.

[Paul C. Light - Huffpost Blogger]

Being vice president isn't always easy--notice how Gore always stood four steps back and to the right of Clinton. A good vice president keeps his or her mouth shut, reserving his or her advice for the president only. A good vice president also submerges his or her own ambition for the appropriate time. And a good vice president never countradicts the president in public or with staff present, even though he or she knows there may come a time when the president makes a very bad choice. I just can't imagine Clinton taking the role, and wonder how long it would be before her husband started speaking out for her. Very dangerous choice.

[McSameisthegame]

Seriously, why is this taking so long to get all the posts up and readable???

[rbloom]

I'm wondering why no one has mentioned Sen. Carl Levin in all this veep speculation. He's chair of Armed Services, blue-collar to the bone and would bring Michigan. I know he's getting up there in age, but so are Biden and Dodd and they're apparently in the running. Just a thought.

[Clairvaux]

A governor, yes, but let's make it Sebelius. That will help reinflate Hillary's supporters.

[BatedBreath]

Or not. They may resent the heck out of his choosing a woman who is not Hillary.

[KillTheMessenger]

Not really. Hillary's hardcore apologists don't need a woman in the White House. They need Hillary. They could not care less about any other choice but Hillary...

[Clairvaux]

Right. We have probably lost the hard core supporters, but there are a lot of women out there (not hard core) who would like to see Sebelius in the number two spot. Plus she is a very capable woman.

When the hard core feminists start thinking about Roe v. Wade going down the toilet they may undergo a conversion experience. I hope so.

[MTJD]

I really don't think that the vice-presidential pick would help Obama that much in pulling Clinton supporters back into the fold. The message from his camp and supporters seemes to be they don't need (or even want) her half of the party. Obama confirmed this when he didn't make any real effort to get Democrats in W.V and Kentucky. I have really been inpressed by Bill Crist of Florida as the VP nod for McCain, and as someone who can bring the GOP back to its roots. He's worked well across the aisle with Democrats, as McCain does, and he'd be able to take that state out of play in November for the Democrats, especially with the message of the Obama campaign that Floridian Democrats just don't count. Crist is an interesting man who, if McCain did not try for a second term, could probably run in his own right and reform the Republican party and remove the stain of Bush.

[Kilnockie]

Obama needs a serious foreign policy person. Notice the ONLY subjects Repubs are talking about are fear, foreign policy, and of course, fear. Right now Obama w/o a running mate has to spend all his time answering the attacks, and is unable to spend as much time on issues the Repubs cannot touch -- the economy, changing Washington, and of course, the economy.

While Sebelius, Richardson bring qualities in their own right, they do not serve the purpose of being able to forcefully rebut the fear, fear, fear tactics of the McCain/Bush camp. He needs Biden, Nunn, or Webb in that order IMHO.

[feminancy]

I agree with you, Kilnockie. Foreign policy experience is the most important consideration.

In addition to your good list... Biden, Nunn and Webb... how about Clark?

[SciVo]

Obama *is* the foreign policy guy on the ticket. He knows it as well as anyone -- certainly far better than John "Gaffe" McCain! I think that he needs a governor to bring more executive experience and hopefully economic expertise. Whoever it is also needs to reinforce his campaign themes of unity, hope and change. Demographics are relatively unimportant, since anyone would complement him one way or another. My short list for his VP (no particular order): Bill Richardson, Kathleen Sebelius, Tim Kaine, Janet Napolitano, and Brian Schweitzer.

[Paul C. Light - Huffpost Blogger]

I'm not feeling the love about Ed Rendell. What am I missing on that? He's on nobody's list, it seems. I know he said he didn't want to take the job several weeks ago, but is there some flaw with my logic? Help me out.

[SciVo]

I'll grant that I might be subconsciously biased against Rendell because of his support of Clinton. Of course, when we're talking about VP selection, that implies that Clinton isn't a consideration any more, so I'll take another look at him.

[BatedBreath]

I think his appeal to the blue collar guys is the attraction. Also, I seem to remember from the PA primary hearing pundits say that he is an excellent campaigner. Plus he has executive experience and has military service of some kind.

[rbloom]

Don't know that much about him, but my impression is not ready for prime time -- same with most of the governors. Didn't he kind of put his foot in his mouth a couple times in the runup to the primary? But I could be wrong.

[Samson1]

Obama is Not the foreigh policy guy to anyone outside of the Obama campaign. He cannot be compared with say Biden and is perceived as weak in Foreign Policy and Military policy by a lot of people outside of his supporters. I could see Gov. Rendell of PA as adding strength with middle class working people and maybe boosting support in his state. I would like to see a woman to maybe strengthen his appeal to many of the women supporting Clinton. These ARE real issues if he is to win this thing, He needs to bring the party back to gether and that will require work and probably compromise.

[aofh]

I agree with Samson1 that Obama is the foreign policy guy on the ticket. It is already a major issue because of his position of being willing to talk to enemies. That discussion has already started with supporting voices coming from various places. So he owns the foreign policy.

I think it would be good to choose someone who can keep the heat on the Repubs with the economy and health care. A governor would be best. I don't know much about Sebelius but I like what I'm hearing. Putting her in the number 2 spot would be a boost for women no matter how Nov turns out.